Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/21/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
540 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023
The weather for Tuesday will be similar today, only slightly windier
and slightly warmer. A cut off low that has been sitting off the
coast of Baja California will begin to move inland on Tuesday as it
opens up and becomes absorbed within the larger long wave trough.
Winds aloft will not be dissimilar to today`s winds aloft. The
morning will start out with a westerly 700mb wind max around 50-
55kt. The main question will be the degree of mixing that will occur
with high level cloud cover expected to remain overhead. Model
soundings depict deepest atmospheric mixing over the extreme
southwestern Texas Panhandle with mixing heights up to 700mb and
lower elsewhere. It remains unknown on whether high clouds will
inhibit mixing. However, it does not take much clearing to allow for
strong and rapid mixing evidenced by today`s strong winds in the
southern Texas Panhandle. Additionally, surface cyclogenesis around
the Raton Mesa will be much stronger than today leading to a
healthier pressure gradient. These strong downsloping winds will
send temperatures to around 15-25 degrees above seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023
The upper low west of the Baja Peninsula will transition to an open
wave across the Arizona/New Mexico state line by late tomorrow
night. The upper trough will quickly push off to the northeast ahead
of an approaching, deeper upper trough across the West Coast, but
will have enough impact on the region to bring a decent chance for
rain. This next system has the potential for additional high winds
across the region. Skies are expected to clear after the passage of
the first upper trough and will allow transport of stronger winds
aloft to reach the surface. Current guidance shows H700 winds of
over 50 knots across most of the region which will be the primary
driver for potential high winds. Surface pressure gradient will also
tighten across the region ahead of an approaching cold front, but
models show only a gradient of 8 mb over 200 miles which, by itself,
isn`t strong enough to produce high winds. A High Wind Watch has
been issued for the entire FA on Wednesday.
The cold front will remain well to our north as a shortwave breaks
away from the main the upper trough and progresses northeastward
across the Central Plains early Thursday. The cold front is still
progged to push into the region as a backdoor front by late Thursday
afternoon and will cool temps into the upper 40s/low 60s. Things
will remain fairly quiet Friday into the early weekend as the main
upper trough closes and retrogrades offshore while upper ridging
sets up just to our east. The upper low is expected to move back
onshore across southern California by Sunday and could bring a
potential for additional rainfall and wind by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023
The wind machine continues in West Texas. Overnight, speeds will
come down sufficiently to allow for most GA operations (still with
hefty crosswinds), but another windy afternoon is expected for
Tuesday with speeds supportive of at least some lofted dust. N/S
runways will likely see limiting crosswinds for most light
aircraft during the afternoon. Rides...meh, at best expect light
to moderate turbulence given the downward mixing of higher winds
aloft. Spoiler alert: Wednesday likely to be even worse.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>023-027-028.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for TXZ021>037-039>042.
High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for TXZ021>044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...26
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
545 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 126 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023
Area temperatures are well on their way into the upper 70s with
even a few 80s sprinkled in across the eastern Permian Basin. A
breezy day is also underway with gusts reaching into the 30 mph
range. This will continue through this afternoon as stronger winds
aloft mix toward the sfc. Winds should subside around sunset, but
may continue in the Guadalupe Mountains and Carlsbad area for a
few hrs post-sunset as the mountain wave slowly wanes. Overnight
lows will fall into the mid 40s west to lower 50s east which is
well above normal for this time of year.
On Tuesday, an approaching shrtwv trough will induce southwesterly
flow aloft and result in the expansion of the low lvl thermal
ridge. 850 hpa temperatures will warm around 20C-21C, vaulting
high temperatures well above normal into the upper 70s west to
lower 80s across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. It will
be another breezy day, with the potential for high winds
continuing across the Guadalupe and Delaware Mtns, although the
700 hpa jet will weaken slightly. By Tuesday evening, large scale
lift ahead of the approaching shrtwv trough will arrive across far
West TX and SE New Mexico. Rain chances will coincidentally
increase from W to E overnight as lift overspreads the region. The
best chance for moderate rainfall will be across the eastern
Permian Basin where low lvl moisture is maximized w/dewpoints
increasing into the lower 50s. Lapse rates will be steep enough
for isold thunderstorms to develop. Rainfall totals look to be
around 0.25" or less for most locations.
As we continue through late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
wind speeds will be on the rise, especially across the western
higher terrain as a Pacific front passes through the region. The
latest NAM 12 x-sec analysis indicates a pronounced mountain wave
signature at GDP by 09Z-12Z Wednesday, where winds will already be
gusting well over 60 mph. Strong winds will continue to
overspread the region after sunrise Wednesday morning.
Salerno
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 126 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023
The upper trough moves into Texas on Wednesday pushing convection
east and causing very windy conditions across most of the area
with the possible exception of the lower Trans Pecos. The amount
of blowing dust will depend on any rainfall amounts the previous
24 hours but it is doubtful we will see enough rain to prevent at
least hazy conditions from occurring. Cooler temperatures aloft
associated with the trough should bring cooler surface temperatures
as well on Wednesday. Stayed close to NBM guidance though there
is some concern it is a bit low. The last system to move through
the area on the 15th also brought strong winds and models were
showing cooler temperatures, but verified much warmer than
forecast.
Surface high pressure builds slowly south leading to a series of
weak cool air reinforcements into the weekend. Cool is a relative
term since temperatures, while cooler than today, will still be
above normal for this time of year with widespread highs in the
70s. A stagnant pattern over the western U.S. keeps temperatures
stable through the weekend.
Hennig
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023
VFR. Gusty W wind starting to slowly decrease and should drop off
overnight before picking up again tomorrow afternoon and becoming
almost as gusty. A High Wind Warning remains in effect through
Wednesday for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains...
rotar/mountain wave/severe turbulence will be hazardous for low
flying aircraft near the mountains.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 52 84 54 73 / 0 0 70 10
Carlsbad 51 76 46 67 / 0 10 50 0
Dryden 54 85 55 80 / 0 0 30 0
Fort Stockton 52 84 52 76 / 0 10 40 0
Guadalupe Pass 48 65 41 58 / 0 20 50 0
Hobbs 48 74 44 65 / 0 0 50 0
Marfa 41 76 39 68 / 0 10 40 0
Midland Intl Airport 51 83 52 73 / 0 0 60 10
Odessa 51 82 52 73 / 0 0 60 10
Wink 49 83 47 73 / 0 10 50 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ Wednesday night
for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
Delaware Mountains.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for Eastern Culberson
County.
NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST Wednesday for Guadalupe
Mountains of Eddy County.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for Central Lea County-
Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...24