Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/15/24
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1055 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
...New Short Term...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update: /Status Of Severe Tstorm Watch 46/
A cold front is currently moving slowly southeast toward the I-20
corridor and the western/northern DFW Metroplex late this
evening. A few weak cells have tried to go up on the front across
western North Texas and are struggle south of Hwy 380 through
Central Texas thanks in large part to a more substantial and warm
elevated mixed layer (EML/capping inversion) across this region.
Collaboration with SPC confirms this fact and with the watch
expiring by midnight, there was no need to continue southwestern
portions of the Watch.
The only counties within the Metro I left in were along Hwy 380
from Denton Co to Hunt Co and east of Hwy 75/I-35E which will
include Rockwall and Kaufman Co(s). Both Tarrant/Dallas counties
and the remainder of Metro counties are no longer in the watch.
SPC has not elaborated on any new watch issuances were planned
overnight and rightfully are taking a wait and see approach on
frontal development and ahead of the front within the more capped
areas of Central Texas.
No other significant changes were needed and a new forecast
update is expected to be issued by 1 a.m. CDT for the overnight
period into Friday.
05/Marty
Previous Discussion:
Update:
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until midnight
tonight. Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the open
warm sector in North Texas ahead of a frontal boundary currently
positioned from NW Arkansas to SW Oklahoma. The environment will
remain favorable for very large hail with any thunderstorms that
develop through this evening. Weak low-level wind shear will keep
the tornado threat on the low end. However, we will continue to
monitor this potential due to impressive instability overhead,
especially with any right-moving supercells. Additional
thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes through
North and Central Texas later tonight with periodic chances for
showers and storms during the day Friday. See the discussion below
for more detailed information regarding the remainder of the
short-term forecast period.
Langfeld
Previous Discussion:
Today through Friday Afternoon/
As of this writing, showers and storms have formed along a dryline
just west of our Big Country counties. convection will remain
possible in the northwest as the dryline continues to move
eastward. Large hail and damaging winds remain the main threats.
Uncertainty remains on whether or not early afternoon storms will
fire up out near the dryline when it reaches closer as it moves
further into the region, as continued mesoscale lift will be
needed to completely erode the 850mb warm nose. Though continuing
to scatter, any lingering clouds atop our western counties will
play a factor in daytime heating and destabilization. Current
ACARS soundings show that the cap over DFW is still there, but has
significantly eroded since the 12Z RAOB. This conditionality will
keep rain chances closer to the I-35 low, as most guidance does
not have storms forming until late afternoon. As such, will
continue to advertise a low isolated chance for storms. If a
parcel of air were able to overcome the cap and produce a storm,
large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.
The main show for today will likely take place late this afternoon
into this evening. As of current guidance, most CAMs are favoring a
later bloom of convection near the I-35 corridor around 5-6 PM this
evening. The locations that have the best chance to observe severe
weather are generally near and east of a Gainesville-Waco-Athens
curve, where HREF guidance shows the majority of members
initializing convection. Forecast soundings indicate a free-
convecting atmosphere with abundant CAPE, deep layer shear, and
steep mid-level lapse rates between 8-9 degrees. This environment
will promote severe storms capable of primarily large hail and
damaging wind gusts. A tertiary tornado threat will be present and
cannot be discounted, especially in the northeast (near/east
I-35, north I-20), where SPC currently has a 5-10% risk. Over the
afternoon and evening, storms will move northeast.
Meanwhile well to our north, a shortwave disturbance will move to
the northeast, sending its attendant cold front southward through
the Central Plains. Currently, the front is draped across Southern
Colorado and Kansas, and will continue to slowly move towards the
Red River today. The front will eventually reach the Red River
around 11PM-12AM, becoming a mesoscale focus for additional
shower and storms tonight. Best chances for precipitation
will be in the East/northeast overnight into Friday morning, with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats and a tertiary
tornado threat.
A shortwave disturbance will transit around the quasi-stationary
cut-off low over the Desert Southwest, increasing isentropic
ascent overtop the post-frontal airmass and allowing for morning
SW-NE moving clusters. The front will end up slowing as it moves
across Central Texas, eventually stalling just south of our CWA
border by Friday afternoon. This boundary will become a focus for
afternoon storm development across Central and South Texas. There
is a severe threat with the afternoon activity, but the location
heavily depends on the location of the front. Nonetheless, hail
and damaging winds will be the main threats.
