Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 08/13/23

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 805 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

All shower and tstm activity has ended early this evening with
little if any additional activity expected overnight. A cold front
will move across nern CO late tonight thru Sun morning with gusty
north winds behind it.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

For the rest of this afternoon and evening, radar this afternoon
shows the best is along and south of I-76, but scattered showers
and storms developing over the higher terrain may spread onto the
adjacent plains by this evening. MLCAPEs this afternoon was near
250 j/kg off the ACARs soundings this afternoon but precipitable
water values are near one inch. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty
outflow winds will be the main concern with the stronger slow
moving storms. The greatest CAPE this afternoon will be over the
far northeast plains, where SPC analysis indicates 100 mb mixed
layer CAPE around 2000 j/kg. One or two strong/severe
thunderstorms will be possible there. Showers and storms will
taper off later this evening.

On Sunday, a cold front associated with a passing short wave
trough will push into Denver around 9 AM. Gusty north to northeast
winds will develop and should persist into early afternoon. High
temperatures will likely fall short of the 80 degree mark. The
models show little if any shower development across the plains as
the lower levels become increasingly stable. Showers and storms
in the afternoon will occur primarily over the mountains,
foothills and South Park. MLCAPEs over the mountains 300-400 j/kg
in the mountains with PWATs in the 0.5-0.6 inch range. The storms
that do develop could again produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty
winds. Storm motions generally in the 10-15 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1258 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

We`ll start the work week off with well below normal temperatures
across the plains, as cool stable air remains in place east of
the divide. Some low cloud cover may linger along the Front Range
through the day with shallow moisture/upslope, but guidance is in
relatively good agreement that this will burn off by Monday
afternoon. Most of the I-25 corridor and plains will be left with
fall-like weather, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s.
There may be just enough instability and moisture left for a few
showers or an isolated storm over South Park, with dry conditions
across the rest of the mountains.

The rest of the week should feature fairly quiet conditions
across the forecast area, with a gradual warming trend likely
across the plains. The pattern overall looks fairly stagnant, with
upper ridging building over the intermountain West early in the
week... which will then slowly shift east with time. Temperatures
will rebound into the upper 80s to low 90s on Tuesday, and should
remain in the 90s through the rest of the week.

The main question will be how much moisture remains in the area
underneath the ridge. Guidance is generally dry/stable across the
region through most of the week, with GEFS probabilities of >500
J/kg CAPE remaining modest through at least Thursday. Moisture
should slowly increase through the week across the mountains,
while most areas east of the divide remain dry. It looks like the
best combination of moisture/instability comes Friday into next
weekend, though this would still likely be marginally strong
convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 505 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Winds switched to a WNW direction due to a boundary associated
with high based showers. Winds should turn more to the SSW by
01z. Otherwise a cold front will move across the area by 14z on
Sun with gusty NNE winds behind it. Winds will stay gusty from
the NNE thru the aftn.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1258 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Isolated to scattered storms possible until early this evening
with a limited threat of flash flooding in the burn areas. The
overall burn area flash flooding threat will remain low through
the week, with only modest chances for storms through Thursday. A
slight increase in moisture and instability may justify a limited
threat of flash flooding over the East Troublesome and Cameron
Peak burn areas Friday into next weekend.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RPK
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Hiris
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...Cooper/Hiris