Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 01/11/23

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

 538 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

...Aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

*A cold front will move southeastward though the area tonight as a
shortwave crosses the Northern Plains.

*A potent system then moves quickly eastward across the region
Wednesday. Moisture availability is mostly Pacific in nature as the
system moves through. Limited Gulf moisture combined with the quick
movement should keep precipitation amounts fairly light.

*Area is brushed with a Canadian/arctic airmass, which mostly
 flows into the Great Lakes Region Thursday, behind the system. A
 return to mild/tranquil conditions for Friday into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

A potent shortwave is progressing eastward toward the Intermountain
west this afternoon. A surface low will deepen tonight across
eastern Colorado downstream of the wave. Meanwhile a separate
shortwave within the northern stream will quickly dive southeastward
across Canada and Northern Plains. This will force a cold front
southward into the area tonight. As the surface low deepens further
across southeast Colorado tomorrow...the front will stall just south
of the NE/KS border during the day. Meanwhile there is a subtle
inverted surface trough that extends northward from the surface low
into the Nebraska Panhandle. As mentioned the system is quite potent
with significant height falls across CO tonight as the system ejects
toward the area. The moisture available for the system to work with
is of concern. There is little in the way of Gulf moisture advecting
northward ahead of the system...so nearly all the moisture
originates from the Pacific. The majority of this is aloft too...so
a pronounced dry layer in the mid-levels will have to be overcome
even before any precipitation can begin. Two main areas of concern
for snowfall/precipitation. First, near the inverted surface trough
Wednesday afternoon across the Panhandle into southwest NE. This is
where FGEN will be maximized...and a cross section from the area
does have this area fully saturated after noon across the Panhandle
and by mid-afternoon across southwest NE. A mix of rain and snow
will change to all snow as lift increases and saturation occurs
through the afternoon. By early evening the better FGEN becomes
focused in the second area of precipitation concern nearer the warm
front across KS. This will be focused mainly to our southeast with
precipitation ending during the evening across southwest NE.

Due to the dry air to overcome and quick movement of the system...
overall snowfall totals will likely be in the 1-2" range. A
localized 3" amount cannot be ruled out from portions of the
southern NE Panhandle into western portions of southwest NE near the
CO border. Winds do increase some as the surface low ejects into
southern KS later tomorrow afternoon and night. Gusts of 25-30 mph
will be possible tomorrow night across mostly far southern portions
of southwest NE in closer proximity to the surface low and tighter
pressure gradient.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

Upper level ridging then translates from west to east across the
CONUS this weekend. This will be downstream of the next significant
long wave trough moving onto the west coast. A mild weekend looks to
be in store beneath the ridging. Some impacts on high temperatures
will remain due to existing snowpack...but 40s are expected at
most all locations. The west coast long wave trough does advance
eastward into the region early next week. Could be something
similar to the system we will deal with tomorrow...where available
moisture will be limited but enough dynamics to force at least
some light precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2023

Guidance is hinting at some fog from the panhandle through
southwest Nebraska tonight but has been struggling to resolve
moisture in the boundary layer with lingering snow cover. Believe
there will be some fog but confidence in impacts at TAF sites is
low so will not include in TAFs. Will monitor and amend if needed.

Otherwise expect increasing mid/high clouds through tonight,
followed by some wintry precipitation advancing from the west.
Expect gradual lowering of CIGs will hold VFR until late in the
day Wednesday, followed by a surge of sub-VFR conditions moving in
form the north generally after this valid period Wednesday night.

Surface winds will generally have little impact on aircraft operations
and winds aloft will start to increase toward the end of the valid
period but the best chance for low level wind shear will be later
Wednesday night.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Taylor
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...MBS