Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 10/28/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
829 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Windy weather conditions will be the main weather impact over the
next several days. The strong winds from earlier today will diminish
a bit overnight, but another windy day is expected on Friday and
again on Sunday. The next chance for widespread precipitation looks
to be towards Thursday of next week, as colder air also moves in.
&&
.UPDATE...
Wind speed/gusts are diminishing, but not quite as quickly as forecast;
therefore, increased wind speeds/gusts in the short term forecast to
ensure that they are representative, and interpolated out for a few
hours from there. Aside from adjusting winds, no further updates
are needed, at this time.
- Fogleman
&&
.AVIATION...
609 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022 (28/00Z TAF period)
VFR conditions prevail at all airfields for the duration of this TAF
period. Strong gusty winds are occurring along the Northern Rocky
Mountain Front. Gusty southwesterly winds are forecast for KGTF and
the airfields of north central Montana, with Low Level Wind Shear
conditions included in the KGTF TAF. Gusty southerly winds up to
20KT are included in the KEKS TAF. Funneled winds through north-
south oriented mountain valleys impact light aircraft across
portions of southwest Montana. From 28/12Z, a chance (25% to 54%) of
precipitation is forecast to occur across The Northern Rocky
Mountain Front. Expect mountain obscuration.
- Fogleman
KWYS TAF will not be issued again until airport operations resume
next spring.
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 609 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2022/
Tonight through Friday...Strong winds will likely diminish this
evening over North Central MT. Thus, the current high wind warning
might be cancelled a bit early. Winds will increase once again on
Friday afternoon, but are expected to remain below warning
criteria. Otherwise, fairly quiet weather conditions are expected
through Friday.
Saturday and Sunday...Generally a brisk westerly flow aloft will
be over the CWA through the period. Afternoon temperatures will
moderate a few degrees each day, but nothing significant. There is
the potential that strong winds could develop as early as Sunday
afternoon over portions of North Central MT, ahead of the next
cold front. High wind highlights might be needed over the western
portions of North Central MT with the potential for winds reaching
warning criteria over 80 percent at this time.
Monday through Thursday...A Pacific cool front will move from
west to east across the CWA Monday, bringing in slightly cooler
air for Tue/Wed. Precipitation chances will increase early next
week, but confidence is low for accumulating precipitation early
in the week for non mountain areas. On Thursday, a strong cold
front is expected to move southward through the CWA. This cold
front will bring in colder air for Thursday, along with increase
the chances for snow at all elevations. At this time, snow amounts
for next Thu look lower than previous model runs. Brusda
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 50 35 54 34 / 0 0 0 0
CTB 49 32 51 32 / 0 0 0 0
HLN 50 28 52 30 / 0 0 0 0
BZN 46 20 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
WYS 32 11 39 13 / 0 0 0 0
DLN 41 20 44 23 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 53 38 56 33 / 0 0 0 0
LWT 48 30 54 31 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
757 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 748 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
Scattered showers are moving into the area from the southwest this
evening, but recent ACARS soundings continue to show dry air below
700 hPa. This should lead to very minimal rainfall accumulations,
with the highest chance of measurable rain in Osage or Pawnee
Counties over the next 1-2 hours. Overnight, a low end risk of
showers will continue with the highest PoPs gradually shifting
towards SE Oklahoma. Low temperatures will fall to the mid to
upper 40s. No major adjustments were made to the forecast and it
looks to be in good shape at this time.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
The upper low will move into central Texas during the day Friday
before lifting northeast Friday night and Saturday. Widespread
showers will accompany this system from southeast Oklahoma into
west central Arkansas, with more scattered showers to the north.
Rainfall amounts may exceed one inch in some southern locales,
especially across far southeast Oklahoma. Temperatures will be
warmest in the north and coolest in the south over the next few
days due to thicker cloud cover and rain in the south.
Once this system moves out, dry and mild weather is likely early
next week, with a trend towards windy and warm later in the week
ahead of the next storm system that will affect the area just
beyond the range of this forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2022
A lead area of vorticity producing some scattered showers were
approaching parts of Eastern Oklahoma. Drier air at the low levels
could limit precip reaching the ground...thus will keep mention
out of KBVO/KTUL/KRVS this evening. Otherwise...scattered to
broken mid and high clouds are forecast to increase across the CWA
this evening and tonight in response to a low pressure system
dropping southeast into Western Texas. Late tonight into early
Friday morning...a slight chance of showers could be possible for
KMLC and will continue with a Prob30 group. During the day
Friday...scattered to broken mid and high clouds are expected to
continue across the CWA. Additional rain chances are possible
mainly for Southeast Oklahoma Friday as the low pressure system
moves eastward across Texas. Winds through the period are forecast
to be mainly easterly through the period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 47 67 49 64 / 20 10 40 30
FSM 47 67 54 63 / 10 10 70 70
MLC 48 62 50 62 / 40 30 80 50
BVO 44 66 46 64 / 20 10 20 20
FYV 40 65 49 60 / 10 10 50 70
BYV 42 65 49 60 / 0 0 40 70
MKO 47 66 50 62 / 20 10 60 50
MIO 42 65 47 63 / 0 10 20 40
F10 48 66 49 63 / 40 20 60 40
HHW 50 60 51 61 / 30 80 90 50
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20