Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/15/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
715 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Night/
A warm and breezy evening is taking shape across the region. A
plume of Saharan Dust continues to move through, making the skies
a little hazy with a faint orange tint. This is ahead of the
strawberry supermoon tonight...so those (select few) unaffected by
passing cloud cover may be in for a nice treat tonight. The winds
have been exceptionally gusty out of the south this afternoon with
some locations within D/FW gusting up to about 40-45 mph a few
hours ago. This is a result of the area being sandwiched between
weather systems with multiple low pressure systems to our west and
a strong high pressure center to our east. The winds tonight will
weaken some, but remain gusty as warm and moist advection prevents
the boundary layer from fully decoupling. A surge of gulf moisture
will also move north, making tomorrow morning feel like a typical
Summer morning...warm and humid. Most will wake up to a blanket
of early morning stratus that should eventually lift and scatter
by mid to late tomorrow morning.
An upper low is currently moving north along the upper Rio Grande
Valley and will settle into the Hill Country and Concho Valley
tomorrow. Typically, this kind of system would bring showers and
thunderstorms but not this time. The system is battling abundant
dry air in the mid-levels, so the lift and moisture flux is simply
not enough to overcome this. It`s main effect on our weather will
be passing upper clouds for the next couple days before it fills
and gets absorbed into the mean flow late this week. The cloud
cover will weaken insolation and allow afternoon temps to mostly
remain below 100 degrees for the first time in several days.
Unfortunately, the lower temperatures will be counteracted by
increased moisture, so heat index values should still be in the
low 100s.
Bonnette
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 121 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022/
/Thursday through Tuesday/
An upper level subtropical high will be the main player in our
weather through the long-term period. While it will primarily be
centered across the lower Mississippi Valley, the strength of the
ridge will ebb and flow as it interacts with other synoptic
features. The ridge will be in its weakest state over our region
Friday and Saturday when a slug of moisture and a weak upper
level disturbance will move in from the east. (This system is
currently responsible for the convection across Georgia and South
Carolina today.) The increase in precipitable water will result
in some surface instability Friday afternoon and Saturday
afternoon across the southeastern zones. However, subsidence will
remain strong, and forcing for organized lift will be weak or non-
existent. Will show just a 10% chance of showers/storms in the
southeastern half of the CWA where moisture will be best for stray
late afternoon and early evening showers/storms.
Otherwise the ridge will ever so slightly build over the region
again by Sunday and Monday with no chance of rain next week. High
temperatures will be in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees Thursday
through Sunday, but warm a couple degrees next week. Lows will
range from the mid to upper 70s through the weekend, but also
increase a few degrees next week. Due to the increased moisture
Friday and Saturday, heat index values will likely meet or exceed
105 degrees across the eastern zones and will remain near this
level into next week. This likely means heat advisories will
return for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor.
TR.92
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/
Saharan dust is lowering the slant range visibility for ARR/DEP
aircraft as a plume of dust moves across the region this evening.
Lower dust concentration tomorrow morning should limit it`s impact
during sunrise. Gusty south winds and VFR will prevail tonight
before a surge of MVFR stratus moves over the area in the early
morning. Ceiling heights should flutter between 1800-2200ft, but
for the most part cloud bases should remain AOA 2kft. Expect the
MVFR ceilings to first move over the ACT terminal around 06-08Z,
then the D10 terminals an hour or two later. The ceilings will
then lift and scatter to VFR by mid-morning, but passing upper
clouds will allow for intermittent VFR ceilings through the
remainder of the TAF period.
Bonnette
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 96 79 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Waco 77 96 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Paris 74 92 75 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Denton 77 95 77 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
McKinney 77 95 77 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dallas 78 96 79 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Terrell 76 96 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Corsicana 76 95 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Temple 76 95 74 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Mineral Wells 76 97 75 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$