Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/16/22
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
522 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are currently in place across northern and central New
Mexico early this evening with just a few high-based fair weather
cumulus clouds being observed over the south central to east central
parts of the state. Moderate breezes are ongoing in many locations
with stronger breezes in the northeast highlands. Many areas will
undergo a weakening of wind speeds after sunset, but the eastern
areas of the state may remain breezy much of the night. Moisture
will increase over most of eastern and also in some central areas of
New Mexico tonight into Thursday. This will lead to isolated to
scattered thunderstorms into the afternoon Thursday. Any downpours
will be very brief-lived with gusty downburst winds likely being the
bigger impact. Hot temperatures are still expected in many locations,
leading to high density altitude readings and perhaps poor aircraft
performance.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...256 PM MDT Wed Jun 15 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Today should be the last sunny and dry day across northern and
central New Mexico. Moisture will begin to return tonight into
Thursday setting the stage for a mix of wet and dry storms with gusty
winds on Thursday afternoon. A traditional monsoon moisture plume
will set up over western New Mexico on Friday before inching eastward
through the weekend into early next week. This will mean scattered
to numerous wetting showers and thunderstorms will return to portions
of New Mexico. Unfortunately, this will also increase the potential
for flash flooding over and downstream of recent burn scars. Though
most of the storms will favor western and central New Mexico through
the weekend, eastern New Mexico may see storm coverage increase by
the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
Another dry and mild night tonight with mostly light winds.
Changes are on the way, though, starting Thursday, as moisture
begins to increase everywhere except maybe the far northwest.
Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain and
it`s east slopes, and the southwest mountains late Thursday and
Thursday night. The chances of burn scar flooding will be fairly
low through Thursday night, as the deeper moisture will not arrive
until Friday and beyond. Strong and erratic wind gusts will be a
concern, though.
LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
At long last, finally, a traditional monsoon pattern is expected to
set up on Friday. A 594-595dam high will be centered over OK/KS and
a deep trough will be located over the west coast. This will allow
deep southerly flow over AZ and NM to draw up monsoon moisture. The
moisture plume looks to favor areas near the NM/AZ border on Friday,
then as the aforementioned trough inches eastward, the plume should
also shift eastward, becoming more focused over western and central
NM, especially on Sunday. PWATs around an inch or slightly higher
will be possible within the plume. Additionally, the trough will
start to eject east-northeastward on Sunday allowing for some extra
forcing and a sharper back edge to the plume as a dry slot pushes
across AZ. This may result in greater coverage and/or more storm
organization. Storm motion Friday through the weekend should
generally be toward the north around 15 to 20 mph. The trough will
shift over the central and northern Rockies on Monday, and as flow
becomes more southwesterly over NM, the plume should lean over,
becoming oriented from southwest to northeast across the state.
Little change is expected on Tuesday. Though we are ready for the
rain, the rain will also increase concern for burn scar flash
flooding and debris flows through the period.
CHJ/34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A back door cold front has made it from Raton to Clovis today, but
is washing out, now. Moisture advection will be on the rise Thursday
through Friday. Burn scar flooding should be limited Thursday into
Thursday night. However, deeper layer moisture will reach all of
central and northern NM Friday, and will continue through at least
the middle of next week. The rain would be welcomed by most, but so
many recent fires and resulting burn scars have scorched the ground,
leaving widespread ash. Wetting rain on top of the ash will create
flash flooding and debris flows, which could be catastrophic for
places downstream of the burn scars.
CHJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
837 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Bottom Line Up Front:
Convective trends are somewhat unclear through the late evening,
but in the near term (within the next hour or so), signs point
toward a more hostile environment for maintenance or development
severe convection over the CWA. Conditions may eventually become
more favorable, but are thought not to be imminently favorable for
severe storms, so we`re not anticipating a watch until/unless
there is a change in convective trends.
