Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 01/23/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1008 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
The cold front will move through the forecast area overnight
with drier air and increasing winds moving to the area toward
daybreak. Clearing skies and warming temperatures along with
wind gusts around 25 mph are expected for Monday and Monday
afternoon. High pressure fills in Tuesday so a dry and calm
weather day is expected. Windy, as a strong cold front passage
is expected, Wednesday afternoon with a chance for
thunderstorms. High pressure returns the dry and calm weather
for the latter half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Cold front continues moving into NW GA with the upper level
trough swinging into the central Gulf States. Area WSR-88D
network shows the majority of the showers continuing to push
toward the coast however a few moderate to heavy showers remain
in the western Midlands. The cold front and remainder of the
showers will move through the Midlands and CSRA by the early
morning hours with the cold front tracking offshore around
daybreak. Winds will begin increasing during the early morning
hours as the pressure gradient behind the front tightens and
winds aloft have an opportunity to mix down. Continue to expect
winds gusts during the early morning hours to reach lake wind
advisory and have kept the advisory in place from 4 am through 3
pm tomorrow afternoon. Although drier air will begin entering
the region toward daybreak expect some cloudiness to linger with
the upper level trough still upstream. Overnight lows will be in
the upper 30s north to mid 40s south.
Rainfall amounts through 5 pm set the daily record at CAE and
rainfall since has pushed the new record even higher. The
rainfall amounts have caused hydro related issues on area
river...see the hydrology section below for additional details.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move in throughout the day Monday as strong
northwest flow aloft and cold advection continues near the
surface. Gusty winds, particularly in the morning, are
expected with gusts to around 25mph. Sunny skies are anticipated
with abundant dry air in place, but cold advection will offset
this when it comes to heating. So high temps will remain in the
low-mid 50`s across the forecast area. The high pressure center
will settle basically overhead by early Tuesday morning, so we
should have a fairly good radiational cooling night as winds
will weaken substantially. Low temps Tuesday morning should fall
into the upper 20`s for most spots.
Calm weather expected again Tuesday as the surface high steadily
slides east across the area and broad mid-upper level ridging
builds in aloft. With little in the way of advection for most
of the day, high temps should climb to right around average, in
the mid- upper 50`s with sunny skies for most of the day. Cloud
cover will quickly return late in the evening however as
strengthening warm advection just above the surface and up
through 700mb begins to ramp up ahead of the rapidly deepening
trough along the central GoM coast. Temps will likely rise
throughout the night into Wednesday morning, with low temps
occurring before midnight in the upper 30`s-low 40`s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A fast moving trough and associated low pressure system will
quickly cut from the MS Valley towards the Ohio Valley
Wednesday, forcing a strong cold front across the Southeast.
Ahead of the front we are expecting strong gradient winds, gusts
over 30-40 mph likely, and fairly impressive warm advection as
the warm front rapidly lifts north. We also continue to see
remarkable agreement in the synoptic setup and general dynamics
across all guidance members for this system and confidence
consequently is very high in this frontal passage. The wind
profiles ahead of the line in all guidance members show very
impressive kinematics with backed surface near surface flow and
strong speed shear from 1-6km. So from a shear perspective, it
is a high-end environment. However, the thermodynamics remain
limited in all guidance members. GEFS and EC ensemble members
only muster a few hundred J/kg at the very most as mid-level
lapse rates and low level thermo profiles remain meager; the
warm sector essentially does not have enough to time to advect
in sufficient moisture- temps to moderate the area from the
previous day`s entrenched high pressure. Counter points to these
model solutions is that 500mb height falls are fairly strong in
the 12 hours ahead of the frontal passage and the strong warm
advection may be under- represented. Therefore mid- level lapse
rates may steepen a bit more that guidance indicates and low
level moisture may sneak higher. But in summary, a highly
dynamic and kinematic trough passage is expected but confidence
is fairly low in enough instability development to support a
widespread severe weather threat.
Beyond Wednesday, its a rinse and repeat of Monday-Tuesday with
strong dry and cool high pressure filling in behind the front.
High and low temps will likely remain near to below average
through this period with no credible rain threat until late next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread LIFR to IFR restrictions expected to continue in the
near term, then gradual improvement expected late tonight. VFR
and breezy Monday.
Widespread IFR to LIFR conditions currently. Regional radar
loop indicating light rain streaming across the region, with an
embedded band of moderate showers near the back edge. Radar
loops and latest hi res models indicate the rain should push out
of our forecast area (FA) around 06z. Late tonight, behind a
cold frontal passage, west winds will increase and drier air
will filter in, gradually scouring out the low level cloud
cover. Latest ACARS soundings and CAE VWP confirm BUFKIT time
height displays indicating directional and speed LLWS in the
near term. VFR and breezy Monday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR Tuesday though brief localized
ground fog possible at fog prone AGS around daybreak.
Restrictions expected Wednesday associated with another weather
system. VFR and breezy Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to heavy rainfall across the area today has pushed
river levels higher with additional rises over the next couple
days. These rains have pushed Stevens Creek at Modoc above 19/0
feet and into minor flood stage and the Edisto River near
Orangeburg is expected to reach minor flood stage Monday
evening??? Additional rainfall is expected on Wednesday which
could result in additional river level rises and and locations
reaching flood stage. Interests along area rivers are encouraged
to monitor the situation.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for GAZ040-
063>065-077.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 3 PM EST Monday for SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
&&
$$