Hi Dan,

Thanks for sending in the message. The CAPE for forecasts was changed a few hours after the forecast that you referred to, so I hope that is a bit better now. The problem was not in the model itself but in the CAPE diagnostic routine used. An older version was being used for the fcst output only, and that is what we changed on Tuesday morning. The initial reports from SPC, in particular, are that RUC2 CAPE fcsts are somewhat better now with the Tues AM change.

As of this morning, the precipitable water was added to the isobaric main output. There is some explanation of how this is derived, along with explanations of some other RUC2 variables, at http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov/vartxt.cgi

On the winds backing, is it acting as if the frictional effects over Florida are too strong? The vegetation type of most of the Florida peninsula in RUC2 is cultivated land, and the roughness length is 7.5 cm, which is relatively low. Is there any diurnal variation to this behavior? Any other clues would be helpful.

Thanks for your comments. Stan