Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/15/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
A weak cold front brought fog and cooler temperatures temporarily to
the northern Permian Basin. Don`t be fooled though, this front has
mixed-out and temperatures are getting hot fast. Widespread mid 90s
to low 100s can be expected for the majority with 110s along the Rio
Grande. A Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon for portions of
Brewster and Terrell Counties where the hot temperatures are
maximized. Temperatures tonight offer little relief as most
locations only fall to the upper 60s and low 70s. The ridge
continues to strengthen on Thursday. Mid-level temperatures are
expected to increase 1-3 C across the region. This results in
afternoon temperatures climbing into the 100s for many. Even the
mountains will push well into the 90s. Temperatures will even be
well into the 110s in Big Bend National Park along the Rio Grande!
As a result of the expanding heat, a Heat Advisory is in effect for
the southern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Temperatures
overnight Thursday remain almost identical to tonight. Triple-digit
heat continues to expand and worsen in the long-term period.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
There isn`t much to discuss in the long term other than it will be
hot. The mid level ridge that is currently over the area will
flatten somewhat late in the week into the weekend as a shortwave
moves across the Plains. This will do little to affect the overall
temperatures for much of the area along and west of the Pecos River.
These locations will remain hot each day with little if any relief
from day to day. Further east across the Permian Basin we will need
to monitor for nearly daily outflow boundaries/cold frontal
intrusions. Similar to what occurred a few days ago and this morning,
we could see cooler air slip into the area from the north and
northeast on occasion when a complex of storms develops across the
TX PH. These are extremely hard to predict, especially several days
out. This pattern will last through the weekend so forecast
deviations on max temps are likely, especially the further north and
east you are.
Temperatures early next week look almost unbearable for portions
of the area. While the mid level ridge remains flattened, a
thermal ridge will build over the area Monday with 850 mb temps
pushing 35C! This would mean highs 105+ for most, 115 along the
Rio Grande and even near 100 in the higher terrain. Easterly flow
will increase at the surface later next week and could offer some
relief across eastern areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
VFR conditions will continue for all TAF sites. Light winds will
continue through the next 12 to 18 hours before increasing and
becoming gusty late in the TAF period. Low level turbulence may be
a concern for light general aviation aircraft after 18Z.
Hennig
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Hot, dry conditions have set in and fuels are in the process of
drying out across much of the area. Along and west of the Pecos
River we are seeing ERC values above the 50th and near the 75th
percentile with little rain over the last week and little to no
overnight recovery. Winds will increase in these areas to near
25-30 mph with RHs falling into the single digits Thursday
afternoon. Even though fuel loading is still below normal,
critical to locally extreme fire weather conditions could lead to
an uptick in IA if a fire starts. Very hot and dry conditions will
continue for the foreseeable future so periods of critical fire
weather conditions will be possible during windy conditions.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 67 102 65 102 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 69 101 69 102 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 74 106 74 106 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 71 105 72 103 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 66 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 65 98 64 100 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 59 97 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 69 103 69 104 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 70 103 71 104 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 68 104 68 105 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
Thursday for Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains
Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-
Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-
Winkler.
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for Central
Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Crane-Lower Brewster County-
Pecos-Reagan-Terrell-Upton.
Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Central Brewster
County-Lower Brewster County-Terrell.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for Chaves
Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
Mountains.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...10