Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/17/22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Raleigh NC

 940 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will be over central NC through tonight. A
cold front will move through the area Friday and early Saturday.
Cool high pressure will build in Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 PM Thursday...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms moved across the region from
northwest to southeast, bringing much needed rain to nearly all
locations. The bulk of the precipitation has moved south into South
Carolina, although a tongue of precipitation is persisting north
from Laurinburg up to Pinehurst and is slowly moving south, still
producing some lightning. This rain should move south of the area in
the next hour or so.

However, a cluster of thunderstorms developed around Washington DC
this afternoon and moved south, expanding slightly in coverage back
to the mountains and currently extends along the I-64 corridor.
While the HRRR and RAP initialize with these storms, they
immediately disappear one or two hours into the forecast, so there
is little numerical guidance to follow. This may be because the
HRRR/RAP model soundings for Richmond show a very strong inversion,
while a recent ACARS sounding does not show nearly as sharp of an
inversion, and storm dynamics may be overcoming the lack of surface
instability. These storms could make their way into northernmost
counties by 11pm-12am, and have added a slight chance of
thunderstorms to the forecast. The Storm Prediction Center has kept
a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through most of Virginia, and
continued the marginal risk across our forecast area. Eventually
these storms should die out, but cannot rule out that these storms
may make their way more than one county deep into North Carolina.
Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

...A Slight Risk of Severe Storms with Damaging Wind Gusts and Large
Hail, along with Dangerous Heat Indices...

The upper ridge will push west on Friday helping to lower heights
aloft, however southwesterly surface flow will continue a moist,
warm airmass over the region for another day. Mostly clear skies
early in the day will allow for excellent insolation across the
region, then cloud cover increases in the afternoon as storms
develop. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s by the
early afternoon, and with dewpoints in the uppers 60s to low 70s,
heat index values will vary from 100-107 degrees, with highest
values across the southern Coastal Plain and Sandhills. A Heat
Advisory will likely be needed for areas with the highest
temperatures.

The warm and moist airmass will be in place as a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Storms will develop ahead of the
front, and with MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg, and weak shear, storms may
be more pulse-like rather than more organized. SPC now has the whole
area under a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe storms. Damaging wind
gusts will again be the main threat, however large hail is possible
in the strongest storms.

Storms will exit the area to the southeast by late evening, with
mostly dry conditions expected across the region overnight. The
drier air and lower temperatures will be delayed behind the front,
not arriving until later Saturday. Lows Friday night will be mild,
ranging from the upper 60s N to mid 70s S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

The weekend looks beautiful with dry and cooler air moving in as
high pressure builds in from the NW. Highs will be in the mid and
upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s in
the north, to low 60s in the south.

As the high pressure slowly moves offshore Monday and Tuesday,
temperatures early next week will quickly climb back into the upper
90s. By mid week dry air mass continues to dominate the area but the
strong mid-level ridge will be over NC and hazardous temperatures in
the upper 90s to low 100s are expected. Dew points will be generally
in the 60s. For now heat indices for Wednesday and Thursday will be
below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 940 PM Thursday...

Although precipitation has cleared all terminals, a high overcast
remains across the region. A broken line of east-west oriented
showers and thunderstorms extends from Richmond back towards
Blacksburg, and these storms remain strong. Although no additional
precipitation is included in the TAFs, cannot rule out the
possibility of one of these storms reaching one of the northern TAF
sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast, with winds veering
from the southwest to the west overnight. Model predictability with
thunderstorms has been very poor this week, and with only a slight
chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for Friday afternoon, no
mention of precipitation has been made in the TAFs.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ084>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JJT
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...JJT
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Green