Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/20/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
623 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight and Monday/
A second night of southerly flow should result in a more inland
surge of nocturnal stratus, but the strongly veered flow should
keep the bulk of the low clouds southeast of our area. However,
our Brazos Valley counties may experience this deck and/or the
associated patchy fog. The rest of the region will maintain a
dense plume of mid/high clouds from the Pacific, which should keep
Monday`s high temperatures only 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Many locations will reach 80F Monday afternoon with gusty mountain
cedar winds.
25
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 311 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023/
/Monday night through Next Weekend/
This week`s headlines include the unseasonably warm conditions
through the first half of the week, mid-week rain chances,
followed by cooler weather Thursday and Friday.
Warm and breezy conditions are expected on Tuesday with
temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal for mid February. Most
locations will see highs in the 80s with south/southwest winds
10-20 mph gusting to 25 mph. These winds will continue to bring
moisture into our area with mostly cloudy skies by Tuesday night.
The combination of moisture and clouds will keep overnight lows
in the 60s area wide.
As advertised over the last few days, an active weather period
will take place Wednesday as an upper-level trough moves across
our state and a Pacific front moves eastward. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will begin to develop late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as large scale ascent overspreads the region.
Coverage of precipitation will increase during the day on
Wednesday as the surface boundary brings additional lift over a
moist airmass. Forecast sounding show decent mid-level lapse rates
which will support the development of healthy updrafts for
organized storms. Further destabilization during the afternoon
hours may support the potential for strong/severe storms (mainly
across the northeast), but at this time it appears most of the
activity will be east of our area during this period. Continue to
monitor the forecast over the next few days as details get
refined. Otherwise, rainfall totals are expected to stay between
0.25-0.50 inch west of I-35 and 0.50-1.0 inch east of I-35. We
can`t rule out some locally heavy rain, but the potential is low
due to the progressive nature of this system. It is important to
mention that some locations across the west may miss out any
appreciable rainfall with this system. If they do, fire weather
concerns will increase due to the dry and gusty conditions behind
the front Wednesday afternoon.
A shallow cold front is expected to arrive late Thursday with
cooler weather behind it. Forecast high will go from the 70s/80s
on Wednesday to 50s/60s on Friday. Breezy northerly winds are
also anticipated to follow Thursday`s front. This front will
linger somewhere near the Texas Coast and retract northward as a
warm front sometime Friday and Saturday. This will trigger a few
showers as early as Friday, but the best chances appears to be on
Saturday and perhaps Sunday.
Sanchez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
Concerns: virga-induced turbulence today, low-level wind shear
potential tonight, and minor crosswind issues Monday.
The lower reaches of our subtropical plume extend into the mid
levels where virga has again produced some sub-cloud turbulence.
This should be largely above 10kft AGL and not an impact to
arriving/departing aircraft at the terminals.
Guidance is keying on the 40-45kt wind potential near or below
1kft AGL overnight and into the daylight hours of Monday morning.
However, unlike Sunday morning, steadier/gustier surface winds
should assure a greater depth of veering/increasing winds. As this
scenario is unlikely to meet criteria, LLWS will not be included
with this TAF package, but arriving aircraft Monday morning
(particularly GA) should be aware of these impacts on approach.
Stratus will surge into Southeast Texas late tonight, but the
strongly veered flow should keep this generally MVFR deck
southeast of Waco.
Westerly 925mb winds may reach 50kts Monday morning, some of the
momentum from which will veer and increase surface winds. Veering
to 230 with sustained speeds potentially topping 20kts, this would
introduce some minor crosswind issues at DAL and on the diagonals
at DFW.
25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 81 58 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 40
Waco 54 81 58 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 40
Paris 55 75 58 79 63 / 5 5 0 0 30
Denton 54 80 54 84 60 / 5 0 0 0 50
McKinney 54 78 56 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 40
Dallas 57 81 59 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 40
Terrell 55 80 58 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 30
Corsicana 57 81 62 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 30
Temple 52 83 57 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 30
Mineral Wells 53 82 56 86 59 / 0 0 0 5 50
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$