Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 09/15/23

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 809 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

Showers and storms have been efficient rain producers, with some
areas seeing from 1 to 2 inches of rain, this aftn into the early
evening hours.

Meanwhile, a weak upper level trough will move slowly across the
area overnight. This feature will allow for a continuation of rain
and a few tstms.

By 12Z Fri, appears the most steady area of rainfall will be
centered mainly along and south of I-70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

While it`s been mostly cloudy over the higher terrain, the
cloudiness hasn`t progressed onto the Urban Corridor or eastern
plains. This has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower to
mid 70s. ACARS soundings estimates surface based CAPE of 600-900
J/kg at DEN. Water vapor satellite imagery showing a broad trough
over Wyoming and Utah with a good circulation over southwest
Wyoming. Best lift appears to be over northwest Colorado and south
central/southeast Wyoming. As through progress east-southeast,
lift will shift over the Urban Corridor and eastern plains. Expect
widespread showers and thunderstorms to form late this afternoon
and continue through this evening. Showers/storms will transition
to a widespread steady rain overnight as the airmass stabilizes.

For Friday, the upper level trough will be over Colorado, but
will be slowly weakening. Best lift appears to be along and south
of I- 70. At the same time, drier air will be moving in from the
north. Best chance for rain showers will be during the morning
hours. Rain then shifts south and east of the area. Expect some
clearing to move in from the north during the afternoon. Will have
the warmest temperatures in this area where highs will be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

The upper trough will move east the state Friday night with mostly
dry conditions expected across the forecast area. There could be
some lingering showers and storms during the evening hours mainly
south of I-70. Upper level high pressure building over the Rocky
Mountain Region will bring dry and warmer weather to the forecast
area over the weekend with temperatures on the plains warming back
into the low to mid 80s on Sunday. Early next week, the upper ridge
flattens with a weak westerly flow aloft over Colorado. This pattern
should bring continued dry and warm weather to the region with the
exception of a few light showers possible over the higher mountains.

On Wednesday, models are showing an upper level trough of low
pressure deepening over the Northern Rockies. Some lift ahead of the
trough could lead to an increase in shower activity over the high
country with mostly dry conditions continuing across the plains.

Cooler unsettled weather is expected on Thursday as the large upper
trough moves across the Northern and Central Rockies. At this time,
there is quite a bit of uncertainty with the forecast due to run to
run inconsistencies and model discrepancies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 539 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

Showers and storms will continue thru 02z but then should
transition to a more steady rain thereafter and linger thru
09z.  Should see a gradual lowering of ceilings by 04z down
to 1200 ft. Visibility in rain should be in the 3-5 mile range.
Gusty NNW winds should decrease by 02z.  Winds overnight will
be NNW around 10 mph. On Fri, IFR ceilings will linger in the
morning but should become MVFR by 19z.  Winds will become light
northeast by 18z.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2023

Nearly persistent cloud cover so far today across the burn areas
has limited the heating and instability. The threat for very heavy
rain from the thunderstorms has decreased. However, still expect
widespread rain showers with scattered thunderstorms through early
evening. Even though heavy rain chances and number of storms have
lowered, brief heavy rain will accompany the storms with up to an
inch in 30 minutes possible. There will also be a slight chance
for minor flooding issues across the Urban Corridor where the
stronger storms develop. Here an inch may fall in 20-30 minutes.
Storms will be moving east/southeast and long duration heavy rain
is not expected.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...jk
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...Meier