Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 12/27/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Binghamton NY

 654 PM EST Mon Dec 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds and scattered flurries are possible tonight as
a weak wave passes through the region. Temperatures will start
a slow warming trend mid- week, with rain chances returning by
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM update...
Quick update this evening to incorporate the latest observations
into the forecast trends. Just a few minor changes to increase
cloud cover this evening and slightly decrease winds tonight.
Otherwise, the bulk of the quiet forecast remains on track.

333 PM Update:
Thick high clouds are increasing from the southwest, ahead of an
upper level disturbance. Some mid-level clouds have developed
over north-central PA, and these will pass through the region
this evening. Drier air at the surface and in the lower levels
of the atmosphere will limit the potential for anything more
than scattered flurries, with no accumulation.

Cold airmass is still in place, and temperatures look to drop
into the lower-10s again tonight, with a few single digits here
and there in rural areas. With less clouds and a little more
sun expected tomorrow, highs will rise into the 20s, and will
perhaps flirt with 30 in urbanized valleys.

Lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will remain north of Oneida
County, though a stray flurry can`t be ruled out in the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Forecast...

High pressure will be the dominant weather feature for this
period, bringing warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions.

A strong ridge of high pressure will build off the eastern
seaboard Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will enhance SW flow
across the area, advecting in a warmer, more moist airmass
beginning Wednesday. There may be a few flurries across the
Finger Lakes as the warm front moves through, but there is a lot
of dry air forecasted to be over the region which will hinder
any precipitation development. There will be a better chance for
a snow showers across northern Oneida county as the airmass is
more moist and upslope flow into the Tug Hill will allow for a
slight chance of light snow showers but no accumulation is
expected at this time. The front should be through the area
Wednesday afternoon, bringing dry conditions with SW flow and
WAA taking hold through the rest of the period.

Temperatures will warm into the mid 30s to low 40s on Wednesday
with overnight lows in the upper 20s. This will be the last
night for freezing temperatures through the weekend. Thursday
will be warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in
the mid 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM Forecast...

New Years weekend looks to be warm but wet.

The ridge of high pressure is expected to remain off the east
coast, keeping the area dry for much of Friday. A low pressure
system is expected to track along the NW periphery of the ridge
as it begins to weaken Friday night and slide eastward. This
will allow rain showers to move into the region Friday night
into Saturday. Another trough is expected to dig into the
central US Saturday and move into the region on Sunday,
continuing the chance for rain showers through Sunday night.
Model guidance was a little too aggressive with PoPs during this
period given the model uncertainty regarding the onset timing of
precip Friday night/Saturday morning. Because of this, PoPs were
capped to around 65% during this period.

With the ridge to the east and a trough to the west, SW flow
with WAA is expected to continue through the weekend. This will
keep temperatures well above normal for the New Year holiday.
Highs are expected to reach the upper 40s to low 50s across the
region. Cloudy skies and rain showers will keep temperatures a
tad lower than what model guidance suggests, but areas the see
prolonged sun and are dry could reach the mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR through 0Z tomorrow. A weak shortwave is passing
through NEPA so AVP could see some light snow between 2z and 5z.
Another shortwave moves through northern NY and with RME in the
lake moisture so some light snow is possible between 8z and
12z. SYR looks to have just too dry of air from forecast
soundings and some recent ACARS soundings from there so decided
to omit a tempo. All other terminals will likely stay VFR.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night into Wednesday...Occasional restrictions possible
in some light snow showers or flurries; especially Central NY.

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR expected.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/MPH
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG/MPH