Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/18/23

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

 621 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Upper level high pressure is fully in control of the weather across
the forecast area with clear skies courtesy of subsidence from the
upper ridge. The center of this ridge has shifted eastward to
western New Mexico and will shift a but farther eastward tomorrow.
The increased thicknesses point to hotter temperatures, generally on
the order of 4-8 degrees from today`s highs will little moderation
needed due to differences in insolation, humidity, or wind
direction. Heat products remain supported with highs east of the
caprock and the southern South Plains near 110 and a solid 105+
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

Upper level ridging to remain overhead Wednesday with little change
in heights/thicknesses and humidity, but a slight downward
modulation may be in play relative to Tuesday`s highs may occur to a
slight backing of the low level flow and the loss of a downslope
component to the warming. Thursday will begin to see a reversion to
a regime more similar to this past weekend as the upper high shifts
back to west and the flow amplifies. This will result in
temperatures heading back downward and the return of precipitation
chances with potential for northwest flow storms coming off the
Raton Mesa and Sangre de Cristos. Potential northwest flow events
Wednesday and Thursday nights look likely to stay farther to the
north with a genesis/initiation area more likely in Colorado, but a
shift of the ridge westward and better upslope in northern New
Mexico Friday afternoon should bring best window for a nocturnal MCS
to the forecast area Friday night. Backed southeasterly low level
flow and lower thicknesses point to cooler temperatures Friday and
Saturday before we swing back toward hot and dry with the upper
ridge swinging back to the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023

VFR. LLWS will develop at KCDS, KLBB, and KPVW tonight; and will
persist through the mid-morning hours tomorrow. Shear magnitudes
at around 30 kt as low as 900 ft AGL and 600 ft AGL can be
expected at KCDS, and KLBB and KPVW, respectively. LLWS will
dissipate as the lower airmass couples as the low-level jet
mixes out and translates into low-end windy conditions out of the
southwest by late tomorrow morning. Southwesterly winds will ramp
up to around 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt at all terminals during
the afternoon hours amidst very hot surface temperatures. Rough
rides are expected for GA and small aircraft tomorrow due to
thermal turbulence amidst the SWLY winds. Smoother air should be
found at around 10 kft MSL INVOF KLBB and KPVW. Check/monitor
density altitude.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ021>032-
036>038-042>044.

Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for TXZ033>035-039>041.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...09