Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/16/23
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
555 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023
It`s hot. Although temperatures will wobble a few degrees here or
there the next few days, the simple fact is, it will remain hot.
Monday and Tuesday look to be the hottest days of the next week
for most locations, with triple digit heat common. Some relief may
be in store late week across eastern New Mexico. Storm chances
will be high for the rest of this afternoon and evening across
eastern New Mexico where strong to severe storms are likely. Heavy
rain will also be possible. Storm chances dwindle for the Sunday
through Tuesday time period, but moisture intrusions across
eastern New Mexico mid to late week will increase shower and
thunderstorm chances there once again. Additionally, storms should
become slightly more common across western New Mexico by mid to
late week as modest mid level moisture oozes in beneath the stout
upper level high pressure system.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023
A rather vigorous push westward of low level moisture occurred last
night, and some of the higher dewpoints in the Rio Grande Valley
have yet to mix out this afternoon. Can`t rule out an isolated dry
and gusty shower or storm but any activity would likely diminish by
sunset. That said, storms have been forming along the Sangre de
Cristo mountains and moving southeast to slightly south as well, and
will likely increase in number as the afternoon progresses. Models
continue the idea of another vigorous surge of low level moisture on
a gusty east wind into the Rio Grande Valley toward the Continental
Divide tonight with convection persisting over portions of the east
after midnight. Similar to last night, suspect the east wind into
the ABQ metro will occur sooner than models indicate and be similar
in strength, especially if storms track closer to the central
mountain chain. In fact the NAM12 suggests this, with a burst of
wind early evening then another later in the evening/overnight with
storms tracking farther east and closer to the TX border. If this
scenario pans out, hopefully it won`t trigger more convection in
the RGV later into the evening.
On Sunday the upper high center is forecast to drift back over NM.
Despite the moist westerly push tonight, models generate very little
precipitation, likely due to strong subsidence. Can`t rule out a few
cells over the central and southwest high terrain though, given the
uptick in high temperatures. Quite a few areas may see near record
highs Sunday afternoon, and have issued a Heat Advisory for the
Middle RGV, West Central and Northwest Plateau. Any storms on
Sunday afternoon should fade away by sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023
On Monday, the 599-600dam H5 high will shift back eastward and
will be centered in the vicinity of KGUP. This will mean high
temperatures will crank up even higher than what they have been,
records will be in jeopardy for the date, and widespread Heat
Advisories will be likely. Meanwhile, as the high shifts back
eastward, drier air will filter farther eastward across NM, not
just across the northwest. The high dewpoints across eastern NM
this weekend will mix out into the 40s. Hence, the chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be limited. What storms do develop
will favor the southwest mountains and areas just east of the
Central Mountain Chain along the remnant boundary.
By Tuesday, the upper high will be centered over central NM and
the strength of the high is not expected to change. Drier air will
still be present beneath the high, which will allow temps to soar
once again. High temperatures across much of eastern NM should be
a few degrees warmer overall, and an Excessive Heat Warning may be
needed for the Chaves County Plains. Temps across western NM may
be 1 to 3 degrees cooler, but they may still be warm enough for a
few Heat Advisories. Showers and thunderstorms will remain scarce,
favoring portions of western NM.
For the rest of the work week, the upper high will move very
little, but may weaken slightly to near 597-598 dam by Friday and
by Friday night, should shift westward slightly. There also looks
to be daily rounds of thunderstorm activity starting Wednesday
afternoon across southeast CO and northeast NM that will help push
a moist outflow boundary south and westward each night. This will
help to cool temperatures off across the east each day, but will
also provide more fuel, in terms of low level moisture, for storms
along and east of the Central Mountain Chain each afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms may be strong or severe. Meanwhile
across western NM, scattered storms will remain possible, but will
be limited by the strength of the high. There does appear to be
some mid level moisture that squeaks beneath the high, but it will
not be as robust as the low level moisture intrusions across
eastern NM.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 547 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are currently along and
east of the central mountain chain of New Mexico early this
evening. Forecast models indicate a cluster of storms will develop
over the northeastern plains later this evening and eventually
drop southward into the east central plains with activity
persisting into the early morning hours. The usual aviation
hazards of lightning, downburst winds and brief heavy downpours
will be found with this activity, along with large hail. An
easterly wind is expected to push against the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristos early Sunday morning, leading to low stratus and
MVFR to IFR ceilings near KAXX and likely just west of KLVS.
