Probability Verification - Reliability Diagrams

Plots come up in a new window when you press plot curve(s).
The first plot may take 20 seconds to load. Subsequent plots are considerably faster.
To zoom any plot, click and drag across the region of interest.
To change how a curve appears, double-click (or right-click) on the curve's legend.
To change an axis, right-click on the axis.

Reliability Diagrams show the observed relative frequencies as a function of the forecasted probabilities.

The forecasted probabilities are binned in 10% intervals, with the bin midpoints being 5%, 15%, ..., 95%

For perfectly reliable forecasts, these paired quantities are equal, yielding all points in the diagram falling

on the diagonal line labeled "Perfect Reliability".

version history (new window) | Time Series (new window) | ROC Curves (new window) | CSI/Bias (new window)
Supported by Jeff Hamilton, 303-497-7312