Prater
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 340 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024/
/This Weekend Through Next Week/
An upstream cut-off low over the Desert Southwest will maintain
unsettled weather until its eventual ejection through the Southern
Plains late next week. While the bulk of the rainfall will be
through this weekend, unseasonably cloudy conditions and periodic
rain chances will persist next week.
After a series of sunny and pleasant weekends, the final weekend
of astronomical winter won`t be the best for outdoor activities.
Saturday will be quite wet as overrunning moisture feeds a passing
disturbance. Widespread showers and embedded storms will spread
southwest to northeast across the region during the daylight hours
and into Saturday evening. Adequate cell motion will limit
residence time, but positive precipitable water anomalies will
enhance precipitation efficiency. Rainfall totals Saturday are not
expected to be extraordinary, but following previous rounds of
heavy rainfall on Thursday and Friday, some flooding issues could
arise.
A reinforcing front will arrive on Sunday, providing yet another
chance for showers and storms. The dry advection will invade from
the northeast, keeping the better rain chances from the Big
Country into Central Texas. A lone rain-free day will follow on
Monday during which the sun should re-emerge. Rain chances will
steadily increase thereafter, culminating on Thursday when the
decaying trough upstream finally ejects, tracking directly
overhead.
25
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 702 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024/
/00Z TAFs/
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed across North
Texas in the open warm sector ahead of a frontal boundary
currently positioned from NW Arkansas to SW Oklahoma. We will
maintain VCTS in the TAFs for the next few hours due to the more
scattered nature of this pre-frontal convection. Increasing
thunderstorm coverage is expected along the cold front as it
pushes through North and Central Texas later tonight. We have this
denoted by a TEMPO TSRA group after 05Z tonight at the D10
terminals. The environment remains favorable for large hail,
frequent lightning, and gusty winds for any thunderstorms that
develop through this evening. Reduced visibilities and lowered
cigs are also likely with any storms that directly impact the
terminals.
Widespread MVFR cigs are expected late tonight into Friday
morning. Southerly winds will turn north-northwesterly behind the
cold front (~04Z for D10 and ~09Z for KACT). Another round of
elevated thunderstorms is possible Thursday morning. The severe
weather threat looks low with this round, but a few stronger cores
could produce small hail and lightning.
Langfeld
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 58 68 52 67 55 / 70 50 20 50 40
Waco 62 69 56 66 58 / 60 70 30 60 50
Paris 58 67 50 68 53 / 100 20 10 20 30
Denton 55 66 48 66 51 / 80 40 10 50 30
McKinney 57 67 50 67 53 / 90 30 20 40 40
Dallas 58 68 53 67 56 / 70 50 20 50 40
Terrell 60 68 53 67 55 / 80 50 20 40 50
Corsicana 63 71 57 69 59 / 70 60 30 50 60
Temple 63 71 55 67 57 / 60 60 30 70 60
Mineral Wells 54 66 49 64 51 / 50 60 20 60 30
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
928 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Potential to see severe weather develop this evening into the
early overnight hours.
- Breezy during daytime Saturday-Monday, gusts at least 20-30 mph
- Much colder early week, hard freeze expected Monday Night
&&
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Active atmosphere across Central Indiana this evening, and the
is poised to persist. Diving deeper into the atmospheric conditions
shows the strongest atmospheric instability still focused northeast
of Indy Metro where the gradient of 0-3km helicity is in excess of
250 m2/s2 but the winds have veered marginally which should allow
the helicity to be slightly on the decline over the next hour or
two. This should allow a few of the stronger updrafts to possibly
produce an isolated tornado; however, the larger concern remains on
large hail and damaging winds as a threat. Hodographs compared from
IND to ILN suggests a more favorable environment further east, which
could also support the earlier indication that Central Indiana is
seeing the gradient shift east and on a decline for helicity.
Aircraft data into IND indicates the speed layer within the 825-
700mb layer. Once parcels reach this layer though the potential
energy remains available, with MUCAPE around 1000J/Kg. That being
said the trend has been downward in time. Mid-Lvl lapse rates
continue to be supportive downstream of the line of convection, so
if convection can catch-up to this unstable environment large hail
could still be a concern.
Beyond the convective concerns hydro is equally a concern given the
forward propagation of the convection and juicy environment.
