Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 09/07/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1020 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
After a sustained stretch of hot and rain free weather,
conditions will trend cooler over time, with an increased
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. A slow moving cold
front will provide the impetus for an initial, fairly widespread
round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and
evening. Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected
on Friday and Saturday, as the previously mentioned frontal
system only very slowly makes its way through the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1015 PM Update
Skies are remaining mainly clear over our CWA this evening,
which is allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 60s to
mid-70s...with a few locations still in the upper 70s as of
10PM. With clear skies it is likely that patchy fog will begin
forming by midnight and become a bit more expansive overnight
into early Thursday morning. A large thunderstorm with plenty of
lightning has developed over lake Ontario, but any convection
is staying away from our forecast area at this time. There could
be an isolated shower or t`storm during the late overnight
hours out in the northwestern Finger Lakes, otherwise it will be
dry else where into Thursday morning. Touched up forecast highs
Thursday, and also adjusted hourly temperatures and dew points
with this update. Overall, the near term forecast remains on
track with no significant changes for this update.
708 PM Update
Allowed the current heat advisory to expire on time at 7pm EST,
as temperatures and heat indices are finally starting to come
down as we approach sunset. Otherwise, it will be humid, muggy
and warm tonight with lows only briefly dipping down into the
mid-60s to lower 70s around daybreak. Skies are mainly clear
this evening, with some convection and associated convective
debris, mid/higher clouds out across far western NY/PA and
especially over the Ohio Valley. NBM wants to keep most of our
forecast area mainly clear overnight. If these clear skies
persist there will be a good chance for areas of fog to develop
as temperatures fall toward the elevated dew points, which are
in the upper 60s to around 70F.
Thursday will be another hot and humid day. Already have another
round of heat advisories in effect for Lackawanna and Luzerne
counties (12-7 PM Thursday) but will need to reevaluate with the
new 00z data tonight to see if any additional zones may reach
heat advisory criteria. Right now, confidence wasn`t quite there
to include any other zones in the advisory, with cloud cover
and t`storms potentially keeping temperatures and apparent
temperatures a few degrees lower than what was observed today.
The other main story on Thursday will be scattered to numerous
thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and evening hours
as a shortwave and mid/upper level trough slowly approaches. The
surface cold front looks to make it into our CWA late Thursday
into Thursday night before stalling out into Friday. Expect
plenty of atmospheric instability Thursday afternoon, due in
part to the very hot and humid conditions that are forecast.
MLCAPE could reach 1500-2250+ J/kg...and there will be modest
deep layer shear around 15-30 kts in the 0-6km layer. Forecast
soundings show DCAPE values of 600-800 J/kg which could be
enough for a few of the more developed storms to produce
isolated damaging wind and perhaps large hail. SPC now has much
of our forecast area under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for
scattered severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon & evening.
There will also be a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and
isolated flash flooding with these storms...especially by the
evening hours...pwats are forecast to be between 1.6 to
1.9...so quite high and well above climo. This will contribute
to the locally heavy rainfall potential.
120 pm update... Afternoon satellite imagery is showing a flat,
diurnal cumulus field with the heating of the day. Vertical
cloud development is being limited by a mid-level cap in place,
as sampled by KSYR, KALY, and KMDT aircraft soundings. As
advertised, high temperatures will peak in the mid 80s-lower 90s
range, with apparent temperatures pushing 100 in the metro
valleys of Elmira/Corning, Syracuse, Binghamton, and
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Overnight, as heights aloft begin to fall from west to east, and
a slow moving cold front trudges eastward from the OH Valley and
the Upper Midwest, some isolated convection is possible over the
Finger Lakes region, our Lake Ontario plain counties, and the
southern Tug Hill region. Other parts of CNY, as well as all of
NEPA, should stay rain free.
Lows by daybreak will range from 65-70 for most locales.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
130 pm update... The main theme for this period will be
gradually cooling daytime highs over time, along with the
likelihood of diurnally favored convection.
A slow moving surface cold front will progress into western NY
Thursday afternoon. The proximity of the front, combined with
continued height falls from the west, should add enough
moisture, convergence, and instability to the equation for
increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Overall, the
environment looks weakly sheared, so storms look to be of the
pulse variety, with any severe threat isolated in nature and
relegated to downburst winds.
