Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/17/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
533 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023
It may be hotter than Hatch green chile the next few days. We
joke, but the heat is really no laughing matter. Triple digit
heat will be quite common for the next few days. Prolonged
exposure could result in heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Remember
to take plenty of breaks and drink a lot of water. Showers and
thunderstorms will be spotty on Monday, ramp up a bit more across
western NM on Tuesday, then better chances for showers and
thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday and beyond. Strong to
severe thunderstorms may return across northeast New Mexico during
the late week period as well. While severe weather may not be
welcome, the storms will help cool temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023
What a difference a day makes. Cumulus clouds are scattered along
the central mountain chain and some of the southwest and north
central high terrain but haven`t built enough to show up on radar.
Short term model trends aren`t favorable for more than an isolated
cell or two to make an appearance over the CWA through sunset. There
will likely be a relatively light east to southeast canyon wind
tonight in the Santa Fe and Albuquerque metros which will help boost
humidities a little for the overnight but this is not expected to be
much of a factor for any convection Monday. Some mid level moisture
is forecast to start to migrate under the ridge aloft Monday and
moreso Monday night, which would lead to potential for some dry and
gusty convection over western and portions of central New Mexico.
Near record heat will be experienced by many locales across northern
and central New Mexico Monday afternoon. Have added a few zones to
the ongoing Heat Advisory. Warmer guidance lows for Monday night are
consistent with the possible increase in mid level moisture as
the upper high is centered over the CWA.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023
Tuesday will be the hottest day of the week for much of central
and all of eastern NM. Triple digit heat will be common for lower
elevations, and all areas will be 8 to 16 degrees above normal for
mid July. That`s hot! An Excessive Heat Watch has already been
issued for the Chaves County Plains where temperatures should
easily top 110 degrees, with the official forecast for Roswell a
whopping 112 degrees. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon, mainly over
western NM. Given how warm it will be at the surface and
anticipated high dewpoint depressions, it`s likely that these
storms will produce gusty outflow winds, but the wetting rainfall
may be spotty.
The 599dam H5 high over central NM on Tuesday may elongate west
to east on Wednesday, but will remain just as strong over NM and
may increase to 600dam. A bit more mid level moisture will seep
into NM beneath the ridge Tuesday night into Wednesday, allowing
for more cloud cover and an increase in thunderstorm coverage
Wednesday afternoon. Wetting rainfall will remain spotty across
western NM, but the trend is a good one. Meanwhile, a weak, but
moist, boundary will push into northeast NM Tuesday night into
early Wednesday, and this boundary will likely be a focus for
stronger storms Wednesday afternoon across northeast NM. With more
storms forecast, temperatures will trend down just a bit. It will
still be hot, especially in those areas not expecting
precipitation, like Roswell, which could still reach 110 degrees.
The storms across northeast NM on Wednesday will reinforce the
boundary Wednesday night, then we will rinse and repeat for
Thursday afternoon and evening. Another round of strong to severe
storms are expected across the northeast quarter, while isolated
to scattered storms are possible elsewhere. The upper level high
will be inching westward on Thursday and should set up over
northeast AZ by Friday. Again, the boundary across northeast NM
will be reinforced, and another round of afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected across eastern NM on Friday. With the
high shifting westward, storm motions may be more toward the south
or southeast, allowing for a larger portion of eastern NM to see
strong to severe storms, as well as heavy rainfall Friday
afternoon and evening. Though a weak gap wind is possible in the
central valleys Thursday night, a stronger east wind is likely
Friday night, which will do a better job of replenishing moisture
west of the Central Mountain Chain. Thus, a better crop of showers
and thunderstorms will be possible for western and central NM on
Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023
A swath of dry air has pivoted into much of northern and central
New Mexico, and this along with warmer, stable air aloft is limiting
thunderstorm development early this evening. Light to moderate
breezes and VFR conditions are expected to persist tonight through
Monday morning. Isolated, high-based thunderstorms and virga
(evaporating rainfall) will be possible Monday afternoon, mainly
in the southwestern and south central mountains and perhaps over
the central highlands near KCQC and KSXU. These showers and storms
will produce mostly light rainfall, but the evaporation below
cloud bases could lead to abrupt gusty winds underneath. Also, hot
temperatures will persist with high density altitude readings,
suggesting poor aircraft performance.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Jul 16 2023
Near record heat, very dry and unstable conditions will persist over
northern and western NM for the next several days. Better low level
moisture will remain over eastern NM where overnight humidity
recoveries will be fair to good through Tuesday then improve
Wednesday through Saturday as moisture is boosted by nightly surface
or thunderstorm outflow boundaries. Mid level moisture will seep
into the upper ridge with increasing potential for some dry showers
and storms with erratic gusty winds at least through Tuesday.
