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Posted by Rob Dale on 12 Sep 00, 18:49 MT
Any idea why the RUC CAPEs have such a problem with reality? The 15Z run on Monday 9/11 forecast values of 3500-4000 over southern Michigan at 00Z on the 12th. 00Z Analysis CAPE = 0.
The 00Z run then forecast for 09Z on the 12th values of 3000-3500. 09Z Analysis CAPE = 0.
I noticed this all season long over the Great Lakes -- is it a regional thing or does the model as a whole not do well with convective potential?
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