In-Depth Details:
The thinking hasn`t changed significantly from the previous
discussion below. We`ve noted that thunderstorm cores over the DVN
CWA near the MS River have struggled with eastward extent toward
the far northwest CWA. This is likely owing to the mixing out of
dew points that occurred this afternoon and resulting in
increasing stability eastward (lower MLCAPE and increasing MLCIN)
on latest SPC mesoanalysis. With the cold front itself now pushing
into extreme northwest Illinois, the narrow moist axis featuring
strongest instability may be even more narrow than depicted on the
mesoanalysis graphics.
With the above being said, since we`re headed toward sunset and
loss of solar insolation, there is reason to cast doubt on near
term hourly guidance continuing to insist on the instability axis
folding eastward through the late evening, and thus lowers
confidence on an appreciable severe threat extending eastward into
the northwest and western CWA and points east. A mini segment of
convection has fired on the immediate cold front where there is
better boundary layer convergence from northeast Cedar County Iowa
to southwest Jo Daviess County. However, even here the strongest
core is quite small in areal extent, and with north-northeast
motion of individual cores, any threat from this cluster/segment
may stay west of our northwest CWA counties. Furthermore,
convective coverage is much more sparse south of this until
reaching intense convection over far northeast MO and southeast
IA.
Given the instability question and currently more hostile
environment in place approaching sunset, after collaboration with
SPC there are not imminent plans for a watch. We will continue to
closely monitor trends, as favorable deep layer bulk shear for
severe weather will remain in place, so if we see signs of
improving support for convective maintenance and intensification,
watch issuance may become needed for portions of the CWA.
Previous Mesoscale Discussion
Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Starting to see a slow increase in coverage of convection over
southern IA into northern MO. Interestingly, there are a couple
bands of scattered storms developing over IA, one on the leading
edge of an area of stratus likely the result of some differential
heating and pre-frontal convergence axis. Second broken band of
convection is developing on the back edge of this stratus,
coincident with the cold front itself.
It appears on satellite imagery that the front is catching up to
the pre-frontal convergence axis from the south over northern MO
with the distance decreasing over SE IA. Water vapor imagery shows
the tail end of the forcing with vigorous trough is starting to
overspread this area and the gradual uptick in convective
coverage is likely due in part to the arrival of this forcing.
Modified 19Z sounding from DVN confirms SPC objective mesoanalysis
which suggests an axis of largely uncapped 2500+ J/kg of MLCAPE
in a ribbon ahead of the front where this convective is
developing. Seasonably strong winds aloft are resulting in
favorable deep layer shear (30-40kt 0-6kt) to support these storms
continuing to intensify.
Farther east, over most of our CWA low level moisture mixed out
today and dewpoints have dropping into the low/mid 60s. Recent
ACARs sounding out of MDW suggests atmosphere where the dewpoints
mixed out is far more stable and capped, evident by the complete
lack of cumulus over our CWA. Short range guidance suggests that
the moisture/instability axis along and just ahead of the front
will advect eastward this evening, which if it does, would allow
convection over IA to largely maintain its intensity at least into
the mid to perhaps late evening. Confidence in how fast the
moisture/instability axis spreads east is low and if it spreads
east more slowly or convection were to outrun it, then storms
could fizzle much more quickly this evening, lowering our severe
threat.
At this point, will need to continue to monitor convective trends
and also how quickly the moist axis spreads east over the next
couple of hour to get a better feel for our eventual severe
threat. If instability does indeed recover, shear would certainly
support a severe threat, possible as far east as the Chicago area
by late evening.
- Izzi
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Through Thursday night...
A recent hand surface analysis places a cold front stretching from
west-central Wisconsin southwestward through central Iowa and the
far northwestern corner of Missouri. Upper-level flow atop the
frontal boundary is strong and sheared (12Z MPX RAOB sampled 80kt of
flow at 300mb), thanks to an unseasonably strong trough anchored by
a 990mb low centered in southern Manitoba. Ahead of the front, the
lower airmass is warm, moist, and unstable with surface temperatures
in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s
supporting MLCAPE in the neighborhood of 2500-3000 J/kg.
