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Message: Re: revised CAPE/CIN in implemented in RUC2

Posted by John B. on 9 Jul 98, 16:47 MT, in response to Re: revised CAPE/CIN in implemented in RUC2, posted by Paul Sisson on 8 Jul 98, 14:47 MT

The excessive CAPE in the analyses
is a problem we are concerned about,
one that we have also noticed frequently,
and that Phillip Bothwell of
SPC has also pointed out. Examination of the gridded
soundings from the analysis and comparing with
first-guess fields points to a lack of consistency
between the virtual potential temperature and the
mixing ratio near the surface in the analysis that does not come from
the first guess. This is consistent with what
Paul Sisson notes, that the forecast soundings
look much more reasonable in such regions.
The problem is therefore somehow introduced during
data ingest, quality control or the analysis,
but does not occur everywhere, nor all the time.
The exact source of this is under investigation.
If the fix proves to be simple,
then we will try to get it into the RUC as soon as
we can. If the fix requires adding complexity to
the analysis, then, because of our cpu constraints at
NCEP, we will probably not be able to fix this
problem soon. Meanwhile, I would view any
areas of excessive CAPE in the analysis with suspicion
unless they are also present in forecasts made previously and
valid at the time of the analysis.

John B.

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