Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/20/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
642 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2024
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2024
As the low that caused such a gloomy and rainy weekend has now
propagated east, skies have cleared and temperatures have begun to
cool. This favors some frost across portions of the Nature Coast
tonight. Based on the latest trends, have tweaked this slightly.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2024
Departing low pressure in the western Atlantic and surface high
pressure in the lower MS Valley has brought a much drier air mass
into the region and a return of sunshine after the soggy weather
that was experienced this past weekend. Northerly flow will
primarily remain in place through midweek as high pressure
continues to build across the FL peninsula, which will keep
temperatures below climatological normal values over the coming
days despite near full sunshine expected. The clear skies and
northerly flow will also yield chilly overnight lows with
tonight`s readings being the coldest of the week as lows fall into
the 30s across the Nature Coast and mostly low/mid 40s elsewhere,
though immediate coastal areas will be around 50. In addition,
with conditions looking somewhat favorable for frost across the
northern portions of the area with light winds, clear skies, and
low T/Td spreads, a Frost Advisory has been issued for inland Levy
County overnight into Tuesday morning, though can`t completely
rule out some patchy areas in other nearby locations on exposed
surfaces.
Temperatures start to recover by late week as winds veer to the
southwest ahead of a cold front that is expected to move through
the area on Friday night so there will be an opportunity for highs
to return to near normal values by Friday with much of the area
reaching the mid 70s ahead of the frontal passage. There will also
be a narrow corridor of moisture along and ahead of the frontal
boundary as models show PWATs peaking around 1.3-1.4 inches, which
will support at least some scattered showers across the area but
will keep thunder mention out of the forecast for now as
instability is looking unimpressive at this time. Models suggest
that QPF amounts are projected to be light with around 0.10-0.25
inches across the Nature Coast, a tenth or so around the Tampa Bay
Area, and perhaps only a few hundredths of an inch across SWFL as
overall moisture advection and upper support will be limited. In
the wake of the frontal passage, drier and slightly cooler
conditions will be in place for the weekend but overall it will be
pleasant with plenty of sunshine and comfortable humidity levels.
A warming trend is then expected by the new week as high pressure
quickly drifts off to the east and return flow brings highs right
around normal values by the end of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2024
No major aviation concerns through mid-week. However, aircraft
parked outside overnight around and north KINF and KCGC could see
some patchy frost first thing tomorrow morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2024
Marine conditions will continue to improve through tonight as northerly
winds and seas continue to weaken into midweek as high pressure
builds across the region. Winds switch to the southwest late week
ahead of a cold front and will gradually strengthen ahead of this
feature, possibly approaching advisory levels by Friday. A band of
scattered showers will accompany the frontal boundary as it moves
through the Gulf waters on Friday and models show the cold front
moving through the area by Friday night. In the wake of the
frontal passage, winds become northerly once again for the weekend
with elevated seas gradually diminishing as high pressure builds
into the area.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2024
Critical RH values could be reached through this evening across
portions of the Nature Coast and possibly for a large portion of
west central and southwest Florida through midweek, especially
inland areas away from the coast. Winds will remain out of the
north over the next several days but wind speeds are expected to
remain below critical levels so Red Flag conditions are not
expected to be met at this time. Improving fire weather conditions
are then expected later this week as winds become southwesterly
ahead of a cold front, bringing deeper moisture and higher
humidity into the area. Scattered showers are also expected on
Friday as the cold front moves through, though rainfall activity
is expected to be light.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 47 67 48 68 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 48 70 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 44 68 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 47 68 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 39 68 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 51 64 52 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for Inland Levy.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Giarratana