These east winds will accelerate through central canyons again
with gusts of 35 kt possible at KABQ which will likely require
another Airport Weather Warning. Minimal storm activity is
expected on Sunday, mainly staying isolated and confined to the
Sangre de Cristo and Sacramentos. Hot temperatures will continue
to lead to high density altitude readings, suggesting poor
aircraft performance for many.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2023
Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will persist
through early next week over portions of northwest and west central
NM due to near record heat, occasional afternoon breezes and a very
dry and unstable airmass. Wetting showers and storms will be focused
from the east slopes of the central mountain chain over the eastern
plains for the rest of this afternoon and tonight. While low level
moisture will push back westward into the Rio Grande Valley tonight,
the upper high will move back over NM on Sunday, with strong
subsidence likely limiting the number and areal coverage of any
storms to the highest terrain of the central mountain chain and
southwest. The upper high will strengthen it`s grip on the southern
Rockies through the upcoming work week, with abnormally warm to hot
temperatures. Moisture may eventually seep under the ridge, allowing
for greater areal coverage of showers and storms over western and
northern NM next Thursday through Saturday and offering not quite as
hot high temperatures.
Localized fair to poor ventilation rates are possible across the
Central Highlands into the Northeast Plains Sunday and again
Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 56 101 58 104 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 46 93 46 98 / 0 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 54 93 56 97 / 0 0 0 5
Gallup.......................... 48 100 52 101 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 51 94 54 96 / 0 0 0 10
Grants.......................... 51 98 54 101 / 0 0 0 5
Quemado......................... 57 96 59 96 / 5 5 10 20
Magdalena....................... 64 94 66 97 / 10 10 5 20
Datil........................... 59 93 61 94 / 10 10 5 20
Reserve......................... 56 100 58 100 / 10 10 10 30
Glenwood........................ 66 103 70 103 / 20 20 20 30
Chama........................... 46 89 47 91 / 5 0 0 5
Los Alamos...................... 62 91 63 95 / 10 5 5 5
Pecos........................... 58 91 61 96 / 20 10 5 20
Cerro/Questa.................... 49 89 49 95 / 20 10 5 10
Red River....................... 48 85 46 88 / 30 10 0 10
Angel Fire...................... 46 84 44 86 / 30 20 0 10
Taos............................ 57 92 53 97 / 20 10 0 5
Mora............................ 52 87 54 93 / 30 20 5 20
Espanola........................ 59 98 56 103 / 10 5 5 5
Santa Fe........................ 62 92 64 96 / 20 10 5 10
Santa Fe Airport................ 65 96 63 99 / 10 5 0 5
Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 97 68 101 / 10 5 0 5
Albuquerque Heights............. 72 99 70 103 / 10 0 0 5
Albuquerque Valley.............. 65 100 70 105 / 10 0 0 5
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 68 99 68 104 / 10 0 0 0
Belen........................... 69 101 67 105 / 10 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 65 100 67 105 / 10 0 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 66 100 67 104 / 10 0 0 0
Corrales........................ 66 100 68 105 / 10 0 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 68 100 68 105 / 10 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 66 97 65 102 / 10 5 0 5
Rio Rancho...................... 67 99 67 104 / 10 0 0 0
Socorro......................... 70 102 71 106 / 10 5 5 5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 91 63 95 / 10 10 0 10
Tijeras......................... 62 94 64 98 / 10 10 0 10
Edgewood........................ 59 94 60 99 / 10 10 0 10
Moriarty/Estancia............... 58 95 58 100 / 20 10 0 10
Clines Corners.................. 57 90 61 95 / 20 10 0 20
Mountainair..................... 60 93 64 97 / 10 10 0 10
Gran Quivira.................... 62 93 65 97 / 20 10 5 10
Carrizozo....................... 67 96 69 100 / 20 10 5 10
Ruidoso......................... 59 89 63 91 / 30 20 5 20
Capulin......................... 55 84 59 91 / 60 10 0 10
Raton........................... 55 91 56 95 / 50 10 0 5
Springer........................ 55 90 57 97 / 50 10 0 10
Las Vegas....................... 54 89 58 95 / 30 10 0 20
Clayton......................... 60 91 64 96 / 60 20 0 0
Roy............................. 58 88 61 95 / 70 10 0 5
Conchas......................... 64 95 65 102 / 50 10 0 5
Santa Rosa...................... 65 94 66 99 / 30 10 0 5
Tucumcari....................... 65 99 67 102 / 60 10 0 0
Clovis.......................... 65 98 67 102 / 50 20 0 0
Portales........................ 67 99 68 103 / 40 20 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 68 98 69 102 / 30 10 0 0
Roswell......................... 73 102 73 108 / 10 10 0 0
Picacho......................... 66 95 67 100 / 20 10 5 5
Elk............................. 62 92 64 97 / 20 20 5 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ201-219.
