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Message: Re: revised CAPE/CIN in implemented in RUC2

Posted by Paul Sisson on 8 Jul 98, 14:47 MT, in response to Re: revised CAPE/CIN in implemented in RUC2, posted by Michael Dross on 15 Jun 98, 21:17 MT

I waited a while to post this message but now it seems that this is a
recurring problem. We look at the Cape analysis and Forecast Cape field from the RUC2. We have noticed a large change between the analysis and the subsequent forecast(F003) of the same field. We use the non-operational 40-km output at OSO and use Cape%none@0 in gempak which should be the "best" cape.
Today at 18Z at analysis time there is a 3000+ bullseye on the north shore of
lake Erie. At 21z(max heating) the cape is less than 200 in this area. This
pattern is repeated at all times of the day. Any clues? It appears that
the forecast values are more realistic(conservative?) than the analysis.



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