Thunderstorms should erupt within the next hour across northeastern
Iowa and southwestern Minnesota ahead of northeastward-lifting
frontal wave currently located in central Iowa (and 1-minute data
from GOES-16 shows initiation may well be underway). With time,
additional thunderstorms should develop along the front behind the
wave just west of the Mississippi River, though there are questions
about exactly how many storms will develop owing to less favorable
low-level confluence along the front as well as a degree of
suppression behind the wave. A higher coverage of thunderstorms
would favor a quick "upscale" evolution into linear segments that
would track eastward into northwestern Illinois owing to deep-layer
shear vectors oriented nearly parallel to the frontal boundary. In
such a scenario, damaging winds and even a few brief (EF-0/EF-1)
tornadoes would become a distinct threat especially along and just
north of sustained bowing segments. In addition, the threat area
would extend well into northern Illinois and perhaps as far east as
Lake Michigan owing to sustained forcing along an eastward-surging
cold pool. On the other hand, a lower storm coverage would support a
sustained supercell storm mode with a threat for all hazards, though
with less eastward extend (no further than about I-39) as supportive
upper-level lift departs well to the north. In both scenarios, the
threat window is from about 7 PM to midnight. Our forecast favors a
"middle of the road" approach with thunderstorms decaying across
northern Illinois and before the reach Lake Michigan, though the
early evolution of convection will dictate which of the two
aforementioned scenarios is most likely. Stay up to date on the
forecast this evening, especially if west of I-39 where changes for
thunderstorms are highest regardless of which scenario plays out.
Not to be forgotten, a LLJ is expected to develop overhead and along
the southern periphery of the aforementioned surface wave lifting
into Wisconsin this evening. Depending on the efficiency of mixing,
gusts may approach 45 mph from about 5 to 8 PM CDT, highest across
northeastern IL / across the Chicago metropolitan area.
Behind the thunderstorms and indeed the cold front, temperatures
will fall with readings in the mid 60s likely near Rockford and mid-
70s in Chicago toward daybreak. Note - the record minimum
temperatures for today (June 15) are still in jeopardy at both
Chicago and Rockford.
Borchardt
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022
Thursday morning through Wednesday...
The front will slow down and almost stall in the vicinity of our
southern CWA. The exact location may be dependent on tonight`s
convective activity. There is a slight chance for some lingering
showers/storms in the extreme southern portions of my forecast area
Thursday morning, but believe the majority will be south of our
area. High pressure throughout the atmospheric column will ridge in
behind the front. Cooler air will also arrive with the frontal
passage, as evident from 925 mb temperatures dropping from around 26
C down to the lower 20s Thursday, and into the teens by this
weekend. With the surface ridge axis to our west Friday into Sunday
morning, and associated north to northeasterly winds, temperatures
will be closer to seasonal, with highs in the mid 80s on Friday, and
low 80s to upper 70s on Saturday. In addition, dewpoints/humidity
will also drop for the first half of this weekend, with dewpoints in
the upper 40s/lower 50s by Saturday.
The ridge axis will shift to our east Sunday afternoon, allowing
southerly flow to return, with an increase in temperatures and
moisture. Dewpoints are forecast to climb back up to around 60 F
Sunday afternoon, and continue to climb Monday and Tuesday, ending
up into the upper 60s to around 70 by Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures will climb into the 90s once again for the first half
of next week. With such high temperatures and dewpoints, apparent
temperatures will approach if not exceed 100 F once again next
Monday and Tuesday. A couple of upper waves will rotate just north
of the forecast area, with possible showers and storms skirting the
Illinois/Wisconsin state line early next week. Further out, long
range models indicate a front possibly moving through next Wednesday.
