Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 08/24/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
620 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
Generally weak northwesterly flow aloft will prevail thru the
mid-week periods with mainly drier/stable easterly component
lower level flow through Thursday. Expect some diurnal cumulus
again on Wednesday with highs a degree or so above late August
climo. This subtle day over day warming of the low levels is
expected to continue into the end of the week, so will generally
follow a modified persistence approach to daytime highs. The low
level flow looks to become more southerly during Friday with a bit
better moisture flux into the area by Friday night ahead of an
approaching upper trof.
In the very short term for late tonight, have added some patchy
fog in southeast Kansas.
Darmofal
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
The aforementioned weak upper trof looks to venture eastward
across the Plains on Saturday. Modest instability and shear look
to accompany this trof with decent precipitable water values. So
per previous discussion, scattered convection will provide some
with welcome rainfall for those that see it over the weekend,
though many still look to miss out. There is some hope for
additional chances for convection into early next week, if the GFS
solution in developing general troughing across the Plains comes
to fruition. This would suggest a tap of deeper moisture across
the area in the mean flow ahead of what could become a cutoff low
over the central high Plains. However other medium range models
are not as optimistic in this solution as the ridge builds over
the interior West. For now will keep rather modest chances for
precip in the forecast.
KED
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. VFR ceiling
will be possible during the afternoon with diurnal heating. The
only potential issue will be the development of dust devils which
are expected to develop at random in the afternoon. These small
vortices could create issues for smaller aircraft if they happen
to develop near an airfield and time of launch or recovery.
Metzger
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT 64 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
Hutchinson 60 92 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
Newton 61 91 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
ElDorado 62 91 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
Winfield-KWLD 63 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
Russell 60 93 62 95 / 0 0 0 0
Great Bend 60 92 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
Salina 61 92 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
McPherson 60 91 62 93 / 0 0 0 0
Coffeyville 63 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
Chanute 62 92 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
Iola 61 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
Parsons-KPPF 63 92 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ELM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
641 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
The main forecast concern in the short term will be thunderstorm
chances for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours.
There is a weak disturbance across northern Nebraska, which will
be the point of focus for storm development. Isolated storms have
already started to develop across Sheridan, Cherry and Holt
counties and are expected to continue to fill in to a more
scattered W to E line development along that area of focus. CAPE
values are marginal across northern Nebraska with the greatest
CAPE values around HWY 20 and northward where CAPE values will be
around 800 to 1000 J/kg. Bufkit forecast soundings also show some DCAPE
across northern Nebraska, generally across the corridor north of
HWY 20, which could lead to gusty winds within the stronger
storms. The greatest threats with these storms will generally be
small hail, gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall. Storms may
be slow moving in nature along the boundary, thus leading to
moderate to heavy rainfall over a localized area which could lead
to some localized flooding as well. Storms will be mostly
diurnally driven, thus shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected to mostly diminish after sunset.
As for Wednesday, there will be another chance for precipitation
as the boundary will be draped across northern Nebraska again
tomorrow, however maybe a little farther to the south into the
central Sandhills depending how far the boundary moves. Again
storms will be focused along the boundary and mostly diurnally
driven, with the potential for strong storms.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
A weak cold front moves through Northern Nebraska Thursday cooling temperatures
into the low to mid 80s. Temperatures south of the front, across
southwest Nebraska, will remain in the low 90s for highs Thursday.
There will be chances for thunderstorms Thursday, generally across
the Sandhills into northern and north central Nebraska. More
widespread precipitation chances will be possible Friday and
Saturday with another disturbance.
An upper level trof will push through the area Monday, there will
be another slight chance for precipitation along with cooler
temperatures for Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid
80s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022
Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions expected across central
and western Nebraska through this valid period.
Expect the showers and thunderstorms currently on radar will
remain generally along and north of highway 2 so no convective
impacts expected at KLBF. Expect the strongest storms have
migrated south of KVTN but there will still be some lingering
showers around into tonight, possibly through most of the
overnight. However, will confine VCTS and VCSH to the near term
and amend if confidence in later trends indicate showers will
continue.
Winds outside of thunderstorms will generally be light with little
impact to aircraft operations. However strong gusty winds are
expected near thunderstorms for the first couple of hours after
issuance.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...MBS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
228 PM PDT Tue Aug 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Continued hot and dry with near record temperatures forecast today
through Thursday. Typical afternoon breezes and efficient
overnight cooling will bring relief from the heat in the overnight
hours. A slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two later
this afternoon remains mostly confined to Mono and Mineral
counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday night)…
Not much to add in addition to what has been annotated in previous
discussions. An area of high pressure currently ridges across the
Great Basin into western NV with a near steady southwest upper flow
bringing mostly clear skies and drier conditions to the region.
Guidance shows a weak, but dry upper short wave briefly deepening
across OR and northern CA today before lifting northeast into Idaho
and northern NV Wednesday. The interaction between these upper
features will allow for a short lived northerly push of warmer temps
into the Sierra and western NV as well as filter northward some
monsoonal moisture into the southern portions of the eastern Sierra
and Mineral County.
The weak influx of mid-level moisture will be marginal at best, but
still enough to fire up a slight chance (5-10%) for a shower or an
isolated storm or two along the Mono-Mineral county convergence area
this afternoon as daytime temps reach their maximum. This cycle will
repeat once again Wednesday afternoon with storms flaring up mostly
in the southern Sierra before moving off east-northeast into Mineral
county.
Although some daytime temperatures over the region will be teasing
at earlier record values today and Wednesday, the typical mix of
warm summer temps and afternoon zephyr winds gusting 20-25 mph will
remind us that these are the “Dog Days of August!” -Amanda
.LONG TERM...
Well above average temperatures will continue Thursday. Current
forecast afternoon highs in the lower valleys will approach daily
records for August 25th. Once again the overall heat risk remains
minimal due to our typical afternoon zephyr winds of 20-25 mph
and cooler overnight low temperatures. We`ll also keep the slight
15% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and
evening in Mono and Mineral counties.
A near repeat of Thursday is in store for Friday only with a
slight decrease in high temperatures. So while it will still be
hot with above average temperatures, records look less attainable
on Friday. Once again, we can expect typical afternoon zephyr
winds and also isolated showers and thunderstorms in Mono and
Mineral counties.
A weak inside-slider moves through the northern Great Basin on
Saturday. This feature will lead to an uptick in winds Saturday
afternoon and evening where gusts of 35 to 40 mph are conceivable
from Mineral County north towards the NV/OR border. Temperatures
will tumble a few more degrees across the area, but will still
remain above normal for late August. Ensembles are in good
agreement with ridging building back into the western U.S. for
Sunday into the start of next week. Temperatures will remain above
average along with slight 15% chances of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms in the central Sierra. -McKellar
&&
.AVIATION...
Higher chances for VFR conditions at regional terminals with typical
afternoon zephyr winds gusting between 20-25kts through the forecast
period. Fires continuing in CA/OR will bring a hazy pall to the
western NV, but no impacts to CIG/VIS are forecast. Temperatures
will be near 100 degrees in the valleys the next few days which
could create some density altitude issues, as well as light to
moderate low-level turbulence for some rotor-craft or fixed-wing
aircraft operations. -Amanda
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno