Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/19/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Reno NV

 154 PM PDT Sat Jun 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper low will trigger scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon across NE California and western
Nevada. Otherwise expecting a seasonably cool weekend continues with
chilly overnight lows and patchy frost possible across the Sierra. A
return to clearer skies and warming temperatures will be the story
for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...This Weekend.

Scattered showers have developed across NE CA and NW NV this
afternoon as the core of an upper level low drifts over the region.
This low will result in an increase in instability and deformation
forcing to allow isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon.
Gusty outflow winds around 45 mph, localized moderate rainfall, and
snow pellet showers are possible (>8000 feet). Favored areas for
storms still favor western Lassen County (20-30% chance) with about
a 15-20% chance for the Sierra northward of Mono county and western
Nevada valleys along the US 395/I580 corridor. Shower and isolated
storm activity will begin to dissipate by early evening as the low
shifts eastward and daytime heating weakens.

Skies will begin to clear overnight which will allow for a chilly
night with lows in the lower 40s for western Nevada valleys or about
10 degrees below mid-June averages. Sierra valleys will likely see
sub-freezing lows tonight which could produce patchy frosts, so
be sure to protect any sensitive vegetation if needed.

Temperatures on Sunday will begin to rebound about 5-10 degrees with
highs in the lower 70s across western Nevada and mid-60s for Sierra
valleys. However, it still may feel chilly with brisk northerly
winds remaining in place with gusts of 20-25 mph. This may also
result in choppy conditions across area lakes. Otherwise, partly
cloudy skies will prevail as shallow cumulus form with afternoon
heating. Fuentes

.LONG TERM...Monday Onward...

A quick-moving shortwave will drop through northern CA and NV Monday
with much of the more significant forcing being directed toward
northeast NV. Some mid to high level clouds and a mostly light
easterly wind in the morning hours will shift more northerly by the
afternoon. High temperatures will remain in the high 70s to low 80s
for western Nevada, while much cooler temperatures over the higher
elevations in the mid 40s to low 60s.

By Tuesday, high pressure will begin to build back over the West
Coast and bring more typical June-like temperatures to the region
with daytime highs across western Nevada crossing into the low to
mid 90s and low 80s for the Sierra. With the warming temperatures,
the late afternoon zephyr winds will rise up with the occasion by
Wednesday and continue each afternoon until weeks end.  Winds will
generally have gusts reaching into the 25-30 mph range.

Blended guidance continues to message the appearance of isolated
thunderstorms by Wednesday with higher chances further south in Mono
County. Blended guidance indicates roughly a 15-20% chance of
thunderstorms each afternoon from Wednesday through the end of the
week. High pressure building closer to the 4-corners region shows a
weak signal for the increase of moist southerly flow into the
southern Sierra which would boost chances for thunderstorms by the
end of next week.

Beyond Friday ensemble model guidance still spins those mixed
messages with the European and GEFS ensemble guidance trading off
whether lower pressure with unsettled conditions or more stable
with continued dry conditions prevail over the region after next
weekend. But looking at the general trend, high pressure looks to
dominate much of the desert southwest and southern Rockies and will
be the primary factors affecting conditions over the Sierra and
Great Basin. Let’s see which wins out! -Amanda

&&

.AVIATION...

* Showers are pushing across northeastern California with a 15-30%
  chance of isolated thunderstorms for northeast California and far
  northwestern Nevada through 03Z today. Latest model guidance
  indicates increased potential for showers and thunderstorms for
  western Nevada and along the Sierra southward to Mono County into
  the evening. Mountain obscuration and lower visibility still
  possible with shower activity through the evening.

* Winds will be substantially lower today than previous days with
  light winds continuing into the evening. Possible brief periods of
  gusts 25-30 kts this afternoon in and near showers for Sierra and
  western terminals.

* Moderate turbulence should continue above FL100 through the
  afternoon to 03Z with lighter general aviation aircraft still
  feeling that occasional severe bump below FL100 into the early
  evening. Also plan on localized turbulence and erratic winds in
  the vicinity of any thunderstorms that develop through the evening
  across northeastern California to the north-central Sierra, and
  western Nevada.

-Edan/Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

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http://weather.gov/reno