Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 01/20/24

===Extended Forecast Discussion===



 Moving into the final week of January, the forecast teleconnection
pattern looks to feature a +AO/+NAO/+EPO/+PNA pattern.  The MJO is
forecast to take an orbit through phases 4/5/6 before going into the
neutral circle on the RMM plots.  Taken together, this will result
in a milder than normal pattern for the eastern US.  Signal analysis
from early January points to a signal crossing in the 1/27-29 time
frame with maybe a rain to snow scenario here.  A second weaker
signal may cross in the 1/30-1/31 time frame.  A stronger signal
crossing looks likely in the 2/3 to 2/5 time frame which will have
to be watched closely.  After about 2/7-2/9, it appears the MJO may
re-emerge in the phase 7/8/1 area and a return to colder conditions
may develop.  However, there are some things that suggest that
return of a colder pattern could end up holding off until around
Valentine`s Day.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2024

Impacts/Confidence:
- Medium Confidence in MVFR ceilings tonight/tomorrow
- Low-Medium Confidence in flurries/light snow at LEX later tonight
- High Confidence in NW winds gradually relaxing tonight into
tomorrow

Discussion...At this hour, there is a messy-looking stratus field
across the region which is bringing borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings to
SDF, BWG, and LEX, while HNB has had more clearing so far this
evening. Later tonight, it is expected that clouds will try to build
in along the western flank of the current stratus deck as a mid-
level disturbance approaches the region from the NW. However,
upstream observations have not been as widespread with cloud cover
as models are anticipating, so have trended more optimistically with
CIGs tonight, especially at HNB and BWG. Would not be surprised to
see all forecast sites vary several times between VFR/MVFR CIGs
overnight tonight, and overall confidence in categories is medium.
Winds will gradually become less gusty overnight tonight, though a
steady 8-12 kt NW wind is expected to continue through Saturday
morning. As the disturbance approaches from the NW, it may be able
to interact with enough low-level moisture to produce a few light
snow showers, especially at LEX.

During the daytime hours on Saturday, would expect a broken MVFR
stratus deck atop the boundary layer gradually dissipating in the
afternoon and evening hours. Recent model trends have been more
optimistic, though past experience suggests that it will be
difficult to mix out the low-level moisture.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday for
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Sunday for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&

$$

Update...CSG
Short Term...ALL
Long Term...MJ
Aviation...CSG