Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 01/14/24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
208 PM MST Sat Jan 13 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Arctic air mass remains firmly in place over the region. Last
nights overnight lows matched firmly with NBM10. Once again
temperature recovery despite the clear skies was minimal so will
go ahead and use NBM10 for tonight`s overnight lows as well as
tomorrow`s highs. The center of the Arctic High will slowly
progress southeastward so should start seeing some slow moderation
in temperatures starting on Sunday night, but it still looks like
Tuesday before we break above zero for afternoon highs. Needless
to say have seen no need to get rid of our Wind Chill Warning
which is set to expire on 18Z (11am) Monday, will let future
shifts determine if this product needs to be expanded.
Next shot at snow could be as early as Tuesday afternoon and last
into Thursday evening. Scenario is a shortwave riding down the
northwest flow aloft potentially merging with a Pacific Storm
system moving onshore. Timing and precipitation amounts are still
low confidence as the event is still a ways out. At this time the
heavier snow amounts look to favor our western and southwestern
zones and could be within Advisory criteria. Will keep watching
to see how this plays out.
-Bernhart
&&
.AVIATION...
UPDATED: 2100Z
CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: Dry conditions expected with only a few clouds
expected.
EXTREME COLD: Temperatures through Sunday night are expected to
be between -10 and -40. This will likely lead to problems for
airport and aircraft equipment, as well as be hazardous to any
ground personnel working outside.
WIND: NW 10-15kts this afternoon, light and variable overnight,
NW 10kts Sunday afternoon
-Bernhart
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM MST Monday for Central and
Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Daniels...
Dawson...Eastern Roosevelt...Garfield...McCone...Northern
Phillips...Northern Valley...Petroleum...Prairie...Richland...
Sheridan...Southwest Phillips...Western Roosevelt...Wibaux.
&&
$$
weather.gov/glasgow
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
809 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024
The surface cold front is currently over the Florida Keys early
this evening with the 850mb frontal boundary over the southern
portion of South Florida where MIA radar is showing a few showers
developing. The surface front should start to move slowly back
northward tonight as a warm front and move into the southern
portion of South Florida Sunday morning joining up with the 850
frontal boundary.
This will allow for the surface winds to become more northeast
overnight allowing for low level moisture to work int the region
from the Atlantic waters. Therefore, the showers should continue
to increase over the southern areas of South Florida through the
overnight hours tonight.
The frontal boundary will then move slowly northward on Sunday and
should be over the northern areas of South Florida by Sunday
afternoon. This will keep the low level winds east to northeast
over the region and allow for the continuation of low level
moisture to work into South Florida from the Atlantic waters.
At the same time, a mid to upper level short wave will be working
into South Florida from the Gulf of Mexico allowing for the mid
levels of the atmosphere to become unstable. This will allow for
a few thunderstorms to develop over South Florida Sunday
especially over the northern portions in the afternoon hours.
Therefore, POPs will remain in the scattered to numerous range on
Sunday with the highest POPs over the northern areas. There could
even be some heavy rainfall on Sunday due to possible training of
showers and thunderstorms. Will update the HWO to mention this.
Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1207 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024
An occluded deep-layer cyclone over the Great Lakes region of the
United States continues to drag an attendant weak cold front across
South Florida today. Mesoanalysis indicates a very sharp dewpoint
and temperature gradient along the leading edge of the boundary with
a relatively marginal amount of instability (MLCAPE roughly 1000-
1500 J/kg). While wind shear profiles (MFL 12Z Upper Air Sounding
and ACARS data) indicate the presence of a moderately sheared
environment, unidirectional speed shear orientation remains parallel
to the convective band as it continues it`s southerly motion. In
addition, shear profiles will continue to weaken as the best
synoptic forcing for ascent and lift remains well to the north of
our area behind the boundary across northern Florida and the
southeastern United States. Thus, the few thunderstorms that are
able to form along the boundary will not be able to pose a
strong/severe threat outside of conventional thunderstorm hazards
such as lightning and heavy rainfall.
A brief period of gusty winds and a notable temperature drop will be
realized across the region as the boundary sweeps through from
northwest to southeast. Southwesterly flow out ahead of the boundary
will result in continued warm air advection with locations reaching
their maximum temperature for the date before the boundary and
associated cloud cover reach the region. Based on real-time trends
this morning, went above NBM guidance for afternoon highs across
coastal and metro Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach County with
forecasted highs expected in the low-mid 80s. These forecasted
values could come close to record high temperature values for today.
Behind the front, northwesterly winds will bring a temperature and
humidity drop with cloudy skies prevailing behind the boundary.
With the occluded cyclone over the Great Lakes and the accompanying
synoptic forcing well removed from the aforementioned meager frontal
boundary, the boundary will stall across South Florida late today
into tonight. Copious amounts of low-level moisture will pool along
the boundary which will enhance cloudy skies and the potential of
scattered shower activity on Sunday across South Florida. If enough
instability is able to materialize (widespread cloud cover could act
to limit instability), the potential for a few thunderstorms is
possible as well. The lack of insolation and widespread shower
activity will result in high temperatures on Sunday reaching the mid
60s to low 70s across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 235 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024
The frontal boundary will begin to drift northward as the week
begins. As the front retreats, a warm and moist airmass will
return over the area with temperatures warming 5 to 10 degrees
compared to Sunday. Rain chances will focus north on Monday but
will return areawide by Tuesday ahead of the next front. Drier,
much cooler air will enter the region in the wake of the cold
front late Wednesday into Thursday. The exact forecast still has
some uncertainty this far out in time but temperatures in the wake
of this cold front, with lows in the 40s and 50s possible, will
remind us that we are still in January come late week. Some
moderation of the airmass is possible if the stalled boundary
south of the area retreats slightly to the north on Friday to
allow some brief warming and moisture to return but that may be
short-lived.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024
Winds will be northwest around 5 to 10 knots this evening before
swinging to a northeast direction late tonight into Sunday
morning. The ceilings will be mainly in the VFR conditions this
evening but should fall into MVFR conditions after midnight and
could even fall into IFR at times. Will keep VCSH in the forecast
for late tonight into Sunday with even a PROB30 group for parts of
Sunday for rain and low vis.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024
Winds will remain gusty this afternoon as hazardous seas continue
across the Atlantic waters. Conditions will gradually improve by
this evening as the frontal boundary stalls across the region. Seas
generally 2 to 4 feet through the weekend. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms will be possible each day over the weekend across
the local waters. Locally elevated winds and waves will be possible
in and around shower and thunderstorm activity.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1207 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024
An elevated risk of rip currents will persist along the Gulf and
Atlantic beaches today. The risk on the Atlantic beaches of South
Florida may increase tomorrow into early next week, especially for
the Palm Beach county beaches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 64 72 68 78 / 30 50 10 20
West Kendall 63 72 66 79 / 30 40 10 20
Opa-Locka 63 72 67 79 / 30 50 10 30
Homestead 64 74 68 80 / 20 30 10 20
Fort Lauderdale 63 72 68 78 / 40 50 20 30
N Ft Lauderdale 62 72 67 79 / 50 60 20 30
Pembroke Pines 62 72 67 79 / 40 50 10 30
West Palm Beach 60 70 64 78 / 40 60 20 40
Boca Raton 62 72 67 79 / 50 60 20 40
Naples 55 67 61 77 / 30 60 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...BNB