Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 11/06/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
749 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022
.AVIATION...
Spotty showers will continue for PTK and the metro terminals until
the surface cold front clears the region over the next hour. The
better wind gust potential has subsided as rain potential ends, and
as the elevated wind layer has mixed out. KMBS will likely have an
extended period of mvfr overnight given wrap around moisture from
the departing low and lake enhanced moisture off of Lake Michigan.
Uncertainty for mvfr increases for locations south given the wsw
flow in place, . Wind gusts continue to decrease leading into the
late morning hours. Dry air will bring clear skies tomorrow, with
gusts to 25 knots by the late morning hours with daytime mixing.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for cigs at or below 5000 ft late tonight and overnight.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sat Nov 5 2022
DISCUSSION...
The Wind Advisory will remain in effect as a strong low pressure
system through Wisconsin and eventually over Lake Superior this
evening. Winds thus far have underperformed slightly as the ACARS
soundings for Detroit have shown an inversion that has held firm at
just under the 850 mb height level which have prevented mixing
depths from tapping into the stronger southerly flow. This has
resluted in gusts through much of the day in the 25-40 mph range,
though some locations have observed the higher gusts of 45 mph or
greater at times. Attention remains on the upstream cold front that
will move through the state later today. The highest wind potential
continues to be with the low topped thunderless line of showers
ahead of this front as it moves through the area mainly between 5 pm
and 9 pm. Isolated to scattered gusts of 55 mph or greater remain
possible as this line moves through southeast Michigan.
Southerly winds shift to southwesterly behind the front. Not
expecting a strong surge of cold air behind this front as 850 mb
temperatures are expected to remain above 0C. The lack of cold air
advection should allow winds to decrease between 9 pm and 11 pm
with a general lull in elevated winds during the early morning
hours. Low level winds remain elevated across southeast Michigan on
Sunday with 35-45 knots at 850 mb. Mixing heights will ultimately
determine how strong the wind gusts are tomorrow afternoon, but
moderate confidence exists for at least 25 mph gusts. Afternoon high
temperatures cool off slightly be still remain several degrees above
normal in the mid 60s.
Confluent flow will direct a surface high pressure with plenty of
dry air into southeast Michigan on Monday. Dry air will be
characterized by PWATs that fall to around 0.15 inches. The will
ensure a dry forecast with more zonal flow setting up to start the
week. High temperatures fall into the 50s for a day as the edge of a
cooler airmass to the north nudges into Michigan. Greater ridging
and return southwest flow into midweek will bring a warming trend
into the mid to late week period. This will result in potentially 70
degree high temperatures for some locations across lower Michigan on
Thursday as 925 mb temperatures climb well above 10C.
Ensemble and deterministic guidance has remained consistent in
bringing a long wave trough across the central and eastern US on
Friday and into the weekend. This system would send a cold front
through the region around Friday and bring a much colder weather for
next weekend with high temperatures possibly topping out around 40
degrees.
MARINE...
Low pressure over Wisconsin will push into Lake Superior tonight,
which will aid in the eastward progression of a cold front that is
now located over eastern Lake Michigan. The push of warm air over
the cooler water has produced a very stable environment which
allowed wind gusts to underachieve through the morning and afternoon
hours. This will not be the case along and immediately behind the
cold from, which is expected to sweep through all open water zones
between 5 PM EDT to 11 PM EDT. Confidence turns high to see a
period of high-end gales, as improved mixing depths increase along
and behind the front, which will tap into even stronger winds aloft.
This also brings a small, 30 minute to 1 hour window to tap into
storm force gusts between 50 to 60 knots, immediately along and just
behind the front. This window for storm force potential is expected
to remain limited in temporal scale, as winds quickly mix out behind
the front. Thus will preclude any upgrade to Storm Force Warnings.
Gales will remain possible through the morning hours Sunday behind
the front, until the low-level jet weakens by late tomorrow morning.
A Gale Warning remains in effect for all open water zones through
tomorrow morning in anticipation of the cold front.
A temperature gradient will form over the Great Lakes late tomorrow
evening into Monday, with cooler and unstable conditions across
northern Lake Huron, and warmer and stable conditions down towards
southern Lake Huron and locations south. This will enhance mixing
depths again towards the northern Lake Huron, which will bring
additional chances to see low-end Gales. A Gale Watch has been
issued for Lake Huron from Mackinac Bridge down to Sturgeon Point.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.
Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for LHZ361-
362.
Lake St Clair...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LCZ460.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Sunday for LEZ444.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......AM
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.