Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/11/22
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
548 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with light to moderate onshore flow will lead to
some fairly pleasant flying. It will be hot, even at 1000 feet
above the ground, so be mindful of the heat if your aircraft
doesn`t have air conditioning. ALI and VCT could get some patchy
VFR/IFR fog early Saturday morning, but the sun and heat will
settle back in by mid-morning.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 423 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022/
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Concur with deterministic output from the NAM/GFS/ECMWF that the
CWA will remain under the influence of an upper level ridge during
the period. Issued another Heat Advisory for Saturday owing to the
expected combination of temperature and relative humidity values.
Although low CIN/significant CAPE expected during the afternoon
Saturday (NAM deterministic), slightly below normal PWAT values
and anticipated subsidence (deterministic output) expected to
preclude convection.
LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The upper level ridge will continue to build Sunday and remain in
place through the end of the long term forecast. Meanwhile the high
pressure in the mid-level stationed over the Texas Panhandle Sunday
will gradually move eastward towards the Tennessee Valley through
early next week. Global models are showing a low pressure system
developing across the Eastern Pacific by mid-week, which if it does,
will send a weak inverted trough across South Texas Wednesday which
could aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will also be possible
Friday across the Victoria Crossroads as models are showing a
shortwave moving towards the west just north of our region.
Dangerous heat index values will continue Sunday with values ranging
from 110 to 114 degrees. By Monday, heat index values will subside
to more elevated levels ranging from 105 to 109 degrees through the
end of the week. With temperatures increasing to near 109 Monday and
105 Tuesday across the Rio Grande and Western Brush Country,
elevated fire weather conditions will be possible relative humidity
values are expected to drop below 30% with winds gusting over 25
mph. A Saharan Dust Plume currently moving across the Caribbean Sea
is expected to reach South Texas Saturday night into Sunday morning
and persist through the end of the work week which could lead to
respiratory issues. Please check with TCEQ for air quality forecast.
Hot temperatures will continue through Tuesday with temperatures
ranging from the lower 90s near the coast to near 106/108 degrees
out west. By Wednesday, cloud cover is expected to increase bringing
temperatures down just a touch ranging from the lower 90s near the
coast to near 102 degrees out west. Lows each night will remain
consistent ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Last but not least, minor coastal flooding is possible Monday
morning as moderate to strong onshore winds persist nearing a full
moon. P-ETSS is indicating near 1.0 ft of inundation Monday morning
during high tide, occurring again Tuesday morning during full moon.
MARINE...
Persistent generally moderate onshore flow expected tonight
through Saturday. Moderate to strong southeasterly winds will
continue Sunday and remain in place through mid-week next week.
Therefore, Small Craft Exercise Caution Conditions can be expected
with periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions throughout from
Monday through Wednesday. Winds Wednesday will subside to more of
a weak to moderate onshore flow. There is currently a slight
chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Friday
afternoons.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 77 97 78 96 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
Victoria 76 101 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Laredo 77 106 77 106 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Alice 74 103 76 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Rockport 80 93 81 93 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cotulla 77 108 77 109 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Kingsville 75 100 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Navy Corpus 80 90 81 91 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the following
zones: Bee...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal San
Patricio...Duval...Goliad...Inland Kleberg...Inland
Nueces...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...La Salle...Live
Oak...McMullen...Victoria...Webb.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday For the following
zones: Bee...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal San
Patricio...Duval...Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland
Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...Inland San
Patricio...Jim Wells...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...
Victoria...Webb.
GM...None.
&&
$$
LS/77...AVIATION