Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 03/28/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
702 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night and Tuesday/
A band of rain with scattered elevated thunderstorms has settled
along and south of the I-20 corridor late this afternoon that is
still ongoing. While the initial storms that moved into the
forecast area were able to tap into a localized pool of higher
instability, instability across North Texas has weakened and
should continue to wane this evening. This should result in a
gradual downward trend of the thunder potential and precip
intensity. Even still...an isolated strong storm or two will
remain possible for the next few hours with small hail being the
main threat. While the rain is oriented along a nearly continuous
line extending from Ballinger to Sulfur Springs, light precip
rates due to the precip falling from cloud bases around 6-10 kft
AGL are precluding any flood impacts.
A strong cold front is moving into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles
that will barrel south this evening. Expect FROPA tonight into
the early morning hours that will bring gusty north winds to all
of North and Central Texas tomorrow morning. As the front moves
south of I-20, we`re expecting a thin line of showers to develop
across Central Texas this evening. Lapse rates aloft are forecast
to be just sufficient enough to also develop isolated
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front as well. The best
instability will remain well to our south and southwest, keeping
any threat of severe weather outside of our forecast area tonight.
Tomorrow will start cool and breezy...particularly across Western
North Texas where wind chill values will be in the low-mid 30s.
Generally speaking, winds of 10-20 mph are expected with peak
gusts around 30 mph. Wind speeds will be highest in the morning
and weaken through the afternoon. A canopy of cirrus will stream
overhead all day, limiting insolation and keeping daytime highs
generally in the 60s areawide. Late in the afternoon, isentropic
ascent will start to increase over the northern Hill Country and
the Big Country and build mid-level clouds in from the west. A few
elevated showers are possible, but most of the initial precip will
evaporate before reaching the ground. We have included less than
20% PoPs across our Western Central Texas counties late tomorrow
evening as a shortwave trough moves overtop of the isentropic
ascent and helps increase the precip intensity and chance of
measurable precip.
Bonnette
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2023/
/Tuesday night through Early Next Week/
A weak mid-level disturbance will move across our region Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning resulting in isolated to scattered
showers mainly along and south of I-20. They should be out of our
area by late morning or early afternoon. Otherwise, expect
slightly warmer temperatures on Wednesday as southerly flow
returns. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 60s to low 70s.
The warming trend continues through the rest of the week with
highs in the 70s on Thursday and 80s on Friday. Overnight
temperatures will also be warmer with lows in the 50s and 60s.
The main weather headline continues to be the late week storm
system bringing severe weather potential across our region. As
discussed in previous discussions, Thursday`s severe potential
will be limited due to a slower progression of the upper trough
and notable cap depicted by model soundings. Recent model trends
continue to show the dryline and convection remaining well to our
west until later in the evening. What appears more likely at this
time is a broken line of storms late overnight into Friday along a
cold front. Forecast instability and shear appears sufficient for
strong to severe storms especially across the eastern half of the
region. Continue to monitor the forecast updates as details get
refined! Otherwise, elevated fire weather concerns are expected
across the far western zones on Friday due to warm, very dry, and
gusty westerly winds.
The weekend will remain fairly quiet other than some low rain
chances across Central Texas each afternoon. Light north winds will
persist on Saturday, but will quickly veer to the south Saturday
night into Sunday. Breezy conditions are expected Sunday into early
next week with above normal temps and highs in the mid 80s to low
90s by next Monday. Looking beyond...the next system is forecast to
arrive by mid next week.
Sanchez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
A band of rain with scattered embedded thunderstorms is currently
brushing across the southern parts of D10 that extends southwest
over the Glen Rose cornerpost. We have VCTS in all D10 TAFs
through 03Z with a TEMPO for -TSRA at GKY where TS is more likely
to continue on-station and halt all takeoffs and landings for a
prolonged period of time. Either way...thunderstorms will be over
all D10 terminals arrival legs and impact all aircraft landing or
departing for the next several hours. While VCTS only goes through
03Z, this may need to be extended through 04-06Z if redevelopment
occurs.
Winds are currently light out of the ENE and may even become out
of the ESE for a couple hours before returning out of the NE. A
strong cold front is currently moving through the West Texas
Panhandle that will move through the D10 terminals tonight around
09Z/ACT around 10Z. Gusty north flow will develop after FROPA with
gusty north winds continuing for most of the day before weakening
late tomorrow afternoon.
Bonnette
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 48 64 45 68 56 / 30 0 10 0 0
Waco 53 65 48 68 56 / 20 0 20 5 0
Paris 47 62 41 66 52 / 20 0 0 0 0
Denton 43 61 39 67 53 / 10 0 5 0 0
McKinney 45 62 41 67 54 / 20 0 5 0 0
Dallas 49 64 45 69 56 / 30 0 10 0 0
Terrell 49 64 43 69 55 / 40 0 5 0 0
Corsicana 53 66 48 70 56 / 30 0 10 5 0
Temple 52 67 48 68 55 / 20 5 20 10 0
Mineral Wells 43 64 41 68 53 / 10 0 10 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$