BKL
&&
.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs...
Aviation Forecast Concerns:
1. Strong SSW wind gusts this evening in the upper 30kt range
possible
2. Thunderstorms possible this evening into early overnight
Greatest severe threat toward RFD
3. Gusty WSW winds to near 30kt Thursday afternoon
SSW winds increased early this evening to near 40kt across
portions of the area out ahead of the approaching cold front
thanks to mixing into a strengthening low-level jet (LLJ). These
gusty winds remain possible through 3Z, but may become more
sporadic in nature toward the end of that period as mixing begins
to ease.
We are also monitoring thunderstorms currently developing across
northern Missouri and southeast Iowa. These are moving quickly to
the northeast with the entire line and cold front very slowly
shifting east with time. This will begin to push into the area
toward RFD around 1-2Z. Did push the timing of the TEMPO for TSRA
at ORD/MDW an hour later to 5-7Z with a slightly slower eastward
advancement of the southern portion of that line expected. The
greatest potential for severe storms exists toward RFD with
conditions becoming less favorable with time and eastward extent
for the Chicago area terminals.
With the passage of the cold front winds turn more westerly and
ease overnight with clearing skies. Gusty winds are expected on
Thursday out of the WSW with gusts up to 30kt possible in the
afternoon.
Petr
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning...ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-
ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039-ILZ103-
ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108 until 8 PM Wednesday.
Heat Advisory...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006 until 8 PM Wednesday.
IN...Excessive Heat Warning...INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019
until 8 PM Wednesday.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...nearshore waters until 1 AM Thursday.
&&
$$
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
359 PM MST Wed Jun 15 2022
.UPDATE... 0Z Aviation Discussion...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A building area of high pressure will result in hot temperatures
the next few days. Excessive heat will occur across the lower
elevations on Thursday with highs surpassing 110 degrees in many
locations. Moisture will surge into the region Friday through at
least Sunday bringing a risk of showers and thunderstorms,
especially across the higher terrain of the eastern half of
Arizona. Saturday will see the highest risk. With the increasing
moisture, temperatures will cool down to near to slightly below
normal levels for the upcoming weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Ridging has begun to build over the desert southwest in the wake
of an upper level low that continues to eject to the northeast
into the Great Plains. Meanwhile, another deep trough just off the
Pacific northwest is slowly moving south. Visible satellite shows
completely clear skies across the state suggesting a very dry
airmass is in place. ACARS soundings confirm this with PWAT values
near 0.40" under westerly flow at this time. Model forecast
geopotential heights will increase a bit more on Thursday, with
the strongest warming signal in the lower atmosphere. This should
lead to temperatures warming a few degrees over yesterday, with
several additional degrees of warming on Thursday. High
temperatures will rise to above 110 degrees for much of the lower
deserts, especially across south-central Arizona. An Excessive
Heat Warning remains in effect for Thursday in these areas. This
means that temperatures will rise to levels that will pose a
health risk to most of the population and as such, proper heat
precautions should be taken to avoid any heat- related illnesses.
The probability of reaching 110+ falls off considerably on Friday
according to NBM probabilities, and is less than 10% across the
area.
As we head into the upcoming weekend, the overall synoptic
pattern will go into an amplification phase with a deep trough
expected to be located just off the west coast and an anomalous
ridge expected to be located over the Central Plains. This pattern
will result in a deep southerly flow that will advect subtropical
moisture from northern Mexico into Arizona, with some contribution
from Hurricane Blas which will pass well to the south of Baja
Mexico. There will be a fairly strong moisture gradient with the
highest moisture content across eastern Arizona. The multi
ensemble mean PWAT rises to near 1.5" for Phoenix, which is about
200-250% of the climatological norm. Further west, PWAT values
will max out near 1" along the AZ/CA border, with even lower
values to the west of there.
