Wind-related forecast discussions

WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO SOUTHERN MN AND CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ALL ASSOCIATED OVERUNNING PRECIP NORTH OF IL. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM MS RIVER EAST IN RESPONSE TO CA TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. RIDGING SHOULD KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF IL WITH POSSIBILITY OF REMNANTS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY EVENTUALLY GETTING INTO NORTHWEST PART OF STATE AND ADJACENT IA LATE TONIGHT.

BESIDES AFOS BASICS...ONLY NGM BUFKIT DATA AVAILABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME FLAT CU DEVELOPMENT BUT NON OBSERVED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY. FWC CAN'T MAKE UP ITS MIND WITH THE CLDS GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. FEELING IS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY STATEWIDE.

NGM SOUNDINGS KEEP CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS IL UNTIL ERODED BY MID LEVEL COOLING ON FRIDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY. THIS SHOWS UP DRAMATICALLY IN THE FRH DATA. ESPECIALLY FOR MLI WHERE BEST 4 LAYER LI DROPS FROM +1 AT 18Z FRI TO -10 AT 00Z SAT.

RE WINDS. 88D AND PROFILERS HAVE SIGNIFICANT AC (AVIAN CONTAMINATION) AS WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND WX PATTERN. AIRCRAFT SOUNDING WINDS OUT OF RFD SUGGEST ABT 15KT CONTRIBUTION DUE TO THE BIRDS WITH 30 TO 50 KT WINDS 2 TO 3 K FEET ABOVE SURFACE.THESE WINDS WILL HAVE NO TROUBLE MIXING DOWN SO WILL MENTION GUSTS TO 40 MPH TODAY. HIGH WINDS ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY AFTERNOON.

T SEELEY

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO: ANOTHER THREAT OF HIGH WIND IN THE FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING AS 50-60 KNOTS OF CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT AND STABLE MOUNTAIN TOP LAYER. LOCAL ACARS SOUNDING FROM 08Z SHOWS A SHARP STABLE LAYER JUST ABOVE 650 MB WITH 60-75 KNOT WINDS BETWEEN 600 AND 550MB. APPEARS HIGH WIND THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS...SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WARNING AT THIS TIME BUT WILL MENTION GUSTS TO 70 MPH IN ZONE FORECAST. FROM LATEST RUC...MOUNTAIN WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY 18Z AS VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR INCREASES AND MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER LIFTS.

TEMPERATURES LOOK PRETTY WARM AGAIN WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW. COULD APPROACH A RECORD (74 IN DENVER) IF WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. USING DRY ADIABAT DOWN FROM 600MB ON 18Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET VERY CLOSE. WILL BE SLIGHTLY CONSERVATIVE THOUGH CONSIDERING SOME WAVE CLOUDS AND COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AFT 18Z.

BARJENBRUCH

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO: HIGH WIND EVENT FOR TONIGHT LOOKS JUSTIFIED AS ALL INDICATORS NOW REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA...I.E. WRKGRD AND SANGSTER VALUES HIGH ENUF TO BE IN WARNING STAGE. FURTHERMORE LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOUNTAIN TOP INVERSION HAS DVLPD AND MODEL PROGS INDICATE IT WILL PERSIST UNTIL 18Z WED. ALSO HAVE REPORTS OF 90 MPH AT WONDERVUE AND 68 MPH AT CARTER LAKE. QUESTION IS WHETHER TO EXTEND WARNING WARNING BYND TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. PER COORDINATION WITH LONG TERM FORECASTER BELIEVE EVENT WILL BE DCRSNG ENUF IN MRNG HOURS TO HANG LOOSE FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE. WINDS WILL KEEP AMS WELL MIXED TNGT SO LOW TEMPS TO BE A PROBLEM. CERTAINLY WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL. SINCE MODLES SHOW PLENTY OF WIND WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE AND SPLIT THE DIFF BETWEEN FAN AND FWC FOR DEN. WILL BE WARMER NR THE FTHLS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL BE EVEN GREATER. AS FOR POPS SEE NO REASON TO GO ANY HIER THAN SCT.

BOODA

PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY STILL 70 MILES W OF NAPLES WITH A FEW SHOWERS N OF THE DRY TORTUGAS AND INLAND COLLIER COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY PROBABLY WON'T REACH THE SW COAST TIL AFT 11 PM AND THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS TIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH SW FL BY SUNRISE AND SE FL BY 9AM.

MIA 88D VWP CURRENTLY SHOWING BAD WIND DATA WITH A S WND AT 55 KT @ 3000 FT. ACARS WIND DATA SHOWS ONLY 25 TO 30 KT.

COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SE COAST BY 9AM. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW.

FOR EVENING UPDATE...THE ONLY ITEM I WILL CHC WILL BE TO LWR THE WINDS A TAD OVER THE MNLD.

NEW TORNADO WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR BASICALLY THE SAME AREAS AS LAST WATCH.