Moisture transport in the mid-lvls is poised to persist along and
downstream of the current line of convection in Central Indiana.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
The Tornado Watch has been cancelled over roughly areas north of I-
70 as the front has sagged down to south of a Muncie to Clinton
line. PoPs in good shape based on radar and CAMs. Convection will
gradually end from northwest to southeast tonight into Friday
morning. See the latest Mesoscale Discussion for more Info.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Quiet weather conditions are expected over the next hour or two
across the area due to mesoscale subsidence behind the QLCS which
moved through earlier in the day. ACARS soundings show a weak cap
just above 850mb from the subsidence. While this is currently
inhibiting convection, low-level theta-e advection ahead of an
advancing cold front and daytime heating will erode the cap. A
additional convection is expected to initiate around the 4-5pm period
this afternoon. Moderate instability up to 2500 J/KG of MLCAPE and
strong effective bulk-shear will be supportive for supercells this
evening. Damaging wind gusts, large to very large hail, and isolated
tornadoes are possible with these storms. In addition, training
storms could lead to localized flooding.
Upscale growth is likely during the evening and storms should
gradually move southeast. The threat for severe weather should
quickly begin to diminish around midnight as the better instability
shift south. Scattered showers and storms are still likely to
continue south of I-70 through the late overnight hours due to how
slow the cold front is moving.
By Friday morning, look for the front to be in the process of
exiting the area. Showers may still be ongoing over southern
counties along and just ahead of the cold front. Other than morning
showers across the south, surface high pressure building in will
provide quiet weather conditions for the end of the work week. Look
for clouds to quickly clear during the afternoon once drier air
filters in. This will provide some slight warming. However, cloud
cover early in the day combined with cold air advection should
greatly limit diurnal heating. Highs will range from the low to mid
50s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Friday night through Sunday...
Essentially dry and breezy conditions will be the rule through this
weekend as the region transitions to at least a brief colder pattern.
Cooler high pressure centered over the Rockies will build eastward
into the region...although the more distinct feature will be a
rather potent cyclone sliding east across southern Canada, fueled by
a stronger late-winter upper trough plunging down the Upper Midwest
on Saturday.
Associated stronger, yet moisture-starved cold front to cross the
CWA around Saturday evening. Wind gusts should peak during daylight
hours around 20-30 mph each day, both from the SW ahead of the
boundary SAT... and then from more WNW/NW directions through early
next week.
Monday through Thursday...
Mainly dry conditions will be the rule through most of the next
workweek as rather broad Canadian surface high pressure progresses
from the northern Plains to the Gulf coast by the mid-week. This
ridge will suppress most Gulf moisture while upper forcing is
limited to a deeper/more amplified trough that will cross the
Midwest Monday...before a broad zonal pattern takes over while
slowly see-sawing from chilly northwesterly to more seasonable
westerly flow.
While guidance is continuing to show at least a 24-hour period
around the Monday timeframe with H850 temperatures below the
critical negative 8 degrees level to initiate convective snow
showers...recent trends are favoring less-organized forcing so have
removed slight chance POPs for time being...although wet snow
flurries will certainly be possible, especially over the region`s
northeastern half which will be downwind of flow off of southern
Lake Michigan. Passing weak waves embedded in the arriving zonal
pattern around the Tuesday timeframe will favor variable cloudiness
with ceilings more likely over northern portions of the Midwest.
Readings will be mainly near to slightly below normal past what
should be a chillier day Monday with highs in mainly the 35-40F
range under the passing trough. And what should be widespread 25-
30F minimums both Sunday night and Monday night. Any early
vegetation would be at risk during pre-dawn hours, although
sustained winds of at least 5-10 mph would at least discourage frost
formation.
Chances for what may be more conversational/light rain return around
the Thursday timeframe as the overall split upper flow supports a
weak southern wave lifting towards the region from the southern
Plains.
Staunch zonal flow along the northern CONUS should prevent the ridge-
building that has lead to frequent unseasonably mild conditions over
the past month...with instead slight moderation only allowing highs
in the 50s across the CWA Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 638 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Impacts:
- SW winds sustained to 30 knots, gusts to 50 knots and hail
to an inch and larger possible in thunderstorms this evening
- MVFR and brief IFR conditions also possible in thunderstorms
this evening
Discussion:
Strong and severe thunderstorms will continue to develop this
evening, especially near and south of a front that will move
southeast across the terminals tonight. There will be lingering
showers and possibly weaker thunderstorms the remainder of the night
with MVFR conditions possible. Finally, the threat for convection
will end Friday morning, but MVFR ceilings may linger in the wake of
the front.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Beach
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...MK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
955 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Slight to marginal risk for severe storms again overnight. Timing
looks to be between 03z to 10z as a west to east oriented line of
strong to severe storms works from the northwest to the southeast
across southern IN through central KY.
