Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/13/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
659 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The outflow boundary associated with this morning`s convection
along the Red River has pushed well south into Central Texas and
has limited any convective attempts this afternoon across the Big
Country. A few cells have developed and quickly become severe with
a threat for large hail west of Mills County and should continue
to track east this evening.
Elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
and north of the Red River after midnight. Although widespread
severe weather is not expected, steep lapse rates may result in
marginally severe hail. Otherwise, a threat for locally heavy rain
and strong winds will exist as this activity moves southeast into
tomorrow morning. While additional thunderstorms are expected east
of I-35 tomorrow afternoon, this will be dependent on the early
morning activity.
Garcia
Previous Discussion:
/Today and Tomorrow/
A cold front moved into North Texas last night and stalled just
south of the I-20 corridor. Elevated storms developed near the Red
River in the early morning hours that has sent a strong outflow
and reinforcing shot of mesoscale-driven cold air south. This has
resulted in falling temperatures and much more stable air moving
into locations north of I-20 over the past couple hours. This will
have an impact on the convective forecast later this afternoon.
First, depending on how far south the cold air is able to get will
push the thunderstorm initiation location south. Second, it will
reduce the storm potential for those north of the boundary.
A weak shortwave trough is currently moving across West Texas and
promoting modest height falls overtop of the forecast area. A
surface low is deepening over the Big Country/Concho Valley with a
triple point evident on GOES-E Mesosector satellite imagery near
Eastland County. This feature may drift a little south due to the
strength of the cold pool...as far south as about Comanche. As far
as how stable the cold pool will remain will be dependent on how
much heating occurs. Stratus behind the cold pool is clearing
quickly over North Texas which will help rebound the instability
over the next several hours. The airmass over D/FW according to
recent ACARS soundings shows a stable airmass from the surface up
to about 3 km, or 700 mb. Our tentative plan is to send up a RAOB
sounding around 330PM to assess the amount of low- level
destabilization. With that being said...the air above 3 km is
still unstable with mid-level lapse rates of 8.6 deg C/km. If
storms are able to develop and reach this level (either from the
surface or elevated), there is potential for rotating updrafts and
large hail this afternoon, even behind the cold pool. There have
been a few convective attempts in the cool airmass, but they have
had little success maintaining much longer than a few minutes.
Surface-based convective initiation should occur near the triple
point later this afternoon, around 5-7 PM. The initial storms that
develop will likely become supercells in short order and move
E & SE through the evening. Relatively straight hodographs will
support another day of splitting storms, which will send some
storms NE overtop of the more stable low-level air. It`s a
question of how far north into the cooler air the storms will be
able to continue, so the stronger cool air that moved through this
morning has improved the outlook for those north of I-20. While
the Metroplex and other areas north of I-20 are still at risk of
receiving severe weather this evening, the threat is lower and
storm coverage should be more isolated than we thought. As far as
south of the boundary over Central Texas...the severe threat
continues. Large hail, possibly up to baseball size and damaging
wind gusts will be the primary threats. There is a low threat of
tornadoes, higher than the past couple days, but still low since
any tornado would be dependent on meso and stormscale boundary
interaction.
Storms should start to weaken over Central Texas late tonight, but
another night of elevated showers and storms is expected north of
the stalled front. The front is expected to linger over North
Texas overnight, so we have increased PoPs north of I-20 for the
overnight hours. While an isolated severe storm is possible with
the late night/early morning activity, most of the storms should
remain sub-severe. There will be an increasing threat of flooding
overnight, particularly along the Red River. Training storms will
be possible with some locations receiving upwards of 2-4" of rain.
Tuesday morning convection will move east and decrease in coverage
late in the morning before another round of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms develop in the afternoon near the stalled front. The
best storm and severe chances will be generally along and east of
I-35, but a lot will depend on the early morning convection. If
the cold pool races south it could dampen storm chances for the
rest of the day...giving the all clear for most of the region in
regard to severe weather.
Bonnette
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 243 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023/
/Tuesday Night Onward/
A mid level ridge centered over Mexico will flatten Tuesday night
as a shortwave traverses the Plains, producing a brief period of
zonal flow over North and Central Texas. The shortwave will give
our meandering front a subtle push southward Tuesday night, but
the front should become stationary again somewhere near or south
of the I-20 corridor again on Wednesday. Scattered showers and
occasional storms may be ongoing across East Texas Tuesday
evening associated with lift ahead of the shortwave. Additional
storms may develop in the vicinity of the surface front overnight
into Wednesday morning as a modest low level jet develops, but
activity should remain fairly isolated.
Convection will exit to the east during the day Wednesday as the
shortwave heads for the Mississippi Valley. Zonal flow aloft will
transition back to anticyclonic Wednesday night into Thursday as
the ridge over Mexico extends north into the Southern Plains.
Subsidence associated with the ridge will keep a lid on convection
for the most part, but the presence of the weak surface front may
still lead to isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening. Low POPs will hence be needed across Central and East
Texas for Thursday.
The main message will otherwise shift to intense heat as the ridge
overhead continues to strengthen. The 590 decameter height at
500mb should reach the Red River by Friday evening and remain
there through the weekend. Triple digit high temperatures will
become pretty common over the weekend as a result, with 105+
degree heat indices also a good possibility. Heat related
headlines may become needed, and folks with outdoor weekend plans
are urged to keep hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade
or an air conditioned building. Also, keep your pets protected and
avoid walking them on hot pavement. A brief break from the heat
may occur Sunday evening along the Red River, where a disturbance
rounding the ridge may generate a brief round of thunderstorms.
Otherwise, hot and rain-free weather will remain the norm, at
least into the first half of next week.
30
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
Convection this afternoon and evening remains well away from the
terminals, mainly impacting the northern and western cornerposts.
While additional thunderstorms may develop this evening near the
terminals, the higher potential will exist at ACT. Another round
of elevated convection is expected after 07-08Z across the
Metroplex terminals, moving southeast through early Tuesday
morning. The overnight activity will impact where thunderstorms
develop tomorrow afternoon, and subsequent TAFs will address this
potential.
Garcia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 87 71 92 73 / 60 40 20 5 10
Waco 72 95 73 97 74 / 40 20 20 5 5
Paris 67 79 68 87 68 / 70 60 50 20 20
Denton 68 86 67 91 68 / 60 40 20 5 5
McKinney 69 84 68 89 70 / 70 60 30 10 10
Dallas 72 88 71 93 72 / 60 40 30 10 10
Terrell 71 87 70 90 71 / 60 40 40 10 10
Corsicana 74 91 74 93 75 / 30 20 30 5 10
Temple 72 96 73 99 74 / 40 20 10 5 5
Mineral Wells 69 89 68 92 70 / 40 20 10 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$