Highs on Thursday afternoon will still be hot down in the
Wyoming and Lackawanna Valleys, where another Heat Advisory has
been issued. Farther to the north and west through CNY, more
clouds and convective activity should limit apparent
temperatures below Advisory criteria.
Friday and Saturday, with the upper-level steering flow nearly
paralleling the surface frontal orientation, its progress will
be painfully slow through CNY and NEPA. This will lead to a
fairly high probability of diurnally favored showers and storms
both Friday and Saturday. The atmospheric ingredients look
pretty similar to what is expected on Thursday (weak shear and
high moisture content), so although localized downpours are
quite likely, the threat of damaging winds and hail are
relatively low.
By Saturday, we`re expecting daytime highs to trend downward
into the 70s-lower 80s range.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern continues into Sunday associated
with the trough axis over the region. Scattered showers are
possible in the morning hours of Sunday, with chances of
increasing into the evening hours. Some thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out, with the highest chance across portions of the
eastern Catskills. Areas that receive repeat rounds of showers
and thunderstorms will have a concern for localized flooding
given PWAT values near 1.5".
High pressure tries to build back into the region for early
next week, keeping shower coverage more isolated in nature
outside of some lingering showers Monday morning. Temperatures
will continue to follow a general cooling trend throughout the
extended period.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions continue this evening at all terminals. Skies are
expected to be mostly clear tonight with light and variable
winds. As a result radiational fog could settle in at ELM/BGM
early tomorrow morning leading to some possible IFR restrictions.
Although clouds may begin to fill in from the west early
tomorrow morning which could also prevent ELM from fogging in.
This really depends on the timing and arrival of these clouds.
RME may also see some fog but confidence on this is lower with
only MVFR restrictions. Otherwise the remaining terminals are
expected to remain VFR overnight.
More restrictions are possible tomorrow afternoon as rain
showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through the
area. Confidence is low on the exact timing and coverage of
these storms, but it is possible to see at least some MVFR
restrictions with this system. Southerly flow under 10 knots
returns tomorrow.
Outlook...
Thursday through Monday...Occasional restrictions possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly each afternoon.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ044-047.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/MJM
NEAR TERM...JAB/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG/CTP
AVIATION...ES
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
756 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023
.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023
Another tranquil night across the area. There was some
lingering smoke over far nern CO. Smoke, from fires over
swrn CO, should stay mostly to the south based on winds aloft.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023
Water vapor imagery shows very dry air within a ridge that is
over Colorado. This, along with an inversion showing up around 550
mb on the ACARS soundings, is keeping things dry with skies clear
today. The only thing of note with the weather today was the
smoky conditions. With southwesterly flow aloft bringing in
"cleaner" air, the smoke should become thinner and will clear
tonight and tomorrow.
The strong ridge over New Mexico will continue to dominate our
weather on Thursday. Moderate westerly flow aloft will be over our
forecast area with subsident flow. This will lead to warm and dry
conditions. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the
plains as Denver will likely add to its 90 degree day total. The
only minor weather concern will be elevated fire weather
conditions. Relative humidity will drop to the teens across the
plains, foothills, and mountains valleys. Moderate winds with
gusts between 20-25 mph will allow for some pockets of elevated
fire weather conditions.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023
Late summer warmth will be replaced by cooler and showery
weather by early next week.
A flat upper level ridge will dominate the Southern and Central
Rockies and High Plains weather through Saturday. Temperatures
will remain well above normal, with highs pushing near 90F across
the I-25 Corridor and northeast Colorado plains. The airmass will
remain dry, and breezy conditions in the afternoon will keep fire
danger on the elevated side but below critical levels. There is
enough heating to get close to breaking the weak cap late Friday
on the northeast plains, but overall we think that threat is
quite low or only isolated storm coverage possible. Saturday will
see a cold front arrive behind a Northern Plains shortwave, so
perhaps enough moistening of the column to bring a chance of
showers and storms late.
We are still on track to get into a cooler and more active weather
pattern Sunday into early next week. That occurs as we transition
to more of a northwest flow aloft as the Southern Rockies ridge
retrogrades and general troughiness occurs across the Midwest.