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO: MODERATE TO STRONG NWLY WINDS CONT AT ALL LEVELS ABOVE CO AS THE PACNW UPR LVL JET MOVES TOWARDS WY AND MT. WINDS ARND THE FCST AREA HAVE BEEN GENERALLY DECREASING IN STRENGTH THRU THE AFTN AND A RECENT ACARS SOUNDING FROM KDEN SHOWS THE MTN TOP LVL INVERSION (600MB) HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED SINCE 16Z. WSR-88D IS STILL SHOWING A WEAK MTN WAVE SIGNATURE THOUGH...WITH A WX STATION NEAR WARD (SWRN BOULDER COUNTY) SHOWING SW WINDS 28G43 MPH. CROSS SECTIONS FROM ET...NGM AND ESPECIALLY THE RUC SHOW THE MTN WAVE RE-INTENSIFYING THIS EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS ALSO BEGINNING TO INCREASE.WILL BE LETTING THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS IS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH MTN WAVE CLDNS AT TIMES WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE. THIS WAS PICKED UP BY THE MOS GUID WHICH WAS ACCEPTED. ANY MSTR IN THE MODELS IS ALL AT HIGH LVLS...SO MENTION OF PCPN WL BE MINIMAL...AND ONLY IN THE MTNS.

KDRBY

COMPOSITE GMS/GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE VERY STRONG 300MB EASTERN PACIFIC JET ALONG 37N. SHORT TERM MODELS AND SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT WHILE THE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS ZONAL WITH TIME...THE ZONAL INDEX WILL REMAIN HIGH PUSHING STRONG PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS INTO CLAIFORNIA. THROUGH MONDAY WASHINGTON GETS BRUSHED BY WEAKENING NEGATIVELY-TILTED NORTHERN STREAM OCCLUSIONS. FIRST WEAKENING OCCLUSION MOVING ONTO SRN OREGON COAST AT 08Z MAKES IT TO KKSEA AROUND 18Z THEN INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SSMI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT.

.WESTERN WASHINGTON...SSMI RAIN RATE PRODUCT SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS APPROACHING STATE BUT PACIFIC NORTHWEST RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING CUT BACK BY INCREASING OFFSHORE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF NEGATIVELY TILTED OCCLUSION. STILL EXPECT SOME RAIN TODAY WITH FRONT FOLLOWED BY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS GRADIENTS TURN ONSHORE AND H85 FLOW BECOMES WSW. OFFSHORE GRADIENTS INCREASING WITH APPROACH OF FRONT THIS MORNING BUT KOTX AND ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCOMPATIBLE WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WEST SLOPES CASCADES. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT GOING MAINLY INTO OREGON...WILL CONFINE THUNDERSTORM THREATS TODAY TO SOUTH COAST.

ALBRECHT

DRY NW/N FLOW PATTERN OVR SRN CA FOR TODAY AND THU. RESIDUAL MSTR WL KP LOW CLOUDS/FOG BANKED UP ALG N MTN SLOPES NEXT TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. GUSTY NW WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY...BUT MOSTLY BLO WAD LVLS...SO WL DROP WADS ALL AREAS. ACARS DATA SUPPORTS THIS WITH SOUNDINGS AROUND 08Z SHOWING WINDS BLO 800MB GENERALLY 25 KT OR LESS.

WL CONTINUE HEAVY SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE SWELL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO SRN CA CST WITH CSTL BUOYS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 18 TO 20 FEET OFF CNTRL CST...AND 10 TO 12 FEET OVER THE INNER WATERS. SWELL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS TRENDING STEADILY DOWNWARD THROUGH FRIDAY.

MARTIN

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC CONTINUES AS ADVERTISED BY THE GUIDANCE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE SEASONAL CONSOLIDATED ONSHORE FLOW AND BRIEF WET SPELL IN CONTRAST TO THE RIDGING AND SPLIT FLOW THAT HAS DOMINATED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

.WRN WA...INCOMING SPLITTING FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS REMNANT OF STRONG RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP QPF QUITE LOW THROUGH TONIGHT. VAD WIND PROFILE...SOUNDINGS AND ACARS DATA SHOW SLY WND AT 1-2KFT 30-40 KT AHEAD OF INCOMING FRONT MIXING TO SFC RESULTING IN MORE WIND THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. HENCE BUMPING PREFRONTAL WINDS AND ISSUING GALE WARNING ADMIRALTY INLET. WILL CONTINUE WSW FOR OVERUNNING SYS PROMISED FOR MON STREAKING EWD TO NR 138W AT 16Z AS SHOWN ON SAT LOOPS WITH ANOTHER ON ITS HEELS FOR LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE. THESE TWO SYS APPEAR WETTER THAN INDICATED BY PREV FCST OACKAGE...PARTICULARY S SLOPES OLYMPICS WHERE WHERE 40-50 KT SSW H85 FLOW WILL AID UPSLOPE. WILL UPDATE QPS...PARTICULARY FOR ABERDEEN...TO SEE IF RA WILL IMPACT SKOKOMISH SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR POSSIBLY WATCH. WILL ALSO NEED TO EVALUATE ANTICIPATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR CASCDS/OLYMPICS TO DETERMINE IF WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

