Quasi-Operational Weather Data via the Web: Implementation and Issues
Presentation by William
Moninger of NOAA's Forecast Systems
Laboratory at NOAATech
2000 October 19 - 21, 1999, Silver Spring, MD
Two FSL efforts
FSL's mission is to develop new techniques to improve operational weather
forecasting.
Two efforts to discuss today:
-
A traditional one that has recently made productive emergency
use of the internet
-
A non-traditional one that would not exist without
the World Wide Web
RUC - the Rapid Update Cycle
-
A national-scale weather prediction model, developed at FSL and run
operationally at NCEP
-
NCEP runs models centrally and sends the results to NWS Forecast Offices
and others
-
Forecasters view model results using special workstations (AWIPS)
RUC operations are traditional
The RUC data are distributed just as they might have been 20 years ago:
over dedicated leased lines, to special-purpose computers.
These workstations can't even access the
internet, because of security concerns
FSL website
FSL maintains a RUC website (called
MAPS
at FSL)
Sept. 27, 1999 - Fire destroys NCEP's large CRAY
Operational RUC runs ceased, lower-resolution backup runs started
quickly at NCEP.
Although forecasters could have accessed full model results from FSL
over the web, they did not.
-
It is hard for forecasters to get to the web
-
Forecasters like to overlay graphics from multiple sources
-
Forecasters are very busy, and it takes valuable
time to establish new routines
Nonetheless, the internet and web were crucial
NCEP and FSL had been laying the groundwork to establish
full-resolution backup runs at FSL, so some infrastructure was already
in place.
-
model results from FSL are now transferred to the Weather Service distribution
point over the internet (not leased lines)
-
initial concerns about bandwidth issues proved groundless (4
Gigabytes per day causes no noticeable slowing of the net)
-
the web forum kept people
informed; rapid feedback from the field helped debug the system
-
the RUC was available again on forecaster workstations within
days
The FSL ACARS display
This interactive web page shows over 50K weather
observations per day from commercial aircraft.
-
near major hubs this provides high-resolution upper air data
unavailable
elsewhere
-
access is restricted at the airlines' request
-
used over 200 times per day at over 70 sites
-
NWS forecasters often must use "administrative" computers to access the
site
-
ACARS are mentioned often in official Forecast
Discussions
The site is at http://acweb.fsl.noaa.gov/
(available to all NOAA sites)
The ACARS/RAOB Assessment
-
addresses the controversial question: "can we eliminate
some radiosondes?"
-
~20 NWS offices use the ACARS display to forecast, and keep records of
how it helps forecasting
-
Therefore, the FSL ACARS website plays a critical role in
this official NWS activity.
Plusses and Minuses of web-centric applications
Pluses:
-
very cheap: designed and operated by one person half-time
-
very easy to upgrade
-
as new data become available (e.g., humidity)
-
as needs are articulated
-
as new technology (e.g., java) becomes available
-
very easy to track usage patterns (with special logs)
-
easy to receive feedback (another web-based forum)
-
uptime compares well with NCEP
-
secure enough
Minuses:
-
not integrated with other products on the official NWS workstation
-
no established backup infrastructure
-
no established management control. This causes
concern (but has yet to cause problems with operation of the site).
Conclusion
-
Web-based applications put the conflict between flexibility
and structure into sharp relief
-
FSL, as a development lab, is well-positioned to take advantage of the
Web
-
Offices that have a more operational mission are justifiably concerned
that the Web is flexible and unpredictable
-
Applying technology is relatively easy and has been very successful
-- the challenge is to manage web applications
without rendering them inflexible through bureaucracy