* Potential impacts include damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an
isolated spin-up tornado.
* Unseasonably cool Monday through Wednesday, with subfreezing
temperatures possible each morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Sfc analysis this evening reveals the sfc cold front boundary
stretching from northern Texas to Lake Erie, with plenty of deep
moisture convergence ahead of it. This broken QLCS is responsible
for warnings from Texas to Pennsylvania. Ahead of that line, the
warm sector is characterized by sfc dewpoints near 60F, and sfc
temperatures near 70F. SPC RAP Mesoanalysis depicts roughly 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE in far western KY, and tapering off to 500 J/kg over
the Bluegrass. With a gradual eastward progression of the frontal
boundary and associated convection, expect this line to approach our
NW forecast areas within the next 1-2 hours. We are beginning to see
some isolated WAA radar echoes popping up ahead of the line within
the unstable warm sector, which was suggested by earlier runs of the
HRRR. This could help eat away at that low level inversion, setting
up a better sfc-based environment across central KY and southern IN.
With the loss of daytime heating though, do expect to see MLCAPE
slowly weaken through the rest of tonight. Model soundings, and SPC
Mesoanalysis, are picking up on a shallow cap near the sfc, with
SBCIN values around -150 J/kg. However, this line appears to
continue to move through a highly favorable environment, with strong
DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg across central Kentucky. Shear values
remain strong as well, with approximately 50 kts of effective bulk
shear across our northern CWA. It`s also worth noting that
convection is not as discrete as in the prior hours, most notable
with the cluster that is moving into southwest Indiana. Expect
damaging wind gusts to be our primary threat going forward, but with
WoFs suggesting we`ll see an increase in low level shear as the line
approaches, can`t rule out brief spin-up tornadoes within the line
either. With convection becoming more linear, not expecting large
hail to be a primary threat at this time. Convection should be out
of our CWA by 07-08z tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Another round of potentially strong to severe storms are possible
overnight into early tomorrow morning. Current satellite and radar
imagery show quiet conditions over central KY and southern IN and
that should remain through the rest of the afternoon into the early
evening. While not ruling out an isolated storm, ACARs as well as
model sounding show a capping inversion in place over most of the
area which looks to hold until the arrival of the next wave of
showers and storms.
Quasi-stationary boundary extends from along the IN/MI border
through northern IL and back over northern MO into central OK. A
weak sfc low was centered over northeast IL just south of Chicago.
This will slowly work east along the mid-level jet and drag the
boundary towards the Ohio Valley as a cold front. Convective
clusters will begin to develop just ahead of the approaching
boundary across central IN and along the boundary into southern IL
towards southern and southeastern MO. This activity will continue
work into southern IN from the north and central KY from the west-
northwest. By the time it reaches our CWA, the activity should be in
the form of a broken QLCS oriented more west to east. Timing for
this activity appears to be from around 03-04z into southern IN and
northern KY, central KY between 05-06z and then across southern and
southeastern KY between 07-08z.
Instability will be weaker than earlier today due to the loss of
diurnal heating but 500-1000 J/kg CAPE will be enough to get
scattered strong to severe storms embedded in the line. Main threat
with this round will be damaging winds and large hail but there
should be enough deep-layer shear to support a brief spin-up
tornado. The SPC continues to have the northern and western part of
our CWA in a Slight Risk for severe storms.
The bulk of the storm activity should start to exit our area between
10-12z. Sfc cold front will be oriented along the Ohio River around
12z tomorrow and slowly work across Common Wealth from north to
south during the day. Colder air will filter in behind the front
with a few lingering showers, embedded rumbles of thunder and
pockets of drizzle. Temperatures will start off mild near 60 but as
the front moves across the state, temperatures will fall from the
north to the south. With temperatures in the mid/upper 50s north of
the parkways with 60s for most of the day to the south and into the
Lake Cumberland region.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Through the weekend and into much of next week, the upper levels
will feature a Rex Block pattern over the western CONUS, which will
result in persistent troughing across the eastern CONUS. Within the
large scale eastern CONUS troughing, we`ll see a couple of embedded
shortwave troughs and surface cold fronts slice into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. The most prominent one will arrive late Sunday
into Monday, bringing much colder conditions into the region and
perhaps some light rain/sprinkles in our northern/eastern zones.
