Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 02/02/23

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Lubbock TX

 614 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

The forecast remains mostly on track. Water vapor imagery continues
to indicate a plume of moisture advecting into the region from the
southwest ahead of an upper low centered over Baja California. As
cloud cover remains prevalent over nearly the entire forecast area,
temperatures have remained below freezing and any precipitation
should remain frozen for the rest of the day. Heaviest precipitation
remains expected over the southern Rolling Plains and an Ice Storm
Warning remains in effect until 9AM CST Thursday. Some of the models
are showing drier air wrapping around the aforementioned low. As
such, there remains a bit of uncertainty as to how long any freezing
rain will linger. In any case, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect for much of the rest of the CWA for the same time period as
even minor ice accumulations would cause travel impacts. The entire
longwave trough looks to move out by Thursday afternoon and much
quieter weather is expected beyond the near-term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

The long term forecast will be characterized by a progressive
pattern of short wave ridges and troughs moving across the central
to norther part of the CONUS into Canada. The progressive pattern
will lead to surface lee troughing/cyclogenesis in some form each
afternoon from Friday through Monday. As is typical with these
patterns, the downsloping winds will provide a healthy warmup in
temperatures through this time period. Temperatures into the lower
70s will be within reach on Sunday and Monday. Some separation in
the southern stream trough is possible around early to mid-week next
week. Spread in model guidance greatly increases during this time
period which lends to a low confidence forecast. The operational GFS
is sticking to a negatively tilted closed low lifting out of New
Mexico around Wednesday of next week but ensemble means both from
the ECMWF and GEFS maintain a positively tilted open wave trough
with little to no precipitation for our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

VFR conditions are expected to transition to MVFR tonight along
with increasing chances of freezing drizzle at all terminals.
Precipitation should be mostly light freezing drizzle, but
occasional light snow and sleet cannot be ruled out. Ceilings and
visibilities may lower into IFR criteria if precipitation is
falling. Precipitation is expected to come to an end early
Thursday morning. Ceilings are expected to gradually improve late
tomorrow morning with VFR conditions expected in the afternoon.
Aircraft icing is likely tonight through early tomorrow morning
at all TAF sites.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for TXZ023>026-
028>036-039>042.

Ice Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for TXZ037-038-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...17