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Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forum

RUC mixed layer height, PA, 10/19/2003

Posted By: Jonathan Gere
Date: 20-October-03 2313Z

A stupid glider pilot question:

Fair weather cu with bases at 5000-6000 ft AGL on Sunday afternoon, Oct 19th in central PA. This after a dry cold front passed as forecast in late morning. 6 hr RUC forecast for 18Z had mixed layer depth of 2500-3500 ft.

Any easy to understand cause for the pessimistic forecast?

Thanks,
Jonathan Gere

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