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moisture over northwestern Mexico

Posted By: Todd Hutchinson
Date: 18-March-04 1730Z

Hi,

I noticed that in the NCEP operational RUC analyses from yesterday, 2 m mixing ratios were extremely high, up to 24 g/kg (results in a dew point of about 78 F at 960 mb). Mixing ratios began increasing at 18Z (17 Mar), peaked at 00Z, and were back down to reasonable values (about 7 g/kg) by 6Z (18 Mar). This resulted in the RUC generating convection in the region--no convection was observed. You can look at a few plots of mixing ratios at:

ftp://wsiftp.wsicorp.com/Pub/Forecast/tahutchinson/

This occurred over a relatively large area (several hundred square kilometers). Unfortunately, I could not find one surface observation in the region. The satellite picture from 00Z was completely clear--so, not convection was occurring.

I don't believe that the dew points could possibly be this high--could something have gone wrong in the RUC assimilation?

Thanks,

Todd

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