Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "ACARS" "MDCRS" "AIRCRAFT" "TAMDAR" "AMDAR" "WVSS" received at GSD on 06/06/22

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service North Platte NE

 609 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

Debris from overnight convection is finally pushing off to the east
and allowing for some sun across central and western Nebraska. Also
evident in satellite imagery and observations is a dryline starting
to push into western Nebraska along with a diffuse lingering old
frontal boundary draped east/west across the region. Expect the
dryline will push eastward this afternoon into an increasingly
unstable airmass and trigger another round of severe storms across
Nebraska. Anticipate initial development of discrete cells along the
dryline by mid to late afternoon with cells growing upscale and
likely organizing into an MCS as they move into the more favorable
warm, unstable environment across south central NE this evening.
With steep mid/upper level lapse rates and substantial CAPE in the
hail growth zone expect large to very large hail will be a primary
threat. Wind threat is a bit uncertain and will depend a good deal
on how much diurnal heating can occur and if very steep lapse rates
can develop in the boundary layer ahead of the dryline. Shear is not
particularly robust but hodographs in the vicinity of the lingering
frontal boundary are well curved hodographs and will support
rotating updrafts so will have to watch for tornadogenesis as
well. Will also be keeping an eye on landspout potential
especially early this afternoon as the SPC non-supercell tornado
parameter is quite robust across far northwest Nebraska

Severe convection will likely be pushing off to the east and
southeast early this evening with some showers/storms lingering
through the overnight period. However, another MCS moving across SD
will start pushing into northwest Nebraska late tonight. Severe
potential to the northwest appears much diminished late tonight but
a hail/wind threat is not out of the question. By Monday morning the
lingering frontal boundary will have buckled to a northwest to
southeast orientation and serve as a focus for more thunderstorm
development Monday afternoon into the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

Flat, progressive upper flow will send another patch of short waves
into the High Plains as the sluggish surface boundary continues to
sag southward. There looks to be enough instability and shear
present to support a marginal threat for severe thunderstorms
primarily along and south of Interstate 80 until the boundary can
finally push a bit further south and exit the region.

Thereafter, ensemble guidance is in good agreement in keeping the quasi
zonal progressive flow regime across the nation with gradual
amplification of an eastern trof/western ridge through late next week.
Expect the net result will be cool temperatures and active weather
with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms continuing each day
through the middle of next week, with Thursday having potential to
be rather busy with another bout of severe storms. A trend toward
warmer temperatures and a bit less active weather then
becomes established heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

Near term TAFs will be driven by the convective environment until
later this evening when vigorous thunderstorms move southeast out
of the area and other smaller storms dissipate. Will use VCTS at
both KLBF and KVTN but also include a TEMPO for thunder at KLBF
since radar trends and mesoscale guidance add confidence to
timing and location.

Later tonight a surge of low level moisture will move into
Nebraska from the north. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions at KVTN but
not confident in southern extent of the low clouds so will TEMPO
to MVFR at KLBF Monday morning and reevaluate as new guidance
becomes available. Expect a return to VFR at KLBF no later than
early Monday afternoon, but improvement will wait until late in
the day at KVTN.

Outside of thunderstorms, winds will generally be light with no
significant impact to aircraft operations.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...MBS