Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 11/19/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL

 548 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

...00Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

Very cold afternoon for this early in the season with temperatures
only in the low to mid 20s! West winds of 15-25 mph are producing
wind chills in the single digits and teens -- brrr! Aside from
the cold, we`ve had a continuation of flurries and isolated snow
showers due to steep low-level lapse rates and some moisture being
picked up off the Mississippi River, particularly south of the
Quad Cities. This setup has led to a very narrow band of river
enhanced snow across southern Rock Island County into Henry (IL)
and Bureau Counties that has resulted in minor accumulations
generally at or below a half inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

This Evening and Tonight

Flurries and light snow showers will gradually diminish, setting
up a cold night with lows in the teens and wind chills in the
single digits.

Saturday

A clipper tracking through southern Ontario will drag a cold
front through the Upper Midwest which will reinforce the cold air
and result in windy conditions. Forecast highs are in the 20s
with wind chills holding in the single digits and teens through
the afternoon. NW winds are forecast to gust between 30 to 40 mph
through the day.

A mid-level wave passing across the area, and steep low-level
lapse rates, may help to generate isolated snow showers or areas
of flurries from the early morning through mid afternoon hours.
Very cold temperatures are expected at night with lows in the
single digits to lower teens.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

Initially quiet with a warming trend through the middle of next week.
There may or may not be a storm system for the holiday time frame.

Saturday night through Wednesday night
Assessment...high confidence

The model consensus has dry conditions for the area with a warming
trend to near normal temperatures by the middle of next week.

The global models show the main storm tracks are well north and
south of the area. Windy conditions are expected on Sunday as the
warm up commences.

Thursday through Friday
Assessment...low confidence regarding a potential storm system.

The energy that will develop a storm system around the holiday time
frame was east of the Kamchatka peninsula at roughly 45N/175E at
12z/18. Being over the ocean the only data available about the
system is satellite wind drift analysis and the occasional aircraft
moving through it.

This lack of data (common over the ocean) results in an initial
conditions problem for the models. As a result, each successive
model run is generating significant changes in storm evolution and
track. The track difference has been on the order of hundreds of
miles.

The 12z/18 deterministic run of the ECMWF now has the storm system
missing the area whereas the 00z/18 run had it impacting the area.
The 12z/18 EPS of the ECMWF qpf mean does suggest very light
precipitation Thursday into Friday with the much heavier qpf well
east of the area.

The 12z/18 CMC global has the storm system passing north and east of
the area with the potential for some rain followed by wrap around
snow showers once the colder air arrives. The 12z/18 CMCE suggests
the possibility of something occurring Thursday into Friday in the
mean qpf with the heavier qpf well east of the area.

The 12z/18 GFS splits the area with the system well north of the
area and a secondary system passing south and east of the area. The
12z/18 GEFS suggests a storm system for the area Thursday into
Friday in the mean qpf but the heavier precipitation is east of the
area.

Given the significant differences in the models and their respective
ensemble runs, the model consensus has slight chance pops Thursday
and Thursday night with a mainly dry Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 548 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions were observed early this evening
across the area, with some lingering light snow showers. Some MVFR
visibility reductions are possible under the these snow showers.
GOES-East satellite probabilities of MVFR conditions suggest a
likely potential (60-80 percent), which is expected to linger for
the next few hours or so. VFR conditions will settle in for a
time tonight, but some stronger flow aloft will lead to a brief
period of low-level wind shear. Then, another mid-level trough of
low pressure will sweep through the region Saturday, bringing yet
another round of light snow showers. Gusty northwest winds return
for Saturday, with gusts between 25 to 35 knots expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

Record Cold Highs for Saturday Nov 19th

Dubuque........14 in 1914
Moline.........15 in 1914

Record Lows for Sunday Nov 20th

Burlington......7 in 1914
Cedar Rapids....5 in 1914
Dubuque.........3 in 1914
Moline..........8 in 1880

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Schultz
CLIMATE...Uttech