Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 09/25/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1042 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2022
Forecast for tonight appears to be on track. Clear skies and
pleasant conditions overnight, with lows falling into the mid and
upper 60s over inland locations and low to mid 70s closer to and
along the coast.
A broad upper level ridge of high pressure that has been stretched
across the southeast CONUS and northern Gulf of Mexico will begin
to break down on Sunday as an upper level trough amplifies across
the eastern CONUS. This will drive a surface cold front down from
the northwest and into northern MS/AL by the end of the day on
Monday. Sunday morning will begin with mostly clear skies and dry
conditions, but boundary layer moisture will increase across our
forecast area during the course of the day, especially interior
areas along the amplifying trough and also ahead of the approaching
cold front. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop
ahead of the boundary, especially over interior portions of
southeast MS and southwest AL Sunday afternoon, where we will
continue to carry a 20% to 30% chance of convection. May see a few
lingering showers overnight Sunday night as the cold front
continues south and moves across most of our forecast area (except
for possibly the coastal counties), but PoPs will be less than 20
percent for Sunday night. By the Monday, the front should be just
offshore, with drier air moving into the forecast area from the
north and any chances for precipitation moving offshore.
Highs on Sunday will be continue to be rather hot, rising into the
lower 90s for most inland areas and mid to upper 80s closer to and
along the coast. Lows Sunday night will range from the mid 60s north
to lower 70s south. On Monday temperatures will be slightly cooler
in the wake of the front with mid 80s to lower 90s across most of
the area.
We are continuing to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Ian,
and some uncertainties still exist with regard to the track the
storm will take over the Gulf of Mexico next week. Ian will
continue moving west through the Caribbean through tonight before
turning more northerly over the next few days as it moves out of
the Caribbean and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Ian will
be moving into a very favorable environment and is likely to
rapidly intensify over the next few days and be a Major Hurricane
by Monday night or early Tuesday. The latest forecast track was
adjusted only slightly to the west, calling for a landfall south
of Tallahassee Thursday evening or early Friday morning. It should
be noted however that all of the western FL panhandle and
portions of southwest and south central AL are within the Cone of
Uncertainty and therefore we will be monitoring the storm closely.
A NOAA G-IV aircraft flew a mission earlier today assessing the
environment around the storm, and NWS a number of special upper
air observations will be occurring, so hopefully this tightens up
the track forecast once the storm emerges into the Gulf. For now
there remains a large amount of uncertainty in the forecast for
Tuesday afternoon and beyond, so further adjustments to the track
are possible.
/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 70 93 71 91 62 86 60 82 / 0 20 20 10 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 73 91 75 91 66 88 64 82 / 0 20 20 10 0 0 0 10
Destin 75 89 76 91 68 87 67 82 / 0 10 20 10 0 0 0 10
Evergreen 64 91 67 88 56 83 57 80 / 0 20 10 10 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 65 91 66 85 57 81 55 78 / 0 30 10 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 64 90 66 85 56 81 55 78 / 0 30 10 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 65 92 70 91 62 86 61 82 / 0 20 20 10 0 0 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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