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ201-205-219.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...52
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1028 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain ends from west to east evening. Sunday should feature dry
conditions and partly cloudy skies although some Canadian wildfire
smoke may impact the area. Rain chances increase once again on
Monday and into next week as a series of disturbances move through
the area.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A large mean mid level trof is situated from south central
Canada thru the eastern CONUS. An embedded shortwave and weak
surface low continues to pivot thru Ohio this evening. Latest
meso analysis shows some marginal instability continuing across
the area. Radar shows a few scattered shows and perhaps a
thunderstorm in ILN/s eastern FA. This convection will continue
to diminish from west to east with loss of daytime heating and
with the weak low exiting the area.
In weak flow environment the development of fog and stratus is
possible overnight. The best threat for stratus looks to be
focused over the east. Temperatures drop into the middle 60s
and upper 60s by morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A PWAT minimum will be in place over the Ohio Valley on Sunday into
the first half of Sunday night. Dry air should help keep partly
cloudy skies in place along with dry conditions during the day and
into the evening hours. Westerly and northwesterly flow may bring in
some more Canadian wildfire smoke, but there is still some
uncertainty as to the concentration and impacts. Forecast highs are
in the middle to upper 80s.
Rain chances start to increase once again Sunday night as PWAT
increases ahead of a secondary cold front and upper level wave.
Clouds build through the night and lows drop into the middle 60s.
Rain chances arrive in western in Ohio and eastern Indiana by
sunrise Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Monday, a large upper level low will be centered over northern
Ontario, with a general pattern of troughing extending through the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A shortwave and associated cold front
will be upstream of the area on Monday morning, gradually
approaching and then passing through by Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Ahead of these features, conditions will be favorable for
ascent, and showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Have
included categorical PoPs for Monday afternoon. Models are not
suggesting high confidence in noteworthy instability or shear, so
while a few strong to maybe severe storms could be possible, not
seeing evidence at the moment for a greater threat.
A broad pattern of troughing is expected to remain in place through
the rest of the week over Ontario and Quebec, with the Ohio Valley
on the southern periphery of this longwave flow pattern. This
pattern will support chances of showers and thunderstorms at various
times through the week, with large-scale flow going from generally
northwesterly on Tuesday and Wednesday to zonal on Thursday and
Friday. A frontal zone, stalling just south of the area, may
eventually focus some showers and storms over Kentucky and southern
IN/OH on Tuesday and Tuesday night, before chances spread across the
rest of the area for Wednesday and beyond. Specifics on timing may
be dependent on mesoscale details that are hard to delineate at this
distance in the forecast. So, for the most part, 20-50 percent
precipitation chances will be maintained from Wednesday through
Friday.
Temperatures through the extended period will be near normal for the
most part -- perhaps a couple degrees below normal on days with more
convection or clouds. This means highs generally in the mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s. Late in the week and into next
weekend, another cold front will likely lead to slightly cooler
temperatures again.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A large mean mid level trof is situated from south central
Canada thru the eastern CONUS. Embedded shortwave and weak
surface low continues to pivot thru Ohio this evening. 23Z ACARS
over southwest Ohio showed SB CAPE of 1600 J/KG. This moderate
instability will was fueling scattered showers and thunderstorms
along and east of the I-71 corridor. This convection will
diminish from west to east with loss of daytime heating and
with the weak low exiting the area.
In weak flow environment the development of fog or stratus is
possible overnight. There is a signal for stratus over the east,
so have mentioned MVFR ceilings at the central Ohio TAF sites.
Certainly can not rule out a period of IFR. Have fog mention at
with MVFR restriction at KILN and IFR restrictions at KLUK/
Expect fog to improve early Sunday with VFR conditions expected.
HZ/FU from the wildfires in Canada may reduce visibilities to
the MVFR category but have kept vsbys at 6 miles at this time.
Light southerly/southwesterly flow veers to the west overnight.
Westerly/northwesterly winds increase to around 10 knots after
Sunday with gusts of 18 to 20 kts possible.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Sunday night into
Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...AR