Highs Monday afternoon will struggle to get into the mid/upper 40s,
and lows Tuesday morning will fall into the mid/upper 20s.
The Rex Block looks to break down by midweek and we should see a
gradual warming trend as upper flow shifts to quasi-zonal. A cut-off
low over the Desert Southwest may approach the region by
Thursday/Friday as an embedded shortwave trough and could bring
showers to the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
VFR conditions are observed at all terminals this evening, but the
main focus for the period continues to be the increasing potential
for strong to severe storms to sweep through the region. Timing for
these impactful storms will be between 03-08z tonight. For SDF, the
expected window for TS is from 03-06z.
After the line of TS pushes through, light rain and/or drizzle will
linger well into the morning hours. Ceilings will also lower to MVFR
and eventually IFR. Expect these restricted flight cats to prevail
through the end of the period, except for SDF, which for their 30-
hour period we could see ceilings begin to improve by 16/00z.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CJP
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...CJP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
402 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another warm day will give way to unsettled weather as a round
of thunderstorms are forecasted late today into tonight.
Conditions will be favorable for some storms to turn severe
with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. 4PM
to 1AM is when the risk will be the greatest. Localized flash
flooding is also possible with heavy downpours.
- Conditions will be breezy today with southerly winds. Winds
gusts between 25 to 35 mph are possible through the afternoon.
- Dry weather returns for the weekend before another cold front
arrives Sunday night that will cause lows to fall back below
freezing through Monday night. Temperatures quickly rebound by
the middle of the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Large scale ascent is increasing over MO/AR/OK as evidenced by
the large convective clusters forming there. More subtle
towering cumulus is evident along the I-44 corridor in
Missouri. 18z SGF sounding has about 2200 J/kg of MLCAPE
starting to approach the convective temperature even with a
residual inversion. ACARS soundings from flights in the region
show that cap is slowly eroding overhead as well, probably
collocated with the clouds clearing in the northwest on
satellite as that cumuloustratus was presumably trapped just
under the inversion. That cloud layer did limit our heating
today, but we will be pulling a south and southwest wind out of
west Tennessee where it is 81 degrees with mid 60s dewpoints.
Deep layer shear is quite strong, at 50-55 kts. Lower layer
shear is also relatively strong although not quite as top-end at
30kts in the 0-1km layer with SRH calculated around 200 m2/s2
on KPAHs VWP. Significant Tornado Parameter is about 1 to 2 to
our west and will probably be in that range for much of the
afternoon once warmer air moves in.
Long story short we will be watching the TCU in Missouri to
develop into more discrete cells. CAMs/WoFs really want to
develop a few longer tracked discrete cells from this activity
into our northwestern counties by 3-5 pm. If that were to happen
it would obviously carry an all-hazards threat of
tornado/wind/hail. The instability over southern MO and northern
Arkansas would also potentially allow for some development
ahead of the main MCS complex that could track into the area.
The main MCS would then track this direction by this evening.
That system would carry a continued severe weather risk mainly
in the form of wind and hail but QLCS tornado can`t be ruled out
given the available instability and shear. Wet bulb zero heights
are also quite low at 8000-9000 ft so hail will be possible with
any deep convection. The heaviest rain signal is to our south
but will need to keep at least one eye peeled to flood potential
although ground conditions are pretty dry.
Cold front works through by the morning leaving a cooler and
cloudy day. The only other real item of concern in the forecast
is a strong cold front on Sunday that will leave behind some
sub-freezing low temperatures on Sunday night and Monday night
before southwesterly flow builds back in and moderates
temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
MVFR-low VFR bases will lower/deteriorate this evening/overnight
as a cold front`s approach initiates a convective line of storms
with its passage. Further restrictions to IFR CIGS/VSBYS is
anticipated with the thunderstorms. After the front`s passage,
winds will shift to the west, then to the north, as bases
deteriote while some VCTS/VCSH lingers awhile. Time/height cross
sections suggest restricted CIGS will hold for the bulk of the
forecast.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$