Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 11/15/23

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Indianapolis IN

 842 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023

.Key Messages...

- Dry and above normal conditions will continue through Thursday.

- Elevated fire weather danger through the rest of today and again
tomorrow.

- Rain chances return late Thursday night into Friday, amounts
appear light.

- Cooler over the weekend into next week, with rain chances again
early in the work week.

&&

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 842 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023

We adjusted the hourly temperatures slightly based on observational
trends. But, overall the day shift forecast is in good shape. Some
cirrus from the northern edge of southern stream system will be most
prevalent across southern portions of our area. Otherwise, good
radiative conditions should allow temperatures to the 25th and
perhaps 10th percentile, which is most heavily influenced by hi-res
models that handle shallow inversions best.

&&

.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023

Rest of Today.

Focus for the rest of the day will be on elevated fire weather
conditions.  As of early this afternoon, RH values were generally
between 20 and 25 percent across central Indiana with mixing up to
the top of the boundary layer ongoing. ACARs soundings show that the
air at the top of the boundary layer that is getting mixed down has
near 0 RH which is further contributing to the fire weather danger
when combined with the already dry surface conditions. Dewpoints
will continue to fall for the next couple of hours before
stabilizing as peak heating ends and the boundary layer decouples.

Tonight.

High clouds will continue to gradually stream into south central
Indiana during the overnight hours as clouds associated with the
showers and storms across the Gulf states advects into the area.
Expect similar conditions to last night where the near calm winds
and very dry air will allow for a rapid drop in temperatures with
valleys running 5-10 degrees cooler than any surrounding areas.

Wednesday.

Another day of much above normal conditions and elevated fire
weather conditions is expected for tomorrow with little difference
in the synoptic pattern. The upper level wind pattern will begin to
become more northwesterly which will bring an end to the advection
of high clouds into the southern counties by the morning hours.
Temperatures will have no issue rising back into the mid to upper
60s but the dry air at the top of the boundary layer won`t be as
pronounced which combined with the surface flow becoming more
southerly will keep min RH values closer to 30 percent.

&&

.Long Term...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023

Continued dry weather and warm days/cool nights expected early in
the long term. Rain chances return late Thursday night into Friday,
and again early next work week. Uncertainty is high early next week
as model spread is significant.

Guidance continues to depict a cold front sweeping through the area
quickly late Thursday night into Friday, bringing shower chances
back to the area. However, given a lack of significant moisture
return owing to a largely closed Gulf, and antecedent dry
conditions, moisture will be a concern, and coupled with the speed
of the system, should lead to only light rain amounts - not enough
to lend real improvement to the ongoing abnormally dry/drought
conditions across much of the area.

Temperatures will cool by as much as about 10-15 degrees after
frontal passage, with highs largely in the upper 40s to mid 50s and
lows in the mid 20s to 30s through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Rain chances look to return toward day 7/8, early next work week,
but model suite differences are quite broad, and lead to higher than
normal uncertainty. Until guidance begins to converge on a coherent
solution, see little reason to alter a blend approach.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 550 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2023

Impacts:

* None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected. Some cirrus may be observed. Winds will
be light and southeasterly, but after sunrise start to veer to
southwesterly.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Update...BRB
Short Term...White
Long Term...Nield
Aviation...BRB