Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 05/10/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
815 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023
...New AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023
Broad, zonal flow with weak upper-level ridging remains in place
today across the region. In response to surface high pressure off
to the east, the surface flow also remains easterly in response.
With the surface high now stretched even farther than it was
yesterday, this flow has been really light. With the light flow, the
sea breeze boundary is becoming quite evident on satellite
imagery and beginning the eastward march. Simultaneously, the east
coast sea breeze is doing the same thing, but trekking westward.
A couple brief showers developed along the west coast sea breeze
already, and it wouldn`t be surprising to see a couple more.
Latest RAP analysis and ACARS soundings from TPA show PW values
around the Bay Area and points northward have increased to right
around 1.5 inches this afternoon. Atmospheric profiles today do
indeed show an atmosphere with additional moisture, compared to
yesterday.
Other than a couple showers today, the bigger potential for storms
starts to creep in tomorrow across the Nature Coast and the Central
FL interior. Ahead of a weakening frontal boundary, moisture is
expected to continue pooling in this region. As the additional
forcing near the boundary combines with additional low-level
forcing from diurnal sea breeze collisions, some thunderstorms
are likely across this region. Looking at forecasted mid-level
temps and atmospheric profiles, conditions look to favor some
potentially stronger storms, with small hail and/or strong gusty
winds with storms not out of the question. A more continental
upper-level airmass, which is a little cooler and drier than the
typical airmass in summer, is the culprit for such a potential as
this.
Tomorrow doesn`t look like it`ll be the last day for stronger storms
either. While the subtropical ridge begins to settle in at the
surface, the upper-level flow hasn`t completely flattened yet. Some
weak upper-level disturbances continue to propagate across the FL
peninsula through the week, aiding vertical ascent into a more
continental airmass aloft. Given additional low-level moisture and
instability, this continues to keep at least some potential for
thunderstorms in the forecast for the days to come. Any storms
that tap into the mid-levels have the potential to be stronger
than most storms that form in July for instance. The most
widespread coverage currently looks to be Thursday as the moisture
axis shifts a little farther south, with lower rain chances
thereafter. So while storms are possible each day, generally not
expecting the same coverage most days that one would expect in
another few weeks.
Regardless of storms, it is going to be pretty warm. With easterly
flow prevailing (and getting a little stronger for the next couple
days with the weak front in the vicinity), the highest temperatures
are probably going to end up being fairly coast to the FL West
Coast. This is because the sea breeze is likely to be slow to get
going and have limited inland progression. Over the next week,
that is really not going to change much either.
So overall, warm (if not hot) weather continues. Isolated to
scattered storms, some of which could be on the stronger side, are
possible each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 813 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023
VFR conditions expected through the period with west to northwest
flow. Chance of storms inland tomorrow with a PROB 30 added to LAL
late in the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023
Easterly flow continues for the most part, except during the
afternoon hours nearshore where a sea breeze is likely to develop.
A slight increase in the easterly winds is possible during the
overnight hours as resistance from the sea breeze wanes. Some
thunderstorms could develop across inland areas and move towards the
coast each day. While winds are generally expected to be less than
15 knots and seas are expected to be two feet or less, locally
hazardous conditions are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Tue May 9 2023
Relative humidity values continue to increase as additional low-
level moisture moves into the region. Thunderstorms begin to
return to the forecast beginning as early as tomorrow across the
Nature Coast and interior, shifting south and west somewhat for
the duration of the week. No significant fire weather concerns
exist for the next few days, other than to note the potential for
some fog tomorrow morning across the Nature Coast, and gusty and
erratic winds in the vicinity of any storms that develop.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 72 92 74 91 / 0 20 10 50
FMY 72 94 74 94 / 0 10 10 60
GIF 69 95 71 91 / 0 30 20 60
SRQ 70 91 72 91 / 0 10 10 50
BKV 64 94 67 93 / 0 30 10 60
SPG 74 89 75 89 / 0 10 10 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana