Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 07/31/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO

 835 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Forecast pretty much evolving as expected with scattered showers
and a couple thunderstorms mostly confined to the mountains this
evening. Those will continue to weaken and diminish late this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Partly cloudy skies
can then be expected overnight.

Storm coverage is expected to increase Sunday afternoon as the
mid/upper level moisture plume shifts slightly northward on the
periphery of the ridge. This is already handled well in the
forecast so just slight adjustments per latest trends and
observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022

The upper level ridge that brought high moisture levels to the
region over the last week has flattened a bit keeping the monsoon
further south. This was seen on morning ACARs soundings over Denver
where values were half of what they were yesterday. Currently
conditions are too dry and stable over the lower elevations thanks
for drier southeasterly flow to support convection. This is not the
case for the mountains where a combination of some weak moisture,
upslope and decent CAPE of 400 to 700 joules will support storms
into the evening. The storms will struggle to strengthen with weak
steering flow but could still drop a few tenths of an inch of rain
in a short amount of time so burn area flash flooding potential
continues to be limited. Storms will dissipate in earnest after 6 pm
with clearing skies overnight and lows a tad warmer than last night
due to some WAA near the surface.

For Sunday, models are showing the ridge pushing north slightly once
again with PW values increasing across the CWA by 0.15 to 0.30
inches over the mountains and back to over an inch for the lower
elevations. MUCAPE values increase with 500 to over 1000 joules for
the plains and 400 to 700 across the mountains. Model soundings have
steep low level lapse rates with DCAPE almost 1200 joules. This
equates to storms most likely forming over the mountains minus any
other initiation stimulus that will push across the plains and most
likely bring some moderate rainfall with gusty winds by the late
afternoon hours. There is potential for a stronger storm east of a
Limon to Sterling line with bulk shear of 25 to 35 knots where large
hail and high winds will be possible. Temperatures will continue to
upward trend with highs approaching the mid-90s for the plains and
70s to low 80s for the high country.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Sunday night through Monday night, upper level high pressure will be
centered over New Mexico with a weak northwesterly flow aloft over
Colorado. Some monsoonal moisture trapped under the ridge combined
with daytime heating should result in isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and storms in the high country with
mostly dry conditions expected elsewhere. With PW`s in the mountains
generally less than 0.75" light to moderate rainfall is expected.
However, there could be a couple pockets of higher PW`s; therefore
can`t rule out some brief heavy rain with one or two of the storms.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, the upper high flattens in response to an
upper level shortwave moving across the Central Rockies. This may
allow a weak cold front to move into Northeastern Colorado late in
the day which may help spark off some storms across the plains. The
mountains should continue to see scattered afternoon and evening
showers and storms.

On Wednesday, upper level high pressure rebuilds over the Rocky
Mountain Region with monsoonal moisture beginning to increase over
the CWA. As a result, isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
showers and storms are expected, most numerous over the higher
terrain.

Thursday into the Weekend, the upper high is progged to shift
eastward into the Central Plains States. This pattern should open
the door for a better monsoonal plume to move into the forecast
area. As a result, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
increase with locally heavy rainfall possible. On Saturday, the
models are showing another shortwave moving across the Northern
Rockies with an associated cold front moving across Northeastern
Colorado. This front should bring slightly cooler temperatures to
areas east of the mountains. At this time, it`s difficult to
determine the impact the front will have on convection and
precipitation chances across the plains. If the front comes in late
in the day, convection could be enhanced due to moisture convergence
along the boundary. However, an early frontal passage may result in
stable conditions which would tend to limit convection.

Above normal temperatures are expected through the period. Monday
and Tuesday look to be the hottest days of the week with max
temperatures expected to reach the mid to upper 90s on the plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 552 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022

VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday. There is just a slight
chance of a renegade outflow boundary this evening from storms
near the northwest gates, otherwise fairly normal diurnal wind
patterns will prevail til 21Z Sunday. Appears scattered
thunderstorms will develop across the mountains and move east into
the lower elevations Sunday afternoon. This will bring a fairly
high chance of gusty and variable winds to the Denver area TAF
sites after 20-21Z Sunday, as well as a chance of TS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 836 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are weakening, and
even the stronger storms earlier this evening produced a few quick
tenths of an inch of rain but no flooding reports.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected across the
high country through the period. The atmosphere will be somewhat
drier Sunday and Monday with most of the storms producing light
to moderate rainfall. however, can`t rule out some brief heavy
rainfall with one or two of the storms. Monsoonal moisture is
expected to increase on Thursday and continue into the weekend
with a better chance for flash flooding in and near the burn
scars.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...jk
AVIATION...Barjenbruch
HYDROLOGY...Barjenbruch/Bowen/jk