ALBRECHT

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO: LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC HIGH WIND EVENT FOR IN AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM ACARS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NICE MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER COMBINED WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT. REVERSE SPEED SHEAR ALSO NOTED ON MODEL CROSS SECTIONS WHICH INDICATES IDEAL SETUP FOR HEALTHY MOUNTAIN WAVE. FLOW JUST ABOVE STABLE LAYER INCREASES INTO THE 50-60 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z SO WOULD EXPECT HIGH WINDS BY THEN. FLOW INCREASES EVEN MORE TONIGHT SO A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WEST OF I-25.

HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO INCREASING ACROSS THE STATE SO WILL WORD AS PARTLY CLOUDY BUT SHOULD BE A GENERAL INCREASING TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD.

BARJENBRUCH

WATER VAPOR AND IR STAELLITE IMGRY CLEARLY SHOWING STG E CNTRL PAC JET PUSHING SYSTEMS INTO CNTRL AND NRN CA WITH PAC NW DOMINATED BY BLOCKING RIDGE OVR SWRN CANADA. 12Z AVN PREFERRED AS IT KEEPS STG DVLPMT WELL TO THE S OF THE STATE FOR CONTINUATION OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND VERY LGT PCPN AMOUNTS THRU EARLY TUE AT LEAST. PROBLEMS OF THE DAY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DYAS: 1. HOW MUCH ERLY FLOW ACROSS CASCDS FOR GAP WIND PROBLEMSW SLOPES CASCDS AS SPLITTING NEG TILT SHORTWAVE MOVES NWD ACROSS STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT? 2. HOW MUCH PCPN CAN FALL WHEN CROSS CASCD ELY GRADIENTS ARE SO LARGE LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT?

.WRN WA...WHILE OFSHR GRADIENTS WEAKENED OVERNIGHT THEY REMAINED SUFFICIENT TO KEEP EXPOSED LOCATIONS SUCH AS KSEA QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. ELY GRADIENTS ARE ONCE AGAIN INCREASING AS NEG TILT SHORTWAVE APCHS FROM THE S WITH KSEW REPORTING E20KT SUSTAINED AT 1630Z. NO FLOW REVERSAL SEEN ON ACARS SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SO FOR NOW WILL LIMIT W SLOPE CASCD WINDS TO GAP VARIETY. WILL HEADLINE W SLOPES CASCDS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS JUST BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA. STG DONWSLOPE TO PROVIDE VERY MILD CONDS WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 60 TODAY MANY LOCATIONS...JUST BLO RECORD LVLS. MOS POPS TOO WET SO WILL GENERALLY CONT WITH PREV FCST WITH ABOVE EXCEPTIONS.

ALBRECHT

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: THOSE DARN WINDS PLAYING HAVOC AGAIN! PLATTEVILL PROFILER SHOWING SHOWING 50KT DOWN TO 700MB...WHILE ACARS SOUNDINGS IN AND AROUND THE AREA SHOWING 50-60KT UP AROUND TO AROUND 12K. CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE RUC SHOWING 40-50KT COMPONENT ALONG SURFACING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE MTN TOP STABILITY WAS WEAKENING...BUT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER FOR A LITTLE WHILE THIS AFTN. MESA LAB IN BOULDER ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 60 MPH. SN/BLO SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AS MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING LITE SNOW BUT WITH THE WINDS GOING...IT'S A MESS.

ENTREKIN

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO: HAVE ALREADY POSTED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WEST OF I-15 THROUGH NOON TODAY. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...STABLE MOUNTAIN TOP LAYER...LACK OF SPEED SHEAR...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALL PROMOTE A HEALTHY AND EFFICIENT MOUNTAIN WAVE THIS MORNING. ACARS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STABLE LAYER IS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 700 MB AND WINDS SPEEDS OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER ALSO BACKS UP THESE SPEEDS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALREADY GUSTING INTO THE 60S AND JUST RECEIVED A CALL FROM CARTER LAKE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 80 TO 90 MPH AT 313AM.

WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE GRADIENT AND UPPER FLOW SLOWLY DECREASE. IN ADDITION...MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER ALSO LIFTS AND WEAKENS PER MODEL CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE WARNING EXPIRE AT NOON. LATER SHIFTS CAN MONITOR PROGRESSION AND TRENDS OF THE WIND EVENT. ON THE EASTERN PLAINS...WINDS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EALRY AFTERNOON AS BORA TYPE PATTERN SETS UP.

VERY MILD TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE EAST WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS. ALREADY 55F IN BOULDER AND LOUISVILLE. COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED TO KEEP A LID ON TEMPS AND MAYBE EVEN FALL A FEW DEGREES LATE IN THE DAY.

BARJENBRUCH