Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/14/24

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

 747 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 746 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A subtle upper-level disturbance is propagating across the FL
peninsula this evening, with just enough forcing and moisture in the
mid-levels to support precip. Most is evaporating on the way down to
the surface, however, as this precip falls through a drier low-level
atmosphere shown in evening AMDAR and balloon sounding data. With
the sun now setting, what`s left of this energy isn`t enough to
sustain these sprinkles much longer. It should be a quiet night
overall - but with some extra clouds lingering through the night.

The main tweak to the forecast has been to adjust POPs and weather
elements to reflect isolated sprinkles for a couple hours around the
Tampa Bay Area. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A weak shortwave is currently siting in the Gulf of Mexico producing
some light showers across coastal areas of the Panhandle and Big
Bend area. A sprinkle or two can`t be ruled out over the Nature
coast this afternoon and evening but almost of all the area will
remain dry.

Ridging will remain over the Atlantic over Friday and through the
weekend. This will give us a quick preview of what we will get to
experience for the next 6 months. Which is warm and humid air. Most
daily high records for the next few days sit in the upper 80`s and
we will be either near or breaking them. Make sure to stay hydrated
and take breaks from the heat.

By Monday we will see our next front approaching the area. This will
increase cloud cover and give us the best chance of rain over the
next 7 days. However, models have shown a small decrease in coverage
and right now I have the highest PoPs sitting at 40 percent. Things
will look completely different by Tuesday behind the front as high
pressure to our north will help to transport cooler air across the
state with possible upper 40`s across the Nature Coast Tuesday
morning and highs topping out mainly in the low to mid 70`s across
the state.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 746 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

For the next hour or so, -RA is possible at KTPA, KPIE, and KLAL.
However, this is quickly fading and should have very limited
impacts. Precip is falling from mid-level clouds rather than low
clouds. No major impacts are likely through the remainder of the
period, or really the next few days. Main impact will be diurnal
wind shifts due to the sea breeze. Maybe an isolated storm too.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

High pressure across the Atlantic will give us some
pleasant boating conditions through the weekend. Winds should remain
at or below 10 knots each day. Winds will shift from an easterly
direction through the end of the week to a more southerly direction
for the weekend in response to a cold front that is expected to push
through on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

High pressure over the Atlantic will result in warm weather
across the state for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
Highs inland could be approaching the 90`s by Saturday and Sunday.
The only major fire weather concern will be low dispersion for our
Thursday thanks to lighter winds aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  84  69  86 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  67  87  67  87 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  64  86  66  87 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  63  83  67  86 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  56  86  62  89 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  68  82  71  82 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Shiveley