Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/12/24

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

 549 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A storm system will bypass the region well to the south Monday
  night with dry conditions persisting into midweek.

- Snow and rain chances increase later in the week with near
  average late winter temperature conditions evolving into next
  weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

Diurnal heating eroded the low cloud deck across metro Detroit this
afternoon. There is still a region of MVFR stratus extending from SW
Lower Mi across the Flint and Tri Cities region. Recent ACARS
soundings over srn Lower Mi still show a fairly deep low level
inversion. There are indications in recent RAP soundings that some
expansion of these clouds will occur post sunset, which under the
westerly flow should be ducted inland back across the remainder of
Se Mi. The stratus is then likely to hold through late tonight
before a little push of drier air arrives from the northwest, likely
supporting a clearing trend Mon morning.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024

DISCUSSION...

Strong southern stream shortwave emerging over west Texas today will
take a shallow track trajectory into the eastern CONUS early in the
week as it encounters strongly confluent upper level flow between
mean upper troughing over eastern Canada in the northern stream and
the southwesterly subtropical plume arcing over strong upper ridging
over the Caribbean region. This track will keep precipitation well
south of the region as this system makes its closest approach Monday
night.

A northern stream shortwave digging quickly through the region in
behind this southern system may bring a few lake effect flurries
Tuesday, but the main phasing of these streams will hold off until
the storm center reaches the east coast. Canadian high pressure will
build into the area through the middle of the week with a transitory
shortwave upper ridge also translating east-southeast through the
area Wednesday. This will maintain quite conditions as temperatures
settle back from the lower 40s Monday to mid/upper 30s Tuesday into
Wednesday as the southern fringe of a polar airmass seeps into the
Great Lakes.

The next series of northern stream shortwaves sweep back into the
area from Thursday on into next weekend. Medium range models vary
considerably on the configuration of these shortwaves and this leads
to considerable uncertainty in determining their impact on regional
weather later this week. In general, expect increase snow (and rain)
shower chances as the first of these waves sweep through the region
Thursday with continued unsettled weather conditions then persisting
into next weekend.

While it is too early to discern if any of these waves (and any
southern stream counterparts) will evolve into a more significant
winter storm system, it does appear likely that temperatures
conditions, as a whole, will trend back into a more typical late
winter scenario as each passing wave allows for some additional
penetration of polar/arctic air south into the Great Lakes from
Canada with lower 30s common by next weekend for high temperatures.

MARINE...

Weak high pressure continues to expand into the Great Lakes through
the rest of the day today. Gentle westerly winds remain in place,
with some parts of northern Lake Huron seeing gusts up above 15
knots through tonight. Weak clipper moves in tonight, producing some
snow showers overnight, but will quickly move out of the area.
Shortwave brings a low pressure system through to the southeast of
the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Although confidence is reasonable that
the center of the low and the associated precipitation will miss the
DTX CWA, it is possible that a slight northern shift will result in
some precipitation in the southernmost marine zones. A second system
moving in Thursday into Friday will provide better chances for
precipitation, accompanied by elevated northwesterly winds and
waves.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...DG
MARINE.......BC


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