Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forum
Poor 2m Dewpoint Forecasts
Posted By: Mike Dross
Date: 25-May-04 2321Z
I have noticed that the 2meter dewpoint forecasts across the Piedmont of the Carolinas has been very poor of late. The actual dewpoints have been running in the lower to middle 60s. The RUC20 initializes them too high and by the 6 to 12 hour forecast predicts lower to middle 70s across the region. This has a signicant impact on the forecasted LI's and CAPE's, CINH etc.
I suspect the problem is associated with the model predicting too much evapotranspiration. The soil moisture values across the region are low due to drier than normal conditions the last 6 months. I suspect this problem is occuring in other parts of the country.
Is there a process where an investiation into this error can be started?
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