On Friday, showers and thunderstorms will increase across
southeast Arizona, with some indication of a few storms across
Gila County. As the deepest moisture will not have arrived yet and
dynamic forcing will be relatively weak, storm activity and
coverage is not expected to be particularly widespread. NBM PoPs
rise to around 10% near Phoenix and 30-35% over Gila County. Due
to a dry sub-cloud layer, any storms that do develop will bring a
risk of wind and blowing dust.
Saturday appears to be the day with the highest thunderstorm
coverage as this will be the day when moisture will be the
greatest. In addition, a north to south oriented jet streak over
the Great Basin region will stretch into the area, which will
help provide some diffluence aloft and increase wind shear values.
Latest NBM PoPs show a 30-40% of rain near Phoenix increasing to
50-60% across the higher terrain, with PoPs much less to the west
of Maricopa County. Forecast soundings indicate that CAPE values
will likely exceed 500 J/KG and possibly 1000 locally, indicating
plentiful instability. However, due to the lowest portion of the
atmosphere remaining quite dry, DCAPE values will also be quite
elevated. As a result, any thunderstorm activity will be capable
of producing lightning, strong wind gusts, blowing dust, as well
as localized heavy rainfall activity. The risk of heavy rain will
mostly be confined to Gila County. Gradient winds will also pick
up Saturday and Sunday due to the proximity of the trough axis,
with ECWMF EFI showing slightly elevated values for wind speed in
the 0.5 to 0.7 range.
As the trough axis moves further inland into the Great Basin and
intermountain west region by Sunday and Monday, drier
southwesterly flow will settle in and push the moisture eastward
towards extreme east and southeast Arizona. Storm chances will be
on the decline with NBM PoPs at less than 25% across Gila County
and less than 10% elsewhere. With the increasing moisture and as
well as cloud cover and storm coverage, high temperatures over the
weekend will cool down to between 100-105 degrees, which will be
near to slightly below normal for this time of the year.
As we move into the middle of next week, WPC cluster analysis
shows high confidence in a strong area of high pressure across the
Great Plains Region with the majority of solutions also showing
some troughing along the west coast. This is a favorable set up to
allow some moisture to return to the area, with the multi model
ensemble mean PWAT rising to near 1.25" by the middle of next
week. Considering the marginal moisture, long lead time, and lack
of obvious forcing mechanisms, it is unclear whether this will
lead to much if any additional rainfall activity at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2300Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major changes from previous TAF package. Conditions remain
tranquil overall. Winds will generally favor light diurnal
tendencies, with speeds mostly remaining below 10 kts aside from
some typical afternoon breeziness, perhaps slightly more-so near
BLH. Can`t rule out smoke-induced haze from nearby wildfires
causing some slantwise visibility issues at times across the
Phoenix area. Mostly clear skies will persist.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will warm up over the next couple of days with highs
across the lower deserts ranging between 104-107 degrees
Wednesday and 110-113 degrees Thursday. MinRHs through Thursday
will range between 5-10% with overnight recoveries between 15-40%
(lowest values in the lower elevations of south-central Arizona).
Generally light winds are expected through Friday, with the
typical afternoon breezes. An increase in moisture is expected
beginning on Friday and continuing through weekend with MinRH
values increasing above 15% from Phoenix and points eastward.
Along with the increasing moisture, will come an increasing chance
for thunderstorm activity, with Saturday have the highest storm
potential, mainly across the higher-terrain of south-central
Arizona. Any thunderstorm activity will have the potential to
produce strong and erratic winds, lightning, as well as localized
heavy rainfall. Due to the dry lower atmosphere, dry lightning may
be possible. Additionally, wind speeds will increase Saturday and
Sunday with gusts to 20-30 mph possible. Hot and dry weather
returns by early next week.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Thursday for
AZZ530>556-559>562.
CA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM PDT Thursday for
CAZ561-562-565>570.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...Hodges/Lojero
AVIATION...Heil/Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Hodges/Lojero