Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 10/28/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
853 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023
The previous forecast appears to be on track. Patchy fog will be
possible overnight, particularly across portions of GA.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023
Deep layer ridging will remain in control of the weather pattern
through Saturday. A stout inversion around 6000 feet per RAP/HRRR
soundings and a nearby AMDAR sounding continues through the area and
with cloud bases at the general height. Easterly flow underneath the
inversion will promote continued moisture advection and afternoon
and early evening cloud cover with a general decreasing in clouds
overnight tonight. East winds will slacken off overnight which may
also promote patchy fog through portions of southwest Georgia and
adjacent Big Bend areas towards dawn. Overall, a pleasant weather
day is in store Saturday with highs in the mid 80s after morning
lows around 60 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023
Not a whole lot of change is expected through the weekend. In other
words, highs in the middle to upper 80s and overnight lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both nights. This is due to an H5 ridge and
surface high pressure over the region, which also means a
continuation of dry weather through the final weekend of October.
It`s worth noting that both entities will be in the beginning stages
of getting squeezed out of the area by an incoming trough of low
pressure. But that`s not forecast to occur until next work week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023
As mentioned in the Short Term, the H5 ridge will be in the process
of getting squeezed out of the region by an upper-level low moving
into the Bahamas and a large-scale trough diving into the middle of
the country. As this occurs, a strong cold front is expected to move
into the southeast during the day Tuesday. No rain is expected as
the cold front pushes through thanks to the lack of moisture ahead
of the front and the better jet dynamics located well north of our
area. Moderate to strong northerly winds are forecast to develop
behind the front later Tuesday into Wednesday, ushering in a cooler
air mass for the first couple days of November.
A 1030+mb high settling across the Carolinas to start November will
allow daytime highs to drop from the middle to upper 80s ahead of
the cold front on Monday to the upper 50s to upper 60s on Wednesday.
Tuesday will be the transition day with highs highly dependent on
the timing of the cold front and could range from the lower 70s in
SE Alabama to the middle 80s in the FL Big Bend. Overnight
temperatures are forecast to drop from the middle to upper 50s
Tuesday morning to the 40s to lower 50s Wednesday morning. The
coldest nights are expected to be Wednesday and Thursday nights with
the biggest question being just how cool both those nights could
get. The NBM did drop temperatures compared to the previous run and
is now closer to the NBM50 than before. However, the NBMExperimental
is 5 to 8 degrees warmer than the NBM. This is important because
there is a low chance, less than 20 percent, that a few of our
northern Georgia Counties from a Fort Gaines to Bluffton to Dawson
line could experience freezing temperatures Wednesday Night into
Thursday morning. This trend will be something we monitor in the
coming days. Either way, colder than normal temperatures are
expected as we turn the calendar to November.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023
A bit of MVFR fog will be possible across GA in the early morning
hours through a little after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through the period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023
High pressure over the Carolinas slowly weakens the next couple of
days, allowing the easterly breeze to decrease a smidgen each day
through at Monday. A cold front is then forecast to move through
during the day Tuesday. Advisory level northerly winds are possible
as soon as Tuesday night following the cold front and could last
through at least Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023
High pressure will remain in control with fairly persistent
conditions ongoing through Monday. The next cold front is on tap for
late Monday into Tuesday. Not expecting much in the way of rainfall
as it passes through, but do expect cooler and drier air to filter
in for mid to late next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2023
There are currently no flooding concerns expected for the next seven
days.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 62 84 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 63 83 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 60 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 59 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 61 83 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 62 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 67 78 67 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Reese