Any idea why the RUC CAPEs have such a problem with reality? The 15Z run on Monday 9/11 forecast values of 3500-4000 over southern Michigan at 00Z on the 12th. 00Z Analysis CAPE = 0.

The 00Z run then forecast for 09Z on the 12th values of 3000-3500. 09Z Analysis CAPE = 0.

I noticed this all season long over the Great Lakes -- is it a regional thing or does the model as a whole not do well with convective potential?

Rob