More autumlike temperatures can be expected at this time with
highs mostly in the 70s, although couldn`t rule out a cloudier,
showery day with highs holding in the 60s if a stronger
front/shortwave coexist. Ensemble output shows odds of that
increasing to near 50% by Monday.
Ensemble members and averages show flat ridging toward the mid to
end part of next week, which should promote another gradual drying
and warming trend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 501 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023
VFR conditions will continue thru the period. Some haze due
to smoke has been in place this aftn but visibility hasn`t
been affected. As for winds they will transition from ESE
to a more SSE direction by 02z. By 06z they will become
more SSW. On Thu, light winds in the morning will becoming
light north by 18z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023
Elevated fire weather conditions can be expected from Thursday
through Saturday during the afternoon hours. That`s when
humidities in the high mountain valleys, lower foothills, and
plains drop to 15 percent or less. Wind gusts should mostly peak
in the 20-25 mph range during peak heating and mixing, so critical
Red Flag conditions are not anticipated at this time.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Sep 6 2023
Through Friday, there is little if any chance of precipitation,
and thus no flood threat. Any storms that develop late Saturday
will likely be on the lighter side.
Shower and storm coverage is expected to increase Sunday into
Monday. Moisture will be increasing but there is only limited
instability. The Front Range appears to have the best shot of
rainfall due to shallow upslope and higher atmospheric moisture
content. As a result, a limited threat of flash flooding may
develop in the Cameron Peak burn area by Sunday and continue into
early next week.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...RPK
FIRE WEATHER...Danielson
HYDROLOGY...Barjenbruch
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
733 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
Another quiet and seasonably mild evening across the forecast area.
The overall dry atmosphere has kept the warm temperatures tolerable
and allowed for quicker cool-downs in the evening. Only a few
sprinkles have managed to develop along the sea breeze as it moves
inland. Dry conditions are expected to remain through tomorrow, but
moisture looks to increase into Friday and this weekend. That means
better rain chances, but also increasing humidity. So enjoy the low
dew points while you can!
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
VFR conditions this evening for all terminals. Coastal locations
have seen winds turn out of the W/NW as the sea breeze moves inland.
Look for light and variable winds overnight, increasing slightly and
becoming westerly once again on Thursday morning. VFR conditions
expected through the period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2023
Weak ridging remains centered over the FL peninsula with a light and
variable low-level flow and a northerly upper-level flow. This combo
is leading to warm, but dry conditions. The morning PW value was
only 1.25 inches and the latest AMDAR soundings for TPA show that
the PW has actually declined to 1.22 inches. Drier air noted
especially in the 850-500mb layer is mixing down to the surface,
keeping heat indices within about 5 degrees of the actual air
temperature. It is still plenty hot outside, but at least it doesn`t
feel quite as oppressive as it did a little over a week ago.
As the ridge that has seemingly been parked over the Southwest CONUS
all summer builds once again, the pattern in the E CONUS will
amplify further in response. While weak low-level riding looks to
largely remain for the next several days, an upper-level trough axis
looks to dig into Central FL by the end of the week. In response,
rain chances will start to creep back up on Thursday (with a few
isolated storms possible across the interior) as the flow starts to
veer more southwesterly. For Friday and the weekend, it looks like
we will start to cross into the scattered threshold as moisture
continues to deepen and additional upper-level forcing for ascent.
Rain chances go from near zero today, to around 20% across the
interior tomorrow, to 30 to 50% through the weekend. This is more
conservative than some guidance, but admittedly a little more
optimistic than what may actually materialize. There still looks to
be a northerly upper-level component to the wind that could work to
limit the overall depth of moisture and subsequent thunderstorm
potential.
Into next week, it looks like the upper-level pattern should flatten
out. Assuming this actually occurs, a light E to ESE low-level flow
and light westerly flow aloft should setup with diurnal convection
and warm and humid conditions continuing as well. There are
uncertainties into next week that could have an impact on how this
actually materializes, but overall expecting more typical summertime
conditions to return and continue into next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 93 77 91 / 0 20 10 40
FMY 76 93 76 92 / 10 20 10 40
GIF 73 95 74 93 / 0 20 10 50
SRQ 75 92 76 91 / 0 20 20 40
BKV 71 94 72 92 / 0 10 10 40
SPG 80 90 80 89 / 0 20 20 40
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...ADavis
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close