Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 04/25/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1010 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and colder air over the central United States
will move slowly east through Tuesday. A cold front over the
Deep South and southern Plains will spread rain into the region
Tuesday night and Wednesday. The weather pattern looks cool and
wet for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Monday...
Still no major adjustments for the overnight forecast. Freezing
conditions are still expected across the mountains with a Freeze
Warning in effect overnight. After a small adjustment down
in temperatures across parts of the Piedmont, a couple more
spots of the North Carolina Foothills may see a bit more frost
around daybreak Tuesday, but timing will be limited to about one
hour prior and after sunrise.
As of 730 PM EDT Monday...
Isolated daytime cumulus clouds along the western extent of the
Piedmont region is expected to dissipate around sunset leaving
clear skies for all locations. Clear skies, light winds, and a
broad surface dew point depression will allow for rapid decrease
in temperature this evening. Have tweaked hourly temperature
grids to better reflect the latest observations and the expected
quick drop this evening.
As of 110 PM EDT Monday...
Freeze Warning Tonight...
We are almost fully under a broad surface high this afternoon,
and the center of that high will only continue to meander east
over the next 36 hours. Underneath the influence of this
feature, clouds will be minimal the rest of today and into
Tuesday morning. Cloud cover will increase later on Tuesday in
response to the beginnings of a CAD setup.
Overnight temperatures will be colder than Monday morning`s
lows, as such a Freeze Warning has been issued west of the Blue
Ridge to address temperatures as low as the mid-20s. The
temperature won`t rebound strongly on Tuesday, getting into the
50s and low 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Monday...
Below normal temperatures continue and an increasing chance of rain
as the week progresses...
Persistent and stationary upper low continues to spin over southern
Canada with multiple waves of energy rotating through the upper
pattern. Dry conditions can be expected until the next wave
approaches on Wednesday night and then again Thursday. A round of
showers will be possible Wednesday night, mainly in the mountains of
North Carolina. These look to remain rather light. A stronger wave
with a more widespread chance of rain arrives Thursday/Thursday
night. Still a bit of uncertainty in timing with regards to the
onset of the rainfall, which in turn makes a difference on how much
heating occurs on Thursday. Regardless overrunning moisture will
spread north as cool air wedges south, which usually results in
temperatures running below guidance. With that said, trimmed back
highs on Thursday a few degrees to account for this, but if rainfall
comes in earlier, it may struggle to reach the 50s in some locations
and the current forecast highs may indeed be too optimistic.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Monday...
Cooler temperatures and showery weather to continue into the
weekend...
Model guidance continues to advertise a rather active pattern with
multiple chances of rainfall into the weekend. Anything beyond
Friday is really uncertain with guidance indicating multiple some
differences in the upper levels, but translate to quite a large
difference at the surface in terms of rainfall amounts, timing, and
temperatures. No use in saying one thing will happen over another so
best course of action is to keep below normal temperatures and
showers in the forecast through next Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM ET Monday...
VFR conditions are expected through the valid TAF forecast
period concluding at 00Z Wednesday/8PM EDT Tuesday.
Look for light variable or calm winds trough the same period.
Abundant sub-freezing temperatures are expected overnight along
and west of the crest of the Blue Ridge. Anticipate frost
development on exposed parked aircraft across this region.
Confidence in the above scenario is high.
.Extended Aviation Outlook...
Rain moves back into the area by Wednesday morning with IFR to
MVFR ceiling and visibility possible. There may be a break in
the precipitation and poor flight conditions on Thursday, but
there is a large spread in model guidance. Cool and wet weather
pattern is expected through of the week.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for VAZ007-
009>020-022>024.
NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ001-002-
018.
WV...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ042>044-
507-508.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...DS/VFJ
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/DS/VFJ