Chances for wetting storms increase over northeast and east central
NM later this week as the upper high shifts back toward the Great
Basin. High temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler toward the
end of the work week but remain warmer than normal. The exception
would be over northeast NM, where they fall to near average or
slightly below Thursday and Friday.
Localized fair to poor ventilation rates are possible across the
Central Highlands into the Northeast Plains Wednesday through
Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 56 103 62 102 / 0 0 0 5
Dulce........................... 47 98 50 97 / 0 0 0 5
Cuba............................ 54 96 58 97 / 0 5 0 5
Gallup.......................... 47 101 58 98 / 0 0 5 20
El Morro........................ 50 96 58 94 / 0 0 5 20
Grants.......................... 47 100 58 99 / 0 5 5 20
Quemado......................... 51 97 63 95 / 5 20 20 30
Magdalena....................... 63 96 68 97 / 10 20 10 20
Datil........................... 55 94 63 93 / 10 20 10 20
Reserve......................... 55 100 61 99 / 10 20 20 30
Glenwood........................ 64 103 71 102 / 20 20 20 30
Chama........................... 46 92 50 92 / 0 0 0 5
Los Alamos...................... 62 96 64 96 / 5 10 0 10
Pecos........................... 59 96 63 97 / 10 10 5 5
Cerro/Questa.................... 49 92 51 95 / 0 5 0 10
Red River....................... 49 86 49 88 / 5 10 0 10
Angel Fire...................... 45 86 46 88 / 10 10 0 10
Taos............................ 53 97 55 98 / 5 5 0 5
Mora............................ 53 92 57 95 / 10 10 5 10
Espanola........................ 57 100 59 104 / 5 5 5 5
Santa Fe........................ 63 97 65 98 / 10 10 0 5
Santa Fe Airport................ 60 100 63 100 / 10 10 0 5
Albuquerque Foothills........... 70 100 72 102 / 0 10 0 5
Albuquerque Heights............. 71 102 73 103 / 0 10 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 103 66 104 / 0 10 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 69 102 71 103 / 0 10 0 5
Belen........................... 69 105 71 104 / 0 10 5 5
Bernalillo...................... 65 104 69 106 / 5 10 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 63 103 69 104 / 0 10 5 5
Corrales........................ 66 103 70 105 / 0 10 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 66 104 71 104 / 0 10 5 5
Placitas........................ 65 100 69 103 / 5 10 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 68 102 71 104 / 0 10 0 5
Socorro......................... 70 105 72 106 / 10 10 5 10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 61 96 67 97 / 10 10 0 5
Tijeras......................... 64 97 69 99 / 10 10 0 5
Edgewood........................ 59 98 66 100 / 10 10 0 5
Moriarty/Estancia............... 56 99 63 101 / 10 10 0 5
Clines Corners.................. 59 95 64 97 / 10 10 5 5
Mountainair..................... 62 97 68 98 / 10 10 5 5
Gran Quivira.................... 64 97 67 98 / 10 10 5 5
Carrizozo....................... 69 99 71 101 / 10 10 10 5
Ruidoso......................... 62 90 66 93 / 20 20 10 10
Capulin......................... 59 92 63 94 / 0 0 0 20
Raton........................... 57 96 59 99 / 5 0 0 10
Springer........................ 57 96 60 100 / 5 5 0 5
Las Vegas....................... 56 96 61 98 / 10 5 0 5
Clayton......................... 64 97 69 99 / 5 0 0 10
Roy............................. 61 96 65 99 / 5 5 5 10
Conchas......................... 64 100 69 106 / 0 0 10 0
Santa Rosa...................... 65 102 70 102 / 0 0 10 0
Tucumcari....................... 65 105 72 106 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 66 102 71 106 / 0 0 5 0
Portales........................ 68 104 72 107 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 69 105 72 106 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 73 108 74 112 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 67 101 69 103 / 10 5 10 10
Elk............................. 64 95 66 100 / 20 10 5 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-205-219.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for NMZ201-202-
205>208-211-212-217>221-234-237>239.
Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NMZ238.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...52
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
400 PM MST Sun Jul 16 2023
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and persistent high pressure system will continue to
predominate through the week, resulting in near record temperatures
each day. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect across the
area with most places seeing widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk.
Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances the next couple days will
mainly be confined to higher terrain areas of eastern and
southeastern Arizona.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Latest satellite imagery reveals the remnants of a decaying MCS
moving steadily westward across the Baja Peninsula. This system
brought an influx of low-level moisture to the area overnight and
dewpoints at this hour remain above normal and several degrees
higher than at this time yesterday. Meanwhile, the increased
moisture has tempered the heating somewhat and it now appears
unlikely Phoenix will tie the daily record of 118 degrees set in
1925. Forecast high was adjusted downward to 115 degrees.
Nevertheless, the well above normal temperatures and increased
humidity are still creating oppressive conditions and the Excessive
Heat Warning remains in effect for today and the next several days.
Latest RAP analysis places the center of the mid-level anticyclone
near Las Vegas, resulting in a light easterly flow across the lower
deserts. This along with PWATs near 1.2 inches would normally
promote isolated thunderstorm activity, however the morning ACARS
sounding indicates a well-defined subsidence inversion near 700 mb,
which will inhibit convection this afternoon.
Models remain in good agreement, depicting the Monsoon high shifting
eastward towards the Arizona/New Mexico border Monday. Latest
deterministic NBM again suggests record breaking temperatures of 118
degrees in Phoenix, though temperatures a few degrees lower are
certainly possible if dewpoints are on the higher side of the
forecast envelope. Reaching the 110 degree mark is a near certainty
in Phoenix, which will make it the 18th day in a row with highs at
or above 110 degrees, tying the record set in June of 1974.
Meanwhile, there is also a discernible signal in the 12z HREF,
indicating isolated thunderstorm development late Monday afternoon
across southern Maricopa/Pinal Counties. Ensemble max wind gusts
suggest the potential for 60 mph, which will be strong enough to
produce areas of blowing dust and even additional thunderstorm
development a bit further north. There is roughly a 50 percent
chance of gusts reaching 35 mph in these areas, which will be
sufficient for at least localized reductions in visibility.
The Monsoon High will remain the predominant weather feature through
the week. Model ensemble suites generally indicate the center of the
high will migrate a bit eastward, with the ridge axis remaining
draped across Arizona. This will continue to translate into near
record temperatures each day as well as the continuation of the
streak of 110+ degree high temperatures for Phoenix. Also worth
noting is the forecast low temperature of 96 degrees in Phoenix
Wednesday morning would tie the all-time record for the highest low
temperature. When overnight temperatures are this high, the body has
a difficult time recuperating. With little to no relief from the
excessive heat overnight and the prolonged nature of the heat wave,
extreme HeatRisk will impact the general population including long-
time residents that are normally acclimated to the extreme
conditions.
Forecast uncertainty will increase midweek while low-level mixing
ratios are generally expected to decrease across the lower deserts.
Highest PoPs remain focused in the climatologically favored areas of
southeastern Arizona and the Mogollon Rim, but it is conceivable
thunderstorm activity, or at least an outflow boundary, will creep
closer to the lower deserts at least one day this week.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2300Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major weather issues should exist through Monday afternoon under
periods of passing thicker high cirrus cigs. West winds will prevail
through the evening with some evidence continuing to show gusts
~20kt reemerging later in the evening with a well defined Gulf
Surge, though confidence is waning somewhat. Nevertheless, the
typical morning easterly wind should be temporally shorter than usual
with west winds becoming established again by late Monday morning.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Only periods of thicker high cirrus cigs will spill over SE
California terminals through Monday afternoon. Winds will remain out
of a southerly direction through the period with some oscillation
between SE and SW. Some occasionally stronger gusts would also not be
uncommon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Well above average temperatures are expected this weekend and much
of next week with highs reaching 112-120 degrees across the lower
deserts. Overnight relief will be limited with lows only falling to
the mid-80s to mid-90s. Minimum humidity will be around 10-20% this
weekend with overnight Max RHs around 30-50% for most areas. Low
level moisture will increase early this week as well as the
potential for thunderstorms across south-central Arizona. Gusty
erratic winds and dry lightning will be the main concern with any
thunderstorm that may develop. Winds will tend to follow typical
diurnal and terrain influences, with occasional afternoon gusts up
to 20-25 mph.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
PHOENIX YUMA EL CENTRO
July 16 118 (1925) 116 (1960) 119 (1936)
July 17 116 (2005) 117 (2005) 121 (2005)
July 18 115 (1989) 117 (1960) 117 (2009)
July 19 116 (1989) 115 (2000) 117 (1978)
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ530>544-
546-548>551-553>555-559.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ545-547-552-
560-561.
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for
AZZ556>558-562-563.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ560>570.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Smith/Salerno
CLIMATE...Kuhlman