Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/03/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1019 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024
...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024
Mid-levels ended up drier than forecast, which slammed the door on
nearly all deep convection today. This is well depicted by the 00Z
TBW sounding, which actually rang in with a whopping 3,166 J/kg of
SBCAPE, but a PWAT of only 1.23" and a MidRH of 36 pct (this kills
the storm). A similar story is told by the MCO ACARS soundings,
though with a little more moisture in the mid-level, which is how
a few lightning storms have managed to develop across the interior
this evening, including one near Leesburg that produced small
hail.
As of 10 PM the sea breeze collision has produced a couple
lightning storms near Like Kissimmee, one of which has persisted
for a bit while riding boundaries to the northeast. Further north,
lightning storms have developed north of Leesburg again which the
HRRR and NBM have become enthusiastic over, so increased PoPs
across the north, but am ready to be burned again. This kind of
activity can be expected through the night, where a bit of
enhanced broad ascent or pockets of surface instability initiate
rounds of showers and lightning storms, especially as moisture in
the mid-levels continues to slowly increase from the stalled front
to the north drooping closer. Stronger storms capable of
occasional cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds 40 to 50 mph,
small hail, and heavy downpours remain possible, though the
chances are generally lower than earlier today.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1017 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024
Tonight...Isolated lightning storms remain possible over the local
Atlantic waters through the night, especially over the Gulf
Stream. South to southeasterly winds 5-10 kts back to easterly
around 5 kts near the Volusia coast. Seas 3-5 ft.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1017 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024
ISO SHRA/TSRA expected to continue through the night, but low
confidence in timing and location, so TAFs continue VCSH/VCTS
through 10Z and will issue short-fused TEMPOs as needed. CIGs
forecast to drop to IFR-LIFR at the northern terminals around 10Z,
and DAB may drop to MVFR as early as 06Z. CIGs recover to VFR
between 13Z and 15Z, then rain chances increase again in the
afternoon with the sea breeze collision around 23Z. However,
TEMPOs for TSRA impacts may be needed as early as 18Z if outflow
from the north develops storms prior to the sea breeze collision.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1017 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024
Tonight-Sunday...After activity along the sea breeze collision kicks
off, westerly steering flow will push activity back towards the
coast late tonight, with scattered showers and isolated storms
possible through the overnight hours. Based on hi-res guidance,
activity will likely begin to diminish slightly towards daybreak
across east central Florida, which will lead to a short break
between rainfall and storms on Sunday morning. A weak disturbance in
the Gulf of Mexico will move across the peninsula on Sunday, with
moisture remaining elevated locally (PWATs 1.3-1.5"). Coupled with
the development of the east coast sea breeze that will move inland,
model guidance continues to indicate yet another afternoon and
evening of scattered showers and isolated storms. Similar to today,
any storms that are able to develop with this activity on Sunday may
be capable of producing occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds 40
to 50 mph, small hail, and brief heavy downpours. Activity is
forecast to diminish across the area Sunday night as the weak
surface disturbance moves offshore and drags a weak boundary across
the peninsula.
Cloud coverage will remain high tonight through Sunday, which will
keep temperatures similar to the last several days, with overnight
lows in the low to mid 60s and afternoon highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s.
Monday-Tuesday...A diffuse surface boundary remains draped near to
just north of east central Florida early next week. Meanwhile,
shortwave pulses traverse the area aloft. These pulses will be
enough to help generate daily showers and isolated lightning storms,
mainly during the afternoons. Ample moisture, with PWATs 1.3-1.6",
will work to create scattered showers and storms, with the highest
coverage across the interior. MUCAPE 800-1400J/kg is forecast,
though drier air aloft will be a limiting factor to updraft growth,
especially on Monday. Colder temperatures aloft will maintain a
small hail threat, though they will be warming through the period,
with -14/15C forecast Monday and -10/11C on Tuesday. A few storms
could become strong, with gusty winds and locally heavy downpours.
Easterly winds 5-10mph Monday veer southeasterly on Tuesday and
increase to up to 10-15mph. Temperatures will warm through the
period, with upper 70s to lower 80s Monday becoming the lower to mid-
80s Tuesday. Expect temperatures along the coast to be 5+ degrees
cooler, especially along the Volusia Coast, as Atlantic water
temperatures remain cool.
Wednesday-Saturday...The aforementioned boundary dissipates into mid-
week. Models have come into better agreement that a low pressure
system will develop along a cold front draped over the Southeast mid
to late week. This feature will then lift northeastward, moving off
of the Northeast or Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night. The cold
front attached to this system will approach the local area through
the period. It will be weakening as it nears the area, bringing
additional showers and storms. Then, lifts back northward into next
weekend as a warm front.
Wednesday looks to be a wet day, with the frontal passage bringing
PoPs up to 60-70% and a chance for some lightning storms. Given the
expected weakening trend, organized severe storms are not forecast
at this time. A few showers will linger on Thursday. Then,
developing high pressure over the western Atlantic will help lift
the previous front northward as a warm front, increasing
temperatures and slightly increasing moisture. However, the end of
the work week looks to be dry, before yet another cold front
approaches the area Saturday.
A warming trend is forecast through the period, with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday warming into the mid to upper
80s by Saturday, as winds veer southwesterly. Should these
temperatures hold, they would be up to around 10 degrees above
normal for early March. Overnight lows will also be increasing, with
lower to mid-60s Wednesday night becoming mid to upper 60s by
Saturday morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 62 76 61 75 / 60 50 10 10
MCO 65 81 64 81 / 50 60 10 30
MLB 65 78 63 77 / 50 50 20 30
VRB 64 80 63 80 / 50 50 20 30
LEE 63 79 62 80 / 60 60 10 20
SFB 64 80 63 80 / 60 50 10 20
ORL 65 80 64 81 / 60 60 10 20
FPR 64 80 63 80 / 50 50 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Tollefsen/Haley
LONG TERM....Sedlock