Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 11/05/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
623 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022
Apart from elevated to near critical fire weather conditions over
portions of the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau, the
primary story in the short term continues to be this afternoon`s
severe weather potential. Surface cyclogenesis has been observed
through the morning and early afternoon hours across central
Oklahoma as pronounced mid-level height falls begin to overspread
the Southern Plains from the west and northwest. Attendant
warm/moist advection has been evident through the period. A tongue
of upper 60s to low/mid 70s dew points extends along a north-south
line extending from approximately Tulsa, OK south through the DFW
metroplex, ultimately paralleling I-35 through Waco, Austin, and San
Antonio at this hour. The eastern peripheries of this corridor of
high surface moisture approximately parallels the Balcones
Escarpment in the EWX CWA, and has been sheltered from mixout thanks
to early day stratus coverage overhead. A modestly sharp east to
west dew point gradient thus exists along the I-35 corridor between
Austin and San Antonio as of 1:00 PM CDT. How this gradient survives
the test of clearing skies and boundary layer mixing remains to be
seen early this afternoon. The cold front connected to the OK
surface cyclone is currently progressing through the southern
Edwards Plateau, and is evident over portions of central Val Verde
County at this hour.
As discussed in the overnight forecast package, we continue to watch
the potential for two rounds of storms this afternoon. The first of
these, which will develop in the open warm sector well to the east
of the approaching cold front, should remain focused primarily over
North Texas and the ArkLaTex, where the greatest forcing connected
to the encroaching height falls will be present through the early
and mid afternoon hours. The 11:30 AM CDT update to the day 1
convective outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has been
adjusted in light of this, with the enhanced (level 3/5) and
10%/hatched tornado risks now residing to the north and east of the
CWA. We continue to monitor the potential for an isolated pre-
frontal storm between now and 5 PM CDT, however. Recent runs of the
HRRR have hinted at widely scattered development over portions of
the US 77 corridor through this portion of the afternoon, likely
connected to the corridor of strong southerly flow and moisture
advection discussed above. Whether or not this activity would be
able to become deeply convective remains uncertain. ACARS soundings
sampled from Austin, Corpus Christi, and San Antonio all continue to
show a stout capping inversion above the deepening afternoon
boundary layer. A sounding taken at 11:21 AM CDT further to the east
in College Station, however, depicts a virtually uncapped surface
layer with approximately 1200 J/kg of MLCAPE and 300+ m2/s2 of storm
relative helicity in the lowest kilometer. We will thus need to
watch areas north of I-10 and east of I-35 through the early-mid
afternoon hours closely, as any potential development in this region
that can manage to break through the cap would pose a threat for
large hail exceeding quarter size, damaging winds greater than 60
MPH, and isolated tornadoes.
The greatest convective potential continues to be connected to the
advancing cold front, which should be able to breach the remaining
cap as it impinges upon the above mentioned surface moisture
gradient later this afternoon and evening. The morning suite of high
res guidance continues to suggest that development will occur near
the dinner hour, somewhere in the vicinity of the I-35 corridor
between Austin and San Antonio. Given parallel alignment between the
mean deep layer wind/shear vectors with respect to the advancing
cold front, rapid upscale growth into some sort of linear structure
continues to appear likely. Damaging wind gusts reaching and
exceeding 60 MPH thus continue to be the number one potential hazard
with storms that develop along the front later this afternoon and
tonight, though an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out given backed
southeasterly flow/veering low-level hodographs along and ahead of
the approaching cold front. Isolated hail up to quarter size will be
possible as well. The greatest potential for this activity will
remain along and east of Interstates 35 and 37, with most
development likely remaining to the east of San Antonio. The front,
and any storms accompanying it, will depart to the southeast of the
area by 1 AM Saturday morning. Given the timing of potential
convective development, evening commuters along/east of I-35 should
pay close attention to the latest forecast updates and watch/warning
information through this afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022
Quiet weather is expected for the beginning of the long-term period
of the forecast as short-wave ridging prevails across the region.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be quite warm with highs in
the lower to middle 80s for most locations. Increasing moisture in
the lower levels of the atmosphere could lead to isolated to
scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Monday morning into the
early afternoon hours for much of the area. This is expected to be
the only chance of rain in the long-term with the rest of the work-
week remaining mostly dry. The next cold front looks to arrive Friday
morning and could bring the next chance of rain and cooler
temperatures. Will leave the forecast dry for now on day 7, but PoPs
may need to be introduced at later time if trends continue.
Regardless, ensemble guidance is on board with the cold front with
possibly much cooler weather returning to the area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022
Dryline/cold front approaching the I-35 corridor with SHRA/TSRA
developing along it. KAUS has the best PROBs for impacts and have
maintained the TEMPOs with brief restrictions to VSBY through 02Z
there. The cap should hold over KSAT/KSSF and have kept mention out
of those sites. Otherwise, VFR flying conditions will prevail tonight
through Saturday evening. Northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 KTs with
gusts to 25 KTs this evening will decrease overnight to 5 KTs or
less, then shift to south-southeasterly around midday on Saturday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 49 73 51 82 / 30 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 49 73 48 82 / 40 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 52 75 52 84 / 30 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 46 73 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 49 76 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 45 71 49 82 / 10 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 50 78 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 49 74 50 83 / 40 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 53 73 51 82 / 70 0 0 10
San Antonio Intl Airport 52 76 52 83 / 10 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 55 77 53 85 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...Quigley
Long-Term...29
Aviation...04