Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/27/23

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

 807 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Very dry air aloft as seen in water vapor imagery and regional
ACARS soundings to keep afternoon convective very isolated and
weak in nature. Weak high pressure over the area with dewpoints
below normal also in the upper 60s to low 70s. Expect the dry
conditions to continue through the evening and overnight hours
with clearing skies most areas. Latest grids and forecasts on
track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
VFR conditions and FEW-SCT clouds to continue tonight and Tuesday
with light SW winds overnight to get sea breeze enhanced Tuesday
afternoon with another below normal summer rain chance day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

The general upper level troughing that has been over the eastern
U.S. for most of this month will persist through this week, but it
will begin to shift east with the ridge over the south central
U.S. building over the Florida peninsula some later this week.
Meanwhile at the surface the ridge axis will remain south of the
region for much of the week, but there are signs it could drift
north over the Florida peninsula this weekend. Moisture will
remain limited through Tuesday, then some deeper moisture will
drift south ahead of a stalling front over the southeast states. A
few shortwaves are expected to be moving through the trough and
these could enhance rain chances some during the second half of
the week, but the timing of these is not totally clear. However,
with the additional moisture we should see a gradual increase in
rain chances each day, especially over the weekend. Highest rain
chances will continue to be over the interior and eastern half of
the Florida peninsula into inland southwest Florida. The other big
thing this week will be the increasing heat as the ridge builds
east with daytime highs climbing into the mid and upper 90s away
from the coast with heat indices 105 to 110 with heat advisories a
possibility.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Pleasant weather can be expected across the eastern gulf waters as
high pressure remains over the area. Rain chances remain low
through the week with light winds 15 knots or less and seas 2 feet
or less. No other marine impacts expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Abundant moisture and light winds will preclude any fire weather
concerns through the week. Rain chances will remain on the low
side into midweek, then increase for the latter part of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  93  80  94 /   0  10  10  30
FMY  77  94  78  95 /  20  30  10  40
GIF  74  95  76  96 /  20  10  10  40
SRQ  77  92  78  93 /   0  10  10  20
BKV  71  93  75  95 /   0  10  20  30
SPG  79  90  81  91